October 26, 2020 5:36pm

With still no stimulus to support markets

An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector.  I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't.

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The Dow closed DOWN -650.19 points (-2.29%), the S&P closed DOWN -64.42 points (-1.86%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -189.35 points (-1.64%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes fell sharply on Monday as coronavirus infections jumped and negotiations for a fiscal stimulus package seem stumped.

  • The decline came amid a record surge in new coronavirus cases in the U.S. The country saw more than 83,000 new infections on both Friday and Saturday after outbreaks in Sun Belt states, surpassing a previous record of roughly 77,300 cases set in July, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The data also showed the country has reported an average of 68,767 cases per day over the past seven days, a record. <CNBC>

 

This morning, I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: action to the downside. Today begins the last week of October, the final trading period before Nov. 3 and the sector’s earnings’ release ramp-up … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11604

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Monday opened negative at 13/19 and 3 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 5/28 and 2 flats, closing negative at 9/24 and 2 flats;
  • Friday opened positive at 20/14 and 1 flat, slipped negative at the mid-day at 15/18 and 2 flats, closing positive at 24/10 and 1 flat;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was the usual LOW with 2 of the 9-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 3 of 24-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.28% (GBT) to +4.97% (ATHX) while the 24-downside of -0.14% (VYGR) to -9.62% (SLDB);

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), bluebird bio (BLUE), Ultragenyx (RARE), Fate Therapeutics (FATE) to name 5 of the 24 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), uniQure NV (QURE), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM), MiMedx (OTC Pink sheets: MDXG), Athersys (ATHX), Regenxbio (RGNX), Biostage (BSTG) to name 9 of the 9 inclining of the 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB closed down -1.01% and XBI closed down -1.34%
  • Friday, the IBB closed up +0.25% and XBI closed up +0.50%

 

Monday’s (9 of 9) incliners:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.40 after Friday’s +$2.49);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.61 after Friday’s +$1.37);
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.34);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.15 after Friday’s -$0.14);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.15);
  • Athersys (ATHX +$0.08 after Friday’s -$0.05);
  • MiMedx (OTC Pink sheets: MDXG +$0.07 atter Friday’s -$0.52);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.05);
  • Biostage (BSTG +$0.02 after Friday’s -$0.07);

Monday’s (10 of 24) decliner:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$3.12 after Friday’s -$2.46);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$3.00 after Friday’s +$0.69);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$2.11);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.98 after Friday’s +$1.16);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$1.72 after Friday’s +$1.56);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.58 after Friday’s +$0.65);
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.77);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.66 after Friday’s +$0.50);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.54 after Friday’s +$0.56);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.49);

Closing flat - 2 – ReNeuron (RENE.L) Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.28% (GBT) to +4.97% (ATHX) while the 24-downside of -0.14% (VYGR) to -9.62% (SLDB);
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 24-upside were +0.04% (BLUE) to +10.64% (SLDB) while the 10-downside ranges from -0.18% (FIXX) to -8.15% (MDXG);

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

NO meaningful progress in stimulus as infections increase

Infection cases <Million>:

  • Monday 8.66 M cases
  • Friday 8.41 M cases

Monday’s death rate totaled 225,434 after Friday’s 223,059, Thursday’s 222,416, Wednesday’s 221,122, Tuesday’s 220,338 and last Monday’s 219,680 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

Upside volume: 

  • Monday: 2 out of the 9-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday: 7 out of the 24-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was up +4.91 points or +17.82% at 32.46
  • Friday was down -0.56 points or -`1.99% at 27.55

Downside volume:

  • Monday: 3 out of the 24-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday: 2 out of the 10-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

October, the first month <October> of Q4 … erratic pattern

Monday (10/26) closed negative with 9 advancers, 24 decliners and 2 flats 

Friday closed positive with 24 advancers, 10 decliners and 1 flat

Thursday closed positive with 26 advancers, 7 decliners and 2 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 5 advancers, 27 decliners and 3 flats 

Tuesday closed negative with 14 advancers, 19 decliners and 2 flats

Monday (10/19) closed negative with 8 advancers, 25 decliners and 2 flats 

Friday closed positive with 20 advancers, 12 decliners and 3 flats

Thursday closed positive with 17 advancers, 15 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 11 advancers, 22 decliners and 2 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 20 advancers, 12 decliners and 3 flats 

Monday (10/12) closed neutral with 16 advancers, 16 decliners and 3 flats 

Friday closed positive with 21 advancers, 9 decliners and 5 flats  

Thursday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 26 advancers, 9 decliners and 2 flats 

Tuesday closed negative with 11 advancers, 23 decliners and 1 flat 

Monday (10/5) closed positive with 33 advancers, 1 declined and 1 flat 

Friday closed negative with 8 advancers, 26 decliners and 1 flat  

Thursday (10/1) closed negative with 21 advancers, 12 decliners and 2 flats

 

The Bottom Line: Today’s weakness was blamed largely on rising COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and Europe, along with a lack of progress toward another round of coronavirus aid in Washington.

The sector is also dependent on an inclining market underscoring the fragility of new highs and an economic recovery; especially before the on slot of earnings’ LPS (loss-per-share) seasons ramp-up.

The home stretch of the U.S. presidential race is usually a positive one for U.S. stocks, but bulls might have to do some heavy-duty campaigning to dig out a win in the eight-day runup to Election Day. <MarketWatch>

I believe that investors are afraid of an election stock market crash depending on the party elected.

External influences decline markets, be prepared for a tough Q3 reporting season re LPS (loss-per-share).

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.