RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: momentum is like fire; it needs to be fed

December 3, 2020 5:33pm

By BUYING, where is the gas or fuel and oxygen coming with some rumblings of stimulus progress while the vaccine front might be slowed by supply chain problems as the virus undermines the economy

Pre-open indication results: 7 HITs and 3 MISS

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The Dow closed up +85.73 points (+0.29%); the S&P closed DOWN -2.29 points (+0.06%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +27.82 points (+0.23%)

Henry’omics:

One index bites the downside (S&P) as the others (Dow and Nasdaq) cut gains in the final hour of trading after Pfizer (PFE) expects to ship  

… half of the doses … 20 million versus 40 million …

it had previously planned this year after finding raw materials in early production that didn’t meet its standard.

Pre-open indication: 7 HITs < Maintaining SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.00 with 2,418 shares traded), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.84), CRISP Therapeutics (CCSP) +$8.92), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.11), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS -$0.14); BUY: bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.79), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.67), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.29) and 3 MISS < Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.33), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.88), Mesoblast (MESO -$0.10) >

This morning, I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: awaiting news on stimulus negotiations and the vaccine approval process. Stimulus is a Game of Thrones – California versus Washington, DC, Senate versus House, Republicans versus Democrats and Pelosi versus Mnuchin, jobless benefits versus state and local relief” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11661

From this a.m.’s Data Docket: First-time claims for unemployment insurance totaled 712,000 last week, lower than an estimate of 780,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Jobless claims also reached a pandemic-era low as the labor market showed resilience even in the face of a worsening pandemic.

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

• Thursday opened positive at 23/10 and 2 flats, flipped negative at the mid-day at 14/17 and 4 flats, closing neutral at 16/16 and 3 flats;
• Wednesday opened negative at 10/23 and 2 flats, flipped positive at the mid-day at 20/14 and 1 flat, closing positive at 20/14 and 1 flat;
• Tuesday opened positive at 20/12 and 4 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 22/12 and 1 flats, closing positive at 20/15 and 1 flat;
• Monday opened negative at 13/20 and 2 flats, strayed neutral at the mid-day at 16/16 and 3 flats, closing positive at 21/13 and 1 flat;

Key metrics:

• Sector volume was EACH HALF with 8 of the 16-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 8 of 16-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

• Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 16-upside were +0.37% (BCLI) to +9.86% (CLLS) while the 16-downside ranges from -0.18% (FATE) to -8.09% (CLBS);

Hammered in today’s market:

• ReNeuron (RENE.L), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC), Vericel (VCEL) to name 5 of the 16 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:  

• CRSP Therapeutics (CRSP), Ultragenyx (RARE), Cellectis SA (CLLS), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) to name 5 of the 16 inclining of the 35 covered

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

• Thursday, the IBB closed up +1% and XBI closed up +0.68%
• Wednesday, the IBB closed down -0.23% and XBI closed down -0.09%
• Tuesday, the IBB closed up +0.23% and XBI closed down -0.20%
• Monday, the IBB closed up +0.35 % and XBI closed up +0.27%

Thursday’s (10 of 16) incliners:

• CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$8.92 after Wednesday’s +$1.96, Tuesday’s +$2.66 and Monday’s +$5.370;
• Ultragenyx (RARE +$6.16 after Wednesday’s +$0.60, Tuesday’s -$1.16 and Monday’s -$3.88);
• Cellectis SA (CLLS +$2.62 after Wednesday’s -$0.26, Tuesday’s +$1.47 and Monday’s +$1.16);
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.84 after Wednesday’s +$2.98 after Tuesday’s -$1.17 and Monday’s -$0.11);
• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.70 after Wednesday’s -$2.80 and Tuesday’s +$2.36);
• Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.67 after Wednesday’s -$0.34, Tuesday’s +$1.31 and Monday’s -$0.75);
• BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.44);
• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.29 after Wednesday’s +$4.07, Tuesday’s -$1.45 and Monday’s -$1.48);
• bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.79);
• AxoGen (AXGN +$0.57 after Wednesday’s +$0.57);

Thursday’s (10 of 16) decliner:

• ReNeuron (RENE.L -$4.20 after Wednesday’s +$4.20, Tuesday’s -$4.00 and Monday’s +$2.50);
• Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.88 after Wednesday’s -$3.40, Tuesday’s +$2.27 and Monday’s +$1.05);
• Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.34);
• Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.33);
• Vericel (VCEL -$0.31 after Wednesday’s -$0.94);
• Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.26);
• uniQure NV (QURE -$0.18 after Wednesday’s +$0.94 after Tuesday’s +$1.65 and Monday’s -$1.01);
• MiMedx (MDXG -$0.15);
• Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS -$0.14);
• Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.12 after Wednesday’s -$0.11);

Closing – 2 – Biostage (BSTG), Homology Medicine (FIXX) and 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

• Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 16-upside were +0.37% (BCLI) to +9.86% (CLLS) while the 16-downside ranges from -0.18% (FATE) to -8.09% (CLBS);

• Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 20-upside were +0.15% (MDXG) to +15.33% (CLBS) while the 14-downside ranges from -0.51% (FIXX) to -7.06% (GBT);

• Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 20-upside were +0.20% (MESO) to +8.56% (AGTC) while the 15-downside ranges from -0.09% (BCLI) to -12.47% (BLCM);

• Monday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.04% (ALNY) to +15.67% (BCLM) while the 13- downside of -0.14% (KDNY) to -5.96% (RGNX);

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

Senate Majority Leader McConnell said he has seen “movement in the right direction” toward a coronavirus stimulus deal. Congressional leaders still have a lot of work to do to scrape together a relief package before the end of the year.

Even though, Senate Minority Leader Schumer, D-N.Y., said his GOP counterpart “does not seem inclined to compromise.” McConnell’s plan includes a Covid-19 liability shield for businesses and universities, which Democrats oppose<CNBC>

Adding to those troubles, Pfizer (PFE) is dialing back its coronavirus vaccine rollout plan for this year due to supply chain issues.

Infection cases <Million>:

• Thursday 13.94 M cases
• Wednesday 13.75 M cases
• Tuesday 13.54 M cases
• Monday 13.38 M cases

Thursday’s death rate totaled 273,920 after Wednesday’s 271,064, Tuesday’s 268,129, Monday’s 266,887, Friday’s 263,525 as last Thursday was a holiday and not recorded. <Johns Hopkins University>

Stats:

Upside volume: 

• Thursday: 8 out of the 16-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Wednesday: 9 out of the 20-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Tuesday: 10 out of the 20-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Monday: 12 out of the 21-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

• Thursday was up +0.11 points or +0.52% at 21.28
• Wednesday was up +0.40 points or +1.93% at 21.17
• Tuesday was up +0.20 points or +0.97% at 20.77
• Monday was down -0.27 points or -1.30% at 20.57

Downside volume:

• Thursday: 8 out of the 16-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Wednesday: 5 out of the 14-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Tuesday: 5 out of the 15-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Monday: 9 out of the 13-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

December, the 3^rd month of Q4 …

Thursday closed neutral with 16 advancers, 16 decliners and 3 flats 

Wednesday closed positive with 20 advancers, 14 decliners and 1 flat 

Tuesday (12/1) closed positive with 20 advancers, 15 decliners and 1 flat 

The Bottom Line: Life inside a stock market bubble is great until someone takes out a pin! <MarketWatch>

Sitting on a portfolio is foolish, “different fuels feed every bubble, and this one includes working from home, increased leisure time, low trading costs and abundant investing commentary to sustain one’s appetite”.

MY, warnings are sound about elevated valuations but it remains hard to walk away from higher pricing; but, review the charts, dips and slips partial exits prepare tour positions before the sector corrects.

And it will …

Trouble is, no one sees the bus that hits them … short-term trading builds cash positions, eliminates periodic downtrends before the always coming down trends.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.