October 16, 2020 4:57pm

A fluctuating Q4’s October, Q4’s so far: 1 neutral, 7 positive and 4 negative closes of my 35 covered companies

Pre-open indication results: 5 HITs and 1 MISS

Week in review …

An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector.  I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't.

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The Dow closed UP +112.11 points (+0.39%), the S&P closed UP +0.47 points (+0.01%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -42.31 points (-0.36%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose on Friday, boosted by strong U.S. retail sales data …  first gain in four sessions.

The market also got a boost after Pfizer (PFE) said it would apply for emergency use of its coronavirus vaccine as soon as it reaches certain safety milestones that it expects to have in late November.

However, lawmakers in Washington continued to send mix signals about progress toward a stimulus deal.

 

This morning, I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: buy the few bottoms and sell any highs. More weakness is just around the corner, “our” stem, cell and gene therapy universe is sensitive to fluctuating waves of investor sentiment … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11592

 

This a.m.’s Data Docket: Retail sales jumped 1.9% in September, easily topping a Dow Jones estimate of 0.7%. Excluding autos, sales were up 1.5%. That’s also better than a 0.4% estimate.

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Pre-open indications: 5 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.00); BUY: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.46), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.08), bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.82), SELL: Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.11) and 1 MISS < Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.54)>

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Friday opened negative at 15/17 and 3 flats, strayed positive at the mid-day at 23/8 and 4 flats, closing positive at 20/12 and 3 flats;
  • Thursday opened negative at 9/24 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 10/21 and 4 flats, closing positive at 17/15 and 3 flats;
  • Wednesday opened positive at 22/10 and 3 flats, strayed negative at the mid-day at 15/18 and 2 flats, closing negative at 11/22 and 2 flats;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 15/18 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 14/17 and 4 flats, closing positive at 20/12 and 3 flats;
  • Monday opened negative at 10/22 and 3 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 14/18 and 3 flats, closing neutral at 16/16 and 3 flats;

 

Key metrics:

Sector volume was the usual LOW with 7 of the 20-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 3 of 15-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

Friday’s percentage (%) of the 20-upside were +0.24% (VYGR) to +9.95% (CRSP) while the 12-downside ranges from -0.18% (SGMO) to -9.35% (BCLI);

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Mesoblast (MESO), Vericel (VCEL) to name 5 of the 12 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Editas medicine (EDIT) to name 5 of the 20 inclining of the 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed up +0.36% and XBI closed up +0.37%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -2.27% and XBI closed up +0.19%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -1.31% and XBI closed down -1.85%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +0.48% and XBI closed up +1.37%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +0.79% and XBI closed up +0.25%

 

Friday’s (10 of 20) incliners:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$9.94 after Thursday’s -$1.48, Wednesday’s -$1.69, Tuesday’s +$3.66 and Monday’s +$1.14);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.70 after Thursday’s +$2.50);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.86 after Thursday’s -$0.46, Wednesday’s +$0.10, Tuesday’s +$0.70 and Monday’s -$2.40);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.46);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.41 after Thursday’s +$0.09, Wednesday’s -$0.61, Tuesday’s +$0.55 and Monday’s -$0.87);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.11 after Thursday’s +$0.29, Wednesday’s +$0.29, Tuesday’s +$2.68 and Monday’s -$3.83);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.82 after Thursday’s -$0.51, Wednesday’s -$0.96, Tuesday’s -$1.64 and Monday’s +$0.79);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.75 after Thursday’s -$1.30 formerly Aduro Biotech ADRO);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.67 after Thursday’s -$0.60, Wednesday’s +$0.23, Tuesday’s -$0.26 and Monday’s -$0.89);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.54 after Thursday’s +$1.14, Wednesday’s -$2.08, Tuesday’s +$0.29 and Monday’s +$1.02),

Friday’s (12 of 12) decliner:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.80 after Thursday’s +$1.08, Wednesday’s -$4.71, Tuesday’s +$1.90 and Monday’s +$1.05);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$1.43 after Thursday’s -$1.40);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.16 after Thursday’s +$0.58);
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.37 after Thursday’s -$0.59);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.37);
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.29 after Thursday’s +$0.28);
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.17 after Thursday’s +$0.33);
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.11);
  • MiMedx (OTC Pink sheets: MDXG -$0.10);
  • Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS -$0.05);
  • Athersys (ATHX -$0.02);

Closing flat –3 – ReNeuron (RENE.L), Biostage (BSTG) and Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 20-upside were +0.24% (VYGR) to +9.95% (CRSP) while the 12-downside ranges from -0.18% (SGMO) to -9.35% (BCLI);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 17-upside were +0.02% (ALNY) to +7.07% (PGEN) while the 15-downside ranges from -0.89% (SGMO) to -11.86% (CLLS);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 11-upside were +0.41% (NTLA) to +5.61% (SLDB) while the 22-downside ranges from -0.06% (SAGE) to -5.55% (FIXX);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 20-upside were +0.25% (MESO) to +4.58% (GBT) while the 12-downside of -0.23% (ALNY) to -4.78% (PGEN);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 16-upside were +0.44% (QURE) to +5.92% (AXGN) while the 16-downside of -0.52% (ATHX) to -11.78% (PGEN);

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

Average daily new infections are 14% higher than a week ago.

Infection cases <Million>:

  • Friday 8 M cases
  • Thursday 7.91 M cases
  • Wednesday 7.86 M cases
  • Tuesday 7.8 cases
  • Monday 7.77 M cases

Friday’s death rate totaled 218,097 after Thursday’s 216,904, Wednesday’s 215,971, Tuesday’s 215,101, Monday’s 214,882 and last Friday’s 212,789 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

Upside volume: 

  • Friday: 7 out of the 20-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 4 out of the 17-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 5 out of the 11-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 3 out of the 20-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 3 out of the 16-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +0.44 points or +1.63% at 27.41
  • Thursday was up +0.57 points or +2.16% at 26.97
  • Wednesday was up +0.33 points or +1.27% at 26.40
  • Tuesday was up +1 points or +3.99% at 26.07
  • Monday was up +0.07 points or +0.28% at 25.07

Downside volume:

  • Friday: 3 out of the 12-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 2 out of the 15-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 5 out of the 22-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 0 out of the 12-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 3 out of the 16-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

October, the first month <October> of Q4 …

Friday closed positive with 20 advancers, 12 decliners and 3 flats

Thursday closed positive with 17 advancers, 15 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 11 advancers, 22 decliners and 2 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 20 advancers, 12 decliners and 3 flats 

Monday (10/12) closed neutral with 16 advancers, 16 decliners and 3 flats 

Friday closed positive with 21 advancers, 9 decliners and 5 flats 

Thursday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 26 advancers, 9 decliners and 2 flats 

Tuesday closed negative with 11 advancers, 23 decliners and 1 flat 

Monday (10/5) closed positive with 33 advancers, 1 declined and 1 flat 

Friday closed negative with 8 advancers, 26 decliners and 1 flat 

Thursday (10/1) closed negative with 21 advancers, 12 decliners and 2 flats

 

The Bottom Line: I haven’t been wrong as volatility sets the pace of share pricing.

I still believe a storm is coming to this market … as I reiterate, the coronavirus pandemic has left its imprint on just about everything and vulnerable to bad news as Covid-19 cases continue spike in some areas.

While hopes for near-term stimulus have faded as Democrats and Republicans remain at odds.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.