October 6, 2020 5:25pm

Optimism isn’t all it’s made out to be

Pre-open indication results: 8 HITs and 0 MISS

An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector.  I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't.

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The Dow closed DOWN -375.88 points (-1.34%), the S&P closed DOWN -47.66 points (-1.40%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -177.88 points (-1.57%)

 

Henry’omics:

Stocks fell on Tuesday after President Trump instructed White House officials to halt negotiations on further coronavirus stimulus, sparking a sharp reversal in the major market benchmarks.

 

This morning, I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: too much risk in the air. Same theme, different session: Skim if you can trim, buy if it will fly and sell if compelled! … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11576

 

Pre-open indications: 8 HITs < SELL into Strength - Aduro Biotech (ADRO +$0.59), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.07), Biostage (BSTG -$0.01), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -0.33), Mesoblast (MESO -$0.69); BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.46), Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.38) and Vericel (-$0.27) and 0 MISS

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Tuesday opened positive at 17/15 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 21/13 and 1 flat, closing negative at 11/23 and 1 flat;
  • Monday opened positive at 31/3 and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day at 33/1 and 1 flat, closing positive at 33/1 and 1 flat;
  • Friday opened negative at 1330 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 8/26 and 1 flat, closing negative at 8/26 and 1 flat;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was the usual LOW with 3 of the 11-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 4 of 23-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 11-upside were +0.03% (GBT) to +6.60% (SAGE) while the 23-downside of -0.07% (BLUE) to -8% (SLDB);

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Mesoblast (MESO), Homology Medicine (FIXX), Solid Bioscience (SLDB), VOYAGER Therapeutics (VYGR) to name 5 of the 23 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Aduro Biotech <now Chinook therapeutics (KDNY)>, ReNeuron (RENE.L) to name 5 of the 11 inclining of the 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -1.21% and XBI closed down -0.79%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +4.26% and XBI closed up +4.94%
  • Friday, the IBB closed down -2.05% and XBI closed down -2.19%

 

Tuesday’s (11 of 11) incliners:

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +3.97);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.26 after Monday’s +$6.32),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.97 after Monday’s +$7.08);
  • Aduro biotech (ADRO +$0.59);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$0.50);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.46);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.24 after Monday’s +$1.94);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.05);
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.04);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.02 after Monday’s +$4.79);
  • Athersys (ATHX +$0.02);

Tuesday’s (10 of 23) decliner:

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$2.28);
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.69);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.68);
  • Solid Bioscience (SLDB -$0.38);
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.38);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.38);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.38);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.38 after Monday’s +$2.07);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.36 after Monday’s +$4.85);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.33 after Monday’s +$3.80),

Closing flat –1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 11-upside were +0.03% (GBT) to +6.60% (SAGE) while the 23-downside of -0.07% (BLUE) to -8% (SLDB);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 33-upside were +0.52% (RENE.L) to +13.64% (SLDB) while the 1-downside of -0.30% (MDXG);
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 8-upside were +0.09% (AXGN) to +20.91% (SLDB) while the 20-downside ranges from -0.61% (VCEL) to -35.18% (MESO);

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

Negotiating a stimulus bill concluded until after the election

Infection cases <Million>:

  • Tuesday 7.45 M cases
  • Monday 7.44 M cases
  • Friday 7.28 M cases

Tuesday’s death rate totaled 210,195 after Monday’s 210.013, Friday’s 207,818, Thursday’s 206,036, Wednesday’s 206,036 and last Tuesday’s 205,547 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

Upside volume: 

  • Tuesday: 3 out of the 11-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 12 out of the 33-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday: 1 out of the 8-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +0.10 points or +0.36% at 28.06
  • Monday was up +0.33 points or +1.19% at 27.96
  • Friday was up +0.93 points or +3.48% at 27.63

Downside volume:

  • Tuesday: 4 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 1 out of the 1-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday: 10 out of the 26-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

October, the first month <October> of Q4 …

Tuesday closed negative with 11 advancers, 23 decliners and 1 flat 

Monday (10/5) closed positive with 33 advancers, 1 decliner and 1 flat 

Friday closed negative with 8 advancers, 26 decliners and 1 flat  

Thursday (10/1) closed negative with 21 advancers, 12 decliners and 2 flats

 

The Bottom Line: as I stated this a.m.’s post … “too much risk in the air …

Same theme, different session: Skim if you can trim, buy if it will fly and sell if compelled!

Right again … is getting to be a constant!

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.