October 21, 2020 5:31pm

Pre-open indication results: 4 HITs and 2 MISS

An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector.  I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't.

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The Dow closed DOWN -97.97 points (-0.35%), the S&P closed DOWN -7.56 points (-0.22%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -31.80 points (-0.28%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes fell on Wednesday as stimulus negotiations continue;

  • I still wonder if the differences between the democrats and republicans can be overcome ... it’s all about power and NOT giving the other party the edge!
  • Which exhibits justification for short-term market uneasiness and declines

 

This morning, I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: the market needs a finger in the dike and the sector supporting news to stem declines … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11598    

 

Pre-open indications: 2 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.00); Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.01), SELL into Strength: Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$3.73)> and 3 MISS < CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$14.48), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.04), bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.66) >

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Wednesday opened negative at 9/24 and 2 flats, strayed negative at the mid-day at 3/27 and 5 flats, closing negative at 5/27 and 3 flats;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 11/22 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 12/21 and 2 flats, closing negative at 14/19 and 2 flats;
  • Monday opened positive at 20/13 and 3 flats, strayed negative at the mid-day at 12/22 and 1 flat, closing negative at 8/25 and 2 flats;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was the usual LOW with 2 of the 5-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 10 of 27-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 5-upside were +0.09% (ADVM) to +1.10% (QURE) while the 27-downside ranges from -0.85% (SLDB) to -13.57% (CRSP);

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) to name 5 of the 27 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • uniQure NV (QURE), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC), Regenxbio (RGNX), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) to name 5 of the 5 inclining of the 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -1.71% and XBI closed down -2.36%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.65% and XBI closed down -1.35%
  • Monday, the IBB closed down -1.63% and XBI closed down -1.93%

 

Wednesday’s (5 of 5) incliners:

  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.43 after Tuesday’s +$1.53 after Monday’s +$1.78);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.07 after Tuesday’s -$0.41);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.06 after Tuesday’s -$0.40);
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.05);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.01);

Wednesday’s (10 of 27) decliner:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$14.48 after Tuesday’s -$1.02 and Monday’s -$2.11);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.97 after Tuesday’s +$0.81 and Monday’s -$4.76);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$3.73 after Tuesday’s +$0.67 and Monday’s -$1.12);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$3.03 after Tuesday’s -$2.55 and Monday’s -$1.71);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$2.91);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$2.82 after Tuesday’s +$0.35 after Monday’s +$0.63);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.12 after Tuesday’s +$0.19);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$1.08 after Tuesday’s +$0.57);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.05 after Tuesday’s +$1.51);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.04);

Closing flat - 3 – ReNeuron (RENE.L), Biostage (BSTG) and Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 5-upside were +0.09% (ADVM) to +1.10% (QURE) while the 27-downside ranges from -0.85% (SLDB) to -13.57% (CRSP);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 14-upside were +0.42% (IONS) to +5.51% (MESO) while the 19-downside of -0.04% (VYGR) to -17.95% (BCLI);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 8-upside were +0.15% (IONS) to +4.98% (QURE) while the 25-downside of -0.52% (AXGN) to -10.75% (BCLI);

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

Same as yesterday, sentiment is all wrapped-up on stimulus negotiations that hang over the market for months; the CARES Act expired at the end of July.

Infection cases <Million>:

  • Wednesday 8.27 M cases
  • Tuesday’s 8.2 M cases
  • Monday 8.15 M cases

Wednesday’s death rate totaled 221,122 after Tuesday’s 220,338, Monday’s 219,680, Friday’s 218,097, Thursday’s 216,904 and last Wednesday’s 215,971 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

Upside volume: 

  • Wednesday: 2 out of the 5-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 4 out of the 14-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 8-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -0.70 points or -2.39% at 28.65
  • Tuesday was up +0.15 points or +0.45% at 29.31
  • Monday was up +1.77 points or +6.46% at 29.18

Downside volume:

  • Wednesday: 10 out of the 27-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 4 out of the 19-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 6 out of the 25-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

October, the first month <October> of Q4 …

Wednesday closed negative with 5 advancers, 27 decliners and 3 flats 

Tuesday closed negative with 14 advancers, 19 decliners and 2 flats

Monday (10/19) closed negative with 8 advancers, 25 decliners and 2 flats 

Friday closed positive with 20 advancers, 12 decliners and 3 flats

Thursday closed positive with 17 advancers, 15 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 11 advancers, 22 decliners and 2 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 20 advancers, 12 decliners and 3 flats 

Monday (10/12) closed neutral with 16 advancers, 16 decliners and 3 flats 

Friday closed positive with 21 advancers, 9 decliners and 5 flats 

Thursday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 26 advancers, 9 decliners and 2 flats  

Tuesday closed negative with 11 advancers, 23 decliners and 1 flat 

Monday (10/5) closed positive with 33 advancers, 1 declined and 1 flat 

Friday closed negative with 8 advancers, 26 decliners and 1 flat 

Thursday (10/1) closed negative with 21 advancers, 12 decliners and 2 flats

 

The Bottom Line: The prospect of another stimulus package before Election Day is uncertain, even as the White House and Democratic leaders kept talking Wednesday.

As I stated this a.m. – I am STILL of the opinion that dark clouds are forming over the market!

I also continue to say: maintain a presence in the sector, SELL the highs and be prepared for a tough Q3 reporting season re LPS (loss-per-share).

Hope and optimism are NOT in my vocabulary this day … and again I’m RIGHT.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.