October 20, 2020 5:23pm

As share pricing feels the effect of visibility

Pre-open indication results: 6 HITs and 0 MISS

An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector.  I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't.

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The Dow closed UP +113.37 points (+0.40%), the S&P closed UP +16.20 points (+0.47 %) while the Nasdaq closed UP +37.51 points (+0.33%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose on Tuesday after House Speaker Pelosi signaled Democrats and the White House were making progress in negotiations for a new fiscal stimulus deal.

  • Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is in the middle east?
  • Now, the timing is end of the week …
  • House speaker Pelosi has to walk back the 48-hour deadline …
  • With the government operating on a stopgap funding bill through Dec. 11, a lame duck session of Congress after the election could approve a deal on at least some stimulus elements.
  • Do observers really believe Republicans will give Democratic speaker Pelosi a win pre-election?
  • Optimism has a term “fuse” …

 

This morning, I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: volatility is a double edge knife. Which political party is going to blink - a stimulus deal failure would miss a chance to make the U.S. economic recovery “evener” unfortunately creating a huge government debt which will linger over a greater period of years?” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11596

 

Pre-open indications: 6 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.14); Athersys (ATHX (-$0.16), Pluristem (PSTI -$0.43), BUY: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.11), bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.45) SELL into Strength: Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.670> and 0 MISS

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Tuesday opened negative at 11/22 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 12/21 and 2 flats, closing negative at 14/19 and 2 flats;
  • Monday opened positive at 20/13 and 3 flats, strayed negative at the mid-day at 12/22 and 1 flat, closing negative at 8/25 and 2 flats;
  • Friday opened negative at 15/17 and 3 flats, strayed positive at the mid-day at 23/8 and 4 flats, closing positive at 20/12 and 3 flats;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was the usual LOW with 4 of the 14-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 4 of 19-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 14-upside were +0.42% (IONS) to +5.51% (MESO) while the xx-downside of -0.04% (VYGR) to -17.95% (BCLI);

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI), ReNeuron (RENE.L), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Ultragenyx (RARE) to name 5 of the 19 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • uniQure NV (QURE), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), bluebird bio (BLUE), Mesoblast (MESO) to name 5 of the 14 inclining of the 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.65% and XBI closed down -1.35%
  • Monday, the IBB closed down -1.63% and XBI closed down -1.93%
  • Friday, the IBB closed up +0.36% and XBI closed up +0.37%

 

Tuesday’s (10 of 14) incliners:

  • uniQure NV (QURE +$1.53 after Monday’s +$1.78);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.51);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.81 after Monday’s -$4.76);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.67 after Monday’s -$1.12);
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.62 after Monday’s +$0.35);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.57);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.45 after Monday’s -$1.55);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.35 after Monday’s +$0.63);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.19);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.11);

Tuesday’s (10 of 19) decliner:

  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$2.55 after Monday’s -$1.71);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$2.22 after Monday’s -$1.49, post earnings release and new $45 M ATM <debt package>);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$1.50 after Monday’s +$1.50);
  • Intellia therapeutics (NTLA -$1.42);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.15 after Monday’s -$0.82);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.02 after Monday’s -$2.11);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.48 after Monday’s -$1.12);
  • Pluristem (PSTI -$0.43 after Monday’s +$0.46);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.41);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.40);

Closing flat –2 –Precigen (PGEN) and Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 14-upside were +0.42% (IONS) to +5.51% (MESO) while the xx-downside of -0.04% (VYGR) to -17.95% (BCLI);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 8-upside were +0.15% (IONS) to +4.98% (QURE) while the 25-downside of -0.52% (AXGN) to -10.75% (BCLI);
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 20-upside were +0.24% (VYGR) to +9.95% (CRSP) while the 12-downside ranges from -0.18% (SGMO) to -9.35% (BCLI);

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

Sentiment is still wrapped-around negotiations that hang over the market for months after the main provisions House Democrats have passed two additional relief bills that found no traction in the Republican-controlled Senate, which is moving to vote on a $500 billion targeted relief package later this week. The most recent bill from House Democrats was $2.2 trillion, while the counteroffers from the White House have crept up to about $1.9 trillion in recent weeks. The CARES Act expired at the end of July.

Infection cases <Million>:

  • Tuesday’s 8.2 M cases
  • Monday 8.15 M cases
  • Friday 8 M cases

Tuesday’s death rate totaled 220,338 after Monday’s 219,680, Friday’s 218,097, Thursday’s 216,904, Wednesday’s 215,971 and last Tuesday’s 215,101 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

Upside volume: 

  • Tuesday: 4 out of the 14-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 8-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday: 7 out of the 20-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +0.15 points or +0.45% at 29.31
  • Monday was up +1.77 points or +6.46% at 29.18
  • Friday was up +0.44 points or +1.63% at 27.41

Downside volume:

  • Tuesday: 4 out of the 19-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 6 out of the 25-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday: 3 out of the 12-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

October, the first month <October> of Q4 …

Tuesday closed negative with 14 advancers, 19 decliners and 2 flats

Monday (10/19) closed negative with 8 advancers, 25 decliners and 2 flats 

Friday closed positive with 20 advancers, 12 decliners and 3 flats

Thursday closed positive with 17 advancers, 15 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 11 advancers, 22 decliners and 2 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 20 advancers, 12 decliners and 3 flats 

Monday (10/12) closed neutral with 16 advancers, 16 decliners and 3 flats 

Friday closed positive with 21 advancers, 9 decliners and 5 flats 

Thursday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 26 advancers, 9 decliners and 2 flats 

Tuesday closed negative with 11 advancers, 23 decliners and 1 flat 

Monday (10/5) closed positive with 33 advancers, 1 declined and 1 flat 

Friday closed negative with 8 advancers, 26 decliners and 1 flat 

Thursday (10/1) closed negative with 21 advancers, 12 decliners and 2 flats

 

The Bottom Line: As I stated this a.m. – I am STILL of the opinion that dark clouds are forming over the market!

Theme for today’s (like yesterday) session and maybe the week: which way it can or will go, I’m out of words.

I also continue to say: maintain a presence in the sector, SELL the highs and be prepared for a tough Q3 reporting season re LPS (loss-per-share).

Hope and optimism are NOT in my vocabulary this day … and again I’m RIGHT.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.