November 25, 2020 5:05pm

Trim portfolio positions before they come back to earth

Pre-open indication results: 4 HITs and 1 MISS

An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector.  I track the numbers, so there’s no question re my opinion; so, you can do what others can't.

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The Dow closed DOWN -173.77 points (-0.58%); the S&P closed DOWN -5.76 points (-0.16%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +57.08 points (+0.47%)

 

Henry’omics:

Trading volumes were lighter than usual ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.

The Dow and S&P fell on Wednesday, as the Nasdaq gained after disappointing unemployment data.

Small caps were also coming off a record high, with the Russell 2000 surging nearly 2% on Tuesday. For the month, the Russell is up around 20%, which would be its best-ever monthly performance. On Wednesday, however, the small-cap benchmark dipped 0.5%. <CNBC>

 

Data Docket: The Labor Department said that 778,000 people filed for unemployment benefits for the first-time last week versus the expectation of 733,000.

 

Pre-open indication: 4 HITs <Biostage (BSTG +$0.00 with 685 shares traded); SELL into Strength: Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.86), Mesoblast (MESO -$1.46); BUY: bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.59) and 1 MISS < Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.03)>

 

This morning, I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: slipping on slippers, won’t go far. My turkey, gravy, stuffing and pie bags were picked-up and I’m headed down steep steps to the den, holiday away! … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11650

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Wednesday opened positive at 18/15 and 2 flats, strayed positive at the mid-day at 21/12 and 2 flats, closing barely positive at 21/10 and 4 flats;
  • Tuesday opened neutral at 16/16 and 3 flats, strayed negative at the mid-day at 14/18 and 3 flats, closing barely positive at 17/16 and 2 flats;
  • Monday opened positive at 17/16 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 22/10 and 3 flats, closing positive at 17/16 and 2 flats;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was the usual LOW with 7 of the 21-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 1 of 10-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.01% (CRSP) to +23.03% (PGEN) while the 10-downside ranges from -0.17% (ALNY) to -8.72% (MESO);

 

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Mesoblast (MESO), Cellectis SA (CLLS), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) to name 5 of the 10 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:  

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Precigen (PGEN), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Vericel (VCEL) to name 5 of the 21 inclining of the 35 covered

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up 0.51% and XBI closed UP +0.60%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.60% and XBI closed down -0.34%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +0.21% and XBI closed up +0.36%

 

Wednesday’s (10 of 21) incliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$8.50 after Tuesday’s -$17.50 and Monday’s -$2.00);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.82 after Tuesday’s +$1.91 and Monday’s +$1.79);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.86 after Tuesday’s +$0.98 and Monday’s +$1.64);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.79 after Tuesday’s -$0.28 and Monday’s -$0.23);
  • Precigen (PGEN +$1.40);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.05 after Tuesday’s +$0.53 and Monday’s +$1.94);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.95 after Tuesday’s +$4.19);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.68 after Tuesday’s -$0.88 and Monday’s +$0.78);
  • bluebird bio (+$0.59 after Tuesday’s -$0.09 and Monday’s -$0.34);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.43 after Tuesday’s -$0.31 after Monday’s +$0.91);

Wednesday’s (10 of 10) decliner:

  • Mesoblast (MESO -$1.46 after Tuesday’s +$0.93 and Monday’s +$2.03);
  • Adverum biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.40);
  • Regenxbio (-$0.27 after Tuesday’s +$1.43 and Monday’s -$1.96);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.21 after Tuesday’s +$2.64 and Monday’s -$1.68);
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.20);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.19 after Tuesday’s +$0.37 and Monday’s +$0.47);
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.15);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.14 after Tuesday’s +$0.45 and Monday’s +$0.96);
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.03);

Closing Flat -3 - Biostage (BSTG), Homology Medicine FIXX), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS), and 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.01% (CRSP) to +23.03% (PGEN) while the 10-downside ranges from -0.17% (ALNY) to -8.72% (MESO);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 17-upside were +0.35% (AXGN) to +7.69% (BCLI) while the 16-downside ranges from -0.01% (CRSP) to -18.42% (RENE.L);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the xx-upside were +0.12% (VYGR) to +14.73% (MESO) while the xx- downside of -0.33% (BLCM) to -5.86% (PGEN);

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

Sentiment came off a record high amid positive vaccine news coupled with increasing political clarity.

Infection cases <Million>:

  • Wednesday 12.61 M cases
  • Tuesday 12.43 M cases
  • Monday 12.25 M cases

Wednesday’s death rate totaled 260,190 after Tuesday’s 257,991, Monday’s 256,803, Friday’s 252.564, Thursday’s 250,548 after last Wednesday’s 284.824 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

Upside volume: 

  • Wednesday: 7 out of the 21-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 6 out of the 17-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 9 out of the 17-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -0.39 points or -1.80% at 21.25
  • Tuesday was down -1.02 points or -4.50% at 21.64
  • Monday was down -1.04 points or -4.39% at 22.66

Downside volume:

  • Wednesday: 1 out of the 10-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 5 out of the 16-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 5 out of the 16-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

November, the 2nd month of Q4 …

Wednesday closed positive with 21 advancers, 10 decliners and 4 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 17 advancers, 16 decliners and 2 flats 

Monday (11/23) closed positive with 17 advancers, 16 decliners and 2 flats 

Friday closed positive with 20 advancers, 13 decliners and 2 flats 

Thursday closed positive with 19 advancers, 13 decliners and 3 flats 

Wednesday closed negative with 7 advancers, 25 decliners and 3 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 18 advancers, 15 decliners and 2 flats 

Monday (11/16) closed positive with 19 advancers, 15 decliners and 1 flat   

Friday closed positive with 22 advancers, 11 decliners and 1 flat 

Thursday closed negative with 15 advancers, 19 decliners and 1 flat 

Wednesday closed positive with 17 advancers, 15 decliners and 3 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 22 advancers, 11 decliners and 2 flats 

Monday (11/9) closed positive with 21 advancers, 12 decliners and 2 flats 

Friday closed negative with 6 advancers, 28 decliners and 1 flat 

Thursday closed positive with 20 advancers, 11 decliners and 4 flats 

Wednesday closed positive with 28 advancers, 4 decliners and 3 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 30 advancers, 4 decliners and 1 flat 

Monday (11/2) closed positive with 17 advancers, 15 decliners and 3 flats 

 

The Bottom Line: The sector is what it is … until it isn’t!

Reiterating, you never get hit by a bus that you saw ... I’d be covering my portfolio for risk of inflated pricing.

Are we under-estimating “the risks to the economic outlook as tilted to the downside, with the latest data suggesting an increased probability of a resurgence in the disease?” <extract from Federal Reserve minutes>

Algorithms are circling …

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.