November 4, 2020 5:29pm

Election outlook, still on hold; expectation could have major consequences for markets

Pre-open indication results: 5 HITs and 1 Miss

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The Dow closed UP +367.63 points (+1.34%), the S&P closed UP +74.28 points (+2.20%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +430.21 points (+3.85%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes climbed on Wednesday, even as the results of the presidential contest so far failed to yield a clear winner.

A good review from others, “I think the big news for the markets right now at least as it looks preliminary is that there’s not going to be a blue wave, which is generally supportive for markets,” said Mike Lewis, managing director of U.S. equity cash trading at Barclays, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “I think that the outlook going forward for markets is this is going to be more about policy and the Fed than it’s going to be about politics, which is a good thing for markets.” <CNBC>

Markets are coming off a strong two-day rally. With Wednesday’s advance, the S&P 500 and the Dow has both gained more than 5% this week, while the Nasdaq has rallied 6.2%.

 

Pre-open indication: 5 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.00), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$2.14); Sell into Strength: BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.08), Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.07), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$8.69)> 1 MISS <Vericel (VCEL +$0.28)>

 

This morning, I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open:futures are flying … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11619

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Wednesday opened positive at 30/3 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 26/4 and 5 flats, closing positive at 28/4 and 3 flats;
  • Tuesday opened positive at 27/5 and 3 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 24/10 and 1 flat, closing positive at 30/4 and 1 flat;
  • Monday opened positive at 23/8 and 4 flats, strayed negative at the mid-day at 9/23 and 3 flats, closing positive at 17/15 and 3 flats;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was the usual LOW with 15 of the 28-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 2 of 4-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 28-upside were +0.63% (CLBS) to +14.61% (GBT) while the 4-downside ranges from -1.86% (BCLI) to -6.67% (BLCM);

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI), Athersys (ATHX), Solid Biosciences (SLDB) to name 2 of the 4 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) to name 5 of the 28 inclining of the 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +6.04% and XBI closed up +6.16%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +1.77% and XBI closed UP +2.71%
  • Monday, the IBB closed down -0.18% and XBI closed down -0.01%

 

Wednesday’s (10 of 28) incliners:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$11.53 after Tuesday’s +$6.47 and Monday’s -$4.97);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$10.44 after Tuesday’s +$4.14 and Monday’s +$1.94);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$8.69);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$7.89 after Tuesday’s +$1.52 and Monday’s -$0.41);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$4.32 after Tuesday’s +$2.55 and Monday’s -$1.70);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$4.25 after Tuesday’s +$1.63 and Monday’s -$0.46);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$4.00 after Tuesday’s +$1,46 and Monday’s +$1.38);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$2.60 after Tuesday’s -$1.58 and Monday’s +$0.44);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$2.37);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$2.14 after Tuesday’s -$2.99);

Wednesday’s (4 of 4) decliner:

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.21 after Tuesday’s -$0.13 and Monday’s -$0.43);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.20);
  • Athersys (ATHX -$0.08);
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.07);

Closing flat – 2 – Biostage (BSTG), ReNeuron (RENE.L) and 1 –Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 28-upside were +0.63% (CLBS) to +14.61% (GBT) while the 4-downside ranges from -1.86% (BCLI) to -6.67% (BLCM);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 30-upside were +0.13% (CLLS) to +12.23% (PGEN) while the 4-downside of -1.10% (RENE.L) to -9.55% (EDIT);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 17-upside were +0.19% (VYGR) to +14.66% (MDXG) while the 15-downside of -0.11% (PSTI) to -11.59% (BLCM);

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

Investors crowded back into the trade that’s been working for most of this tumultuous year.

Infection cases <Million>:

  • Wednesday 9.39 M cases
  • Tuesday 9.29 M cases
  • Monday 9.2 M cases

Wednesday’s death rate totaled 232,693 after Tuesday’s 231,566, Monday’s 231,011, Friday’s 229,141, Thursday’s 227,706 and last Wednesday’s 226,777 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

Upside volume: 

  • Wednesday: 15 out of the 28-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 4 out of the 30-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 7 out of the 17-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -5.98 points or -16.82% at 29.57
  • Tuesday was down -1.58 points or -4.26% at 35.55
  • Monday was down -0.89 points or -2.34% at 37.13

Downside volume:

  • Wednesday: 2 out of the 4-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 2 out of the 4-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 5 out of the 15-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

November, the 2nd month of Q4 …

Wednesday closed positive with 28 advancers, 4 decliners and 3 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 30 advancers, 4 decliners and 1 flat 

Monday (11/2) closed positive with 17 advancers, 15 decliners and 3 flats 

 

The Bottom Line: From this morning’s post, “Today is a wait and see opportunity however, the Nasdaq is booming.”

Now we enter the big upswing in sector earnings’ LPS (loss-per-share) releases with the next month likely to remain volatile and uncertain.

Reiterating,” short-term risk and sentiment continue to weigh on investors, there are certainly fleeting patterns.’

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.