November 24, 2020 5:43pm

Never trust new or all-time highs

Pre-open indication results: 6 HITs and 2 MISS

An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector.  I track the numbers, so there’s no question re my opinion; so, you can do what others can't.

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The Dow closed UP +454.97 points (+1.54%); the S&P closed UP +57.82 points (+1.62%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +156.15 points (+1.31%)

 

Henry’omics:

The Dow hit 30 K, another reminder of how far stocks and the economy have come since the depths of March

Tuesday’s gains put the Dow up more than 13% for November (biggest monthly gain since 1987), the S&P 500 is up +11.2%, the Nasdaq has risen 10.3% - both had the best monthly performances since April.

 

Pre-open indication: 6 HITs <Biostage (BSTG +$0.00 with 854 shares traded); SELL into Strength: BrainStorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.37), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.01), Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.98), Mesoblast (MESO +$0.93); BUY: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.64), and 2 MISS < bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.09) Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.23),>

 

This morning, I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: one set of uncertainties decline as transition begins … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11648

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Tuesday opened neutral at 16/16 and 3 flats, strayed negative at the mid-day at 14/18 and 3 flats, closing barely positive at 17/16 and 2 flats;
  • Monday opened positive at 17/16 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 22/10 and 3 flats, closing positive at 17/16 and 2 flats;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was the usual LOW with 6 of the 17-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 5 of 16-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 17-upside were +0.35% (AXGN) to +7.69% (BCLI) while the 16-downside ranges from -0.01% (CRSP) to -18.42% (RENE.L);

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Pluristem (PSTI), Vericel (VCEL) to name 5 of the 16 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:  

  • Ultragenyx (RARE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Regenxbio (RGNX), Fate Therapeutics (FATE) to name 5 of the 17 inclining of the 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.60% and XBI closed down -0.34%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +0.21% and XBI closed up +0.36%

 

Data Docket: The cost of buying a house rose sharply again in September and by one measure hit a six-year high, a Case-Shiller index showed, signaling that prospective buyers are unlikely to find better deals any time soon. A measure of home prices in 20 large cities rose at a 6.6% yearly pace in October, according to the S&P CoreLogic C

 

Tuesday’s (10 of 17) incliners:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$4.19);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.64 after Monday’s -$1.68);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.91 after Monday’s +$1.79);
  • Regenxbio (+$1.43 after Monday’s -$1.96);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.98 after Monday’s +$1.64);
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.93 after Monday’s +$2.03);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.53 after Monday’s +$1.94);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.45 after Monday’s +$0.96);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.37 after Monday’s +$0.47);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.33 after Monday’s -$0.26);

Tuesday’s (10 of 16) decliner:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$17.50 after Monday’s -$2.00);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.88 after Monday’s +$0.78);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.31 after Monday’s +$0.91);
  • Pluristem (PSTI -$0.31);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.28 after Monday’s -$0.23);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.23 after Monday’s +$1.13);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.15 after Monday’s -$0.35);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.10);
  • bluebird bio (-$0.09 after Monday’s -$0.34);
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.07);

Closing Flat -1 Biostage (BSTG) and 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 17-upside were +0.35% (AXGN) to +7.69% (BCLI) while the 16-downside ranges from -0.01% (CRSP) to -18.42% (RENE.L);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the xx-upside were +0.12% (VYGR) to +14.73% (MESO) while the xx- downside of -0.33% (BLCM) to -5.86% (PGEN);

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

Remember, sentiment is a view of or attitude toward a situation or event and ... an opinion.

 

A sentiment indicator refers to a graphical or numerical indicator designed to show how a group feels about the market or economy. A sentiment indicator seeks to quantify how current beliefs and positions affect future behavior.

Infection cases <Million>:

  • Tuesday 12.43 M cases
  • Monday 12.25 M cases

Tuesday’s death rate totaled 257,991 after Monday’s 256,803, Friday’s 252.564, Thursday’s 250,548 after Wednesday’s 284.824 and last Tuesday’s 247,437 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

Upside volume: 

  • Tuesday: 6 out of the 17-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 9 out of the 17-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was down -1.02 points or -4.50% at 21.64
  • Monday was down -1.04 points or -4.39% at 22.66

Downside volume:

  • Tuesday: 5 out of the 16-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 5 out of the 16-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

November, the 2nd month of Q4 …

Tuesday closed positive with 17 advancers, 16 decliners and 2 flats 

Monday (11/23) closed positive with 17 advancers, 16 decliners and 2 flats 

Friday closed positive with 20 advancers, 13 decliners and 2 flats 

Thursday closed positive with 19 advancers, 13 decliners and 3 flats 

Wednesday closed negative with 7 advancers, 25 decliners and 3 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 18 advancers, 15 decliners and 2 flats 

Monday (11/16) closed positive with 19 advancers, 15 decliners and 1 flat   

Friday closed positive with 22 advancers, 11 decliners and 1 flat 

Thursday closed negative with 15 advancers, 19 decliners and 1 flat 

Wednesday closed positive with 17 advancers, 15 decliners and 3 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 22 advancers, 11 decliners and 2 flats 

Monday (11/9) closed positive with 21 advancers, 12 decliners and 2 flats 

Friday closed negative with 6 advancers, 28 decliners and 1 flat 

Thursday closed positive with 20 advancers, 11 decliners and 4 flats 

Wednesday closed positive with 28 advancers, 4 decliners and 3 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 30 advancers, 4 decliners and 1 flat 

Monday (11/2) closed positive with 17 advancers, 15 decliners and 3 flats 

 

The Bottom Line: The sector is what it is … until it isn’t!

You never get it by a bus that you saw ... watch your “six”, I’d be covering my portfolio for risk of inflated pricing.

Algorithms are circling …

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.