RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: a merry-go-round ride

December 9, 2020 5:17pm

Investors are tired of volatile rides even though the recent “run” has been trendy

Pre-open indication results: 5 HITs and 5 MISS

An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector.  I track the numbers, so there’s no question re my opinion; so, you can do what others can't.

The Dow closed DOWN -105.07 points (-0.57%); the S&P closed DOWN -29.43 points (-0.79%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -243.82 points (1.94%)

Henry’omics:

Indexes were wrestled to the floor tapping as prospects of fiscal aid is still caught in a headlock of words between political parties.

Earlier in the session, all three (Dow, S&P and Nasdaq) averages touched fresh intraday records.

The volatile negotiations come amid the worst days of the coronavirus pandemic so far. More than 200,000 Americans are testing positive for the coronavirus every day on average, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. <CNBC>

Hammered in today’s market:

• Ultragenyx (RARE), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Pluristem (PSTI), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) to name 5 of the 22 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum: 

• Editas Medicine (EDIT), Regenxbio (RGNX), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Sangamo therapeutics (SGMO) to name 5 of the 10 inclining of the 35 covered

Pre-open indication: 5 HITs <SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.00 to $1.35 with 384 shares traded), SELL into strength: Athersys (ATHX +$0.04), BUY: Intellia therapeutics (NTLA +$1.45), BUY - CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.16); SELL on News: Pluristem (PSTI -$4.46), BUY on News: Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.56)> and 5 MISS <Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.17); bluebird bio (BLUE -$1.79), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.25) – I’ll take my chances on these bottoms; SELL from Buy: Editas Medicine (EDIT +$7.40); Maintaining SELL: Mesoblast (MESO +$0.20);  >

This morning, I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: which way today? I don’t see the legs of support. COVID-19 infections are out-of-control, hospitalizations have dramatically rise, no fiscal aid package as negotiations stall as holidays approach with NO toll-out calendar for individual or even group plan for vaccination.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11669

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

• Wednesday opened positive at 21/12 and 2 flats, flipped negative at the mid-day at 9/24 and 3 flats, closing negative at 10/22 and 3 flats;
• Tuesday opened negative at 15/18 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 15/17 and 3 flats, closing positive at 19/14 and 2 flats;
• Monday opened positive at 25/9 and 1 flat, strayed negative at the mid-day at 13/20 and 2 flats, closing negative at 14/20 and 1 flat;

Key metrics:

• Sector volume was LOW with 8 of the 10-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 13 of 22-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

• Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 10-upside were +0.11% (CRSP) to +17.14% (EDIT) while the 22-downside ranges from -0.58% (VCEL) to -38.92% (PSTI);

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

• Wednesday, the IBB closed down -1.88% and XBI closed down -2.03%
• Tuesday, the IBB closed up +1.77% and XBI closed up +1.93%
• Monday, the IBB closed up +0.01% and XBI closed up +0.93%

Wednesday’s (10 of 10) incliners:

• Editas Medicine (EDIT +$7.40 after Tuesday’s +$4.13 after Monday’s +$4.56);
• Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.56 after Tuesday’s +$0.87 and Monday’s -$1.36);
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.45 after Tuesday’s +$0.67 and Monday’s +$3.15);
• BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.86 after Tuesday’s -$2.65 and Monday’s +$0.99);
• Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.55 after Tuesday’s +$0.40 and Monday’s -$0.71);
• Mesoblast (MESO +$0.20 after Tuesday’s +$0.25 and Monday’s +$0.44);
• CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.16 after Tuesday’s -$3,25 after Monday’s +$2.18);
• uniQure NV (QURE +$0.11 after Tuesday’s +$0.25 and Monday’s -$2.83);
• Athersys (ATHX +$0.04);

Wednesday’s (10 of 22) decliner:

• Ultragenyx (RARE -$8.81 after Tuesday’s +$7.75 and Monday’s +$1.40);
• Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$5.00 after Tuesday’s +$7.83 and Monday’s +$22.98);
• Pluristem (PSTI -$4.46);
• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.01 after Tuesday’s +$1.24 and Monday’s -$2.75);
• Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$2.33 after Tuesday’s -$1.33 and Monday’s -$0.91);
• Cellectis SA (CLLS-$2.24 after Tuesday’s -$0.21 after Monday’s +$0.75);
• bluebird bio (BLUE -$1.79 after Tuesday’s -$1.00 and Monday’s -$1.52);
• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.66 after Tuesday’s -$1.17 and Monday’s +$0.27);
• Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.68);
• AxoGen (AXGN -$0.45 after Tuesday’s -$0.59 and Monday’s +$0.80);

Closing – 2 Biostage (BSTG), ReNeuron (RENE.L) and 1– Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

• Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 10-upside were +0.11% (CRSP) to +17.14% (EDIT) while the 22-downside ranges from -0.58% (VCEL) to -38.92% (PSTI);
• Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 19-upside were +0.17% (MDXG) to +10.58% (EDIT) while the 14-downside of -0.70% (CLLS) to -6.64% (BLFS);
• Monday’s percentage (%) of the 14-upside were +0.38% (SAGE) to +37.80% (FATE) while the 20-downside of -0.07% (RENE.L) to -9.71% (BLCM);

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

Fiscal aid is stymied by political party stubbornness; politicians need to pass a rescue bill by next week, before an expansion of jobless benefits and an eviction moratorium expire.

Infection cases <Million>:

• Wednesday 15.24 M cases
• Tuesday 15.01 M cases
• Monday 14.79 M cases

Wednesday’s death rate totaled 287,550 after Tuesday’s 284,887, Monday’s 282,522, Friday’s 227,639, Thursday’s 273,920 and last Wednesday’s 271,064 <Johns Hopkins University>

Stats:

Upside volume: 

• Wednesday: 8 out of the 10-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Tuesday: 10 out of the 19-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Monday: 9 out of the 14-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

• Wednesday was up +1.71 points or +8.27% at 22.39
• Tuesday was down -0.62 points or -2.91% at 20.68
• Monday was up +0.51 points or +2.45% at 21.30

Downside volume:

• Wednesday: 13 out of the 22-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Tuesday: 10 out of the 14-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Monday: 9 out of the 20-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

December, the 3^rd month of Q4 …

Wednesday closed negative with 10 advancers, 22 decliners and 3 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 19 advancers, 14 decliners and 2 flats 

Monday (12/7) closed negative with 14 advancers, 20 decliners and 1 flat 

Friday closed positive with 25 advancers, 9 decliners and 2 flats 

Thursday closed neutral with 16 advancers, 16 decliners and 3 flats 

Wednesday closed positive with 20 advancers, 14 decliners and 1 flat 

Tuesday (12/1) closed positive with 20 advancers, 15 decliners and 1 flat 

The Bottom Line: As I have stated yesterday morning – “declines stretch share pricing as uncertainty inclines” and This a.m.’s “I don’t see the legs of support”.

Markets have grown discouraged over the fiscal aid “balks” while the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns and overwhelmed hospital system.

Current valuations have been vulnerable to any bad news such as unexpected setbacks in the roll-out of coronavirus vaccines or delays in stimulus provided an additional drag.

Seems I am right again, 8 of 12 sessions and on we ... go!

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.