October 23, 2020 5:24pm

About whom and what defines “tail-risk” going forward

Pre-open indication results: 6 HITs and 1 MISS

The week in review … the numbers speak!

An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector.  I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't.

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The Dow closed DOWN -28.09 points (-0.10%), the S&P closed UP +11.90 points (+0.34%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +42.28 points (+0.37%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes were mixed as the Dow fell, the S&P flipped and the Nasdaq flicked while investors watched another miss of additional fiscal stimulus … 

Friday’s decline put the Dow and S&P 500 on track to snap a three-week winning streak and the Nasdaq was headed for its first weekly loss in five weeks.

  • The S&P 500 lost -0.5%, the Dow 0.95% and the Nasdaq lost -1.1%.

 

This morning, I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: who won the war-of-words debate – markets, stimulus or potential evidence of the V.P.’s son’s business dealings … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11602

 

Pre-open indications: 6 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.07), AxoGen (AXGN +$0.19), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.49); SELL into Strength: Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.65), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.56), uniQure NV (QURE +$1.37)>; and 1 MISS < Mesoblast (MESO -$0.04)>  

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Friday opened positive at 20/14 and 1 flat, slipped negative at the mid-day at 15/18 and 2 flats, closing positive at 24/10 and 1 flat;
  • Thursday opened positive at 31/3 and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day at 22/10 and 3 flats, closing positive at 26/7 and 2 flats;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 9/24 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 3/27 and 5 flats, closing negative at 5/27 and 3 flats;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 11/22 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 12/21 and 2 flats, closing negative at 14/19 and 2 flats;
  • Monday opened positive at 20/13 and 3 flats, strayed negative at the mid-day at 12/22 and 1 flat, closing negative at 8/25 and 2 flats;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was the usual LOW with 7 of the 24-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 2 of 10-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 24-upside were +0.04% (BLUE) to +10.64% (SLDB) while the 10-downside ranges from -0.18% (FIXX) to -8.15% (MDXG);

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), ReNeuron (RENE.L), MiMedx (OTC Pink sheets: MDXG), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Biostage (BSTG), Mesoblast (MESO), Verastem (VSTM), Chinook Therapeutics KDNY), Homology Medicine (FIXX), Athersys (ATHX) to name 10 of the 10 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ultragenyx (RARE), Cellectis SA (CLLS), uniQure NV (QURE), Fate Therapeutics (FATE) to name 5 of the 24 inclining of the 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed up +0.25% and XBI closed up +0.50%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +1.46% and XBI closed up +2.71%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -1.71% and XBI closed down -2.36%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.65% and XBI closed down -1.35%
  • Monday, the IBB closed down -1.63% and XBI closed down -1.93%

 

Friday’s (10 of 24) incliners:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.49 after Thursday’s -$2.06, Wednesday’s -$14.48, Tuesday’s -$1.02 and Monday’s -$2.11);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$1.56 after Thursday’s +$0.90);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$1.37 after Thursday’s +$1.76, Wednesday’s +$0.43, Tuesday’s +$1.53 and Monday’s +$1.78);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.16 after Thursday’s +$2.77);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.69 after Thursday’s +$3.57, Wednesday’s -$2.82, Tuesday’s +$0.35 after Monday’s +$0.63);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.65 after Thursday’s +$3.25, Wednesday’s -$3.73, Tuesday’s +$0.67 and Monday’s -$1.12);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.56);
  • Vericel VCEL +$0.55);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.50 after Thursday’s +$1.99 and Wednesday’s -$2.91);

Friday’s (10 of 10) decliner:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.46 after Thursday’s -$2.18, Wednesday’s -$4.97, Tuesday’s +$0.81 and Monday’s -$4.76);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$1.00);
  • MiMedx (OTC Pink sheets: MDXG -$0.52 after Thursday’s -$0.03);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.14 after Thursday’s +$0.89, Wednesday’s -$3.03, Tuesday’s -$2.55 and Monday’s -$1.71);
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.07);
  • Athersys (ATHX -$0.05);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.04 after Thursday’s -$0.21, Wednesday’s -$1.08 and Tuesday’s +$0.57);
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.04);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.02);
  • Verastem (VSTM -$0,01);

Closing flat - 1 – Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 24-upside were +0.04% (BLUE) to +10.64% (SLDB) while the 10-downside ranges from -0.18% (FIXX) to -8.15% (MDXG);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 26-upside were +0.09% (MESO) to +7.31% (FATE) while the 7-downside ranges from -0.47% (MDXG) to -2.56% (CRSP);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 5-upside were +0.09% (ADVM) to +1.10% (QURE) while the 27-downside ranges from -0.85% (SLDB) to -13.57% (CRSP);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 14-upside were +0.42% (IONS) to +5.51% (MESO) while the 19-downside of -0.04% (VYGR) to -17.95% (BCLI);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 8-upside were +0.15% (IONS) to +4.98% (QURE) while the 25-downside of -0.52% (AXGN) to -10.75% (BCLI);

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

The lack of a stimulus package is telling to the issues of the market, economy and business recovery. A positive is an FDA approval for one treatment from Gilead Sciences (GILD).

Infection cases <Million>:

  • Friday 8.41 M cases
  • Thursday 8.35 M cases
  • Wednesday 8.27 M cases
  • Tuesday’s 8.2 M cases
  • Monday 8.15 M cases

Friday’s death rate totaled 223,059 after Thursday’s 222,416, Wednesday’s 221,122, Tuesday’s 220,338, Monday’s 219,680 and last Friday’s 218,097 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

Upside volume: 

  • Friday: 7 out of the 24-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 5 out of the 26-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 2 out of the 5-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 4 out of the 14-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 8-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.56points or -`1.99% at 27.55
  • Thursday was down -0.57 points or -1.99% at 28.08
  • Wednesday was down -0.70 points or -2.39% at 28.65
  • Tuesday was up +0.15 points or +0.45% at 29.31
  • Monday was up +1.77 points or +6.46% at 29.18

Downside volume:

  • Friday: 2 out of the 10-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 3 out of the 7-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 10 out of the 27-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 4 out of the 19-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 6 out of the 25-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

October, the first month <October> of Q4 …

Friday closed positive with 24 advancers, 10 decliners and 1 flat

Thursday closed positive with 26 advancers, 7 decliners and 2 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 5 advancers, 27 decliners and 3 flats 

Tuesday closed negative with 14 advancers, 19 decliners and 2 flats

Monday (10/19) closed negative with 8 advancers, 25 decliners and 2 flats 

Friday closed positive with 20 advancers, 12 decliners and 3 flats

Thursday closed positive with 17 advancers, 15 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 11 advancers, 22 decliners and 2 flats  

Tuesday closed positive with 20 advancers, 12 decliners and 3 flats 

Monday (10/12) closed neutral with 16 advancers, 16 decliners and 3 flats 

Friday closed positive with 21 advancers, 9 decliners and 5 flats 

Thursday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 26 advancers, 9 decliners and 2 flats 

Tuesday closed negative with 11 advancers, 23 decliners and 1 flat 

Monday (10/5) closed positive with 33 advancers, 1 declined and 1 flat 

Friday closed negative with 8 advancers, 26 decliners and 1 flat 

Thursday (10/1) closed negative with 21 advancers, 12 decliners and 2 flats

 

The Bottom Line: Glad, the sector ended on an up note while the week (Dow, S&P and Nasdaq) soured.

Reiterating, I also continue to say: maintain a presence in the sector, SELL the highs and be prepared for a tough Q3 reporting season re LPS (loss-per-share).

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.