December 11, 2020 5:27pm

With a market response to risks of a government shutdown as senators threaten to hold up funding bill

The week in review

Pre-open indication results: 9 HITs and 2 MISS, it was a show me the money session

An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector.  I track the numbers, so there’s no question re my opinion; so, you can do what others can't.

Closing explanations on what you need to know for the next week!

The Dow closed UP +47.11 points (+0.16%); the S&P closed DOWN -4.64 points (-0.13%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -27.94 points (-0.23%)

 

Henry’omics:

After a mixed path run than a usual trek, the indexes slowed to walk it off …

Actually, for the week, the “downs” have affected the Dow (-0.6%), the S&P 500 (-1%) and the Nasdaq (-0.7%) as negotiations over a coronavirus relief deal dragged on.

Friday’s moves came as negotiations over a coronavirus relief deal dragged on. Lawmakers seek to pass a bill before the end of 2020, but disagreements over state and local stimulus, unemployment assistance and stimulus checks still exist. <CN

 

Surprises:

  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.49) and bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.15)

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Editas Medicine (EDIT), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Sangamo Therapeutics (AGMO), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) to name 5 of the 20 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum: 

  • Ultragenyx (RARE), ReNeuron (RENE.L), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Regenxbio (RGNX)name 5 of the 13 inclining of the 35 covered

 

Pre-open indication: 9 HITs <SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.00 to $1.35 with 83 shares traded): BUY: Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.13); SELL: Athersys (ATHX -$0.13); BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.11), Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.71): SKIM and TRIM: CRISPER Therapeutics (CRSP -$5.85), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$4.92), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.60), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$3.37) and 2 MISS < bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.15), Pluristem (PSTI -$0.29)>

 

This morning, I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: after a pop in the sector after Wednesday’s flop, the sector reaches or lingers? A mixed bag of possible entries, exits and profit moves” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11673

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Friday opened negative at 10/21 and 4 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 12/21 and 2 flats, closing negative at 13/20 and 2 flats;
  • Thursday opened positive at 28/5 and 3 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 23/9 and 3 flats, closing positive at 22/9 and 4 flats;
  • Wednesday opened positive at 21/12 and 2 flats, flipped negative at the mid-day at 9/24 and 3 flats, closing negative at 10/22 and 3 flats;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 15/18 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day at 15/17 and 3 flats, closing positive at 19/14 and 2 flats;
  • Monday opened positive at 25/9 and 1 flat, strayed negative at the mid-day at 13/20 and 2 flats, closing negative at 14/20 and 1 flat;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 8 of the 13-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 7 of 20-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 13-upside were +0.27% (BLFS) to +51.62% (SLDB) while the 20-downside ranges from -0.35% (BLUE) to -21.53% (SGMO);

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed up +0.25% and XBI closed down -0.06%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +1.50% and XBI closed up +3.69%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -1.88% and XBI closed down -2.03%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +1.77% and XBI closed up +1.93%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +0.01% and XBI closed up +0.93%

 

Friday’s (10 of 20) incliners:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$10.75 after Thursday’s+$5.32, Wednesday’s -$8.81, Tuesday’s +$7.75 and Monday’s +$1.40);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$4.00);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.60 after Thursday’s +$2.01, Wednesday’s -$4.01 after Tuesday’s +$1.24 and Monday’s -$2.75);
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$1.91);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.11 after Thursday’s -$0.08, Wednesday’s +$1.56, Tuesday’s +$0.87 and Monday’s -$1.36);
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.49 after Thursday’s -$0.10);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.35);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.20 after Thursday’s -$0.07 and Wednesday’s -$0.68);
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.17 after Thursday’s -$0.20, Wednesday’s +$0.20, Tuesday’s +$0.25 and Monday’s +$0.44);
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.14 after Thursday’s -$0.05);

Friday’s (10 of 13) decliner:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$5.85 after Thursday’s +$7.63 after Wednesday’s +$0.16, Tuesday’s -$3,25 after Monday’s +$2.18);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$4.92 after Thursday’s +$16.26, Wednesday’s +$7.40, Tuesday’s +$4.13 after Monday’s +$4.56);
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$3.37 after Thursday’s +$5.42, Wednesday’s +$0.55, Tuesday’s +$0.40 and Monday’s -$0.71);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.60 after Thursday’s +$7.15, Wednesday’s +$1.45, Tuesday’s +$0.67 and Monday’s +$3.15);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$2.11 after Thursday’s -$10.25, Wednesday’s -$5.00, Tuesday’s +$7.83 and Monday’s +$22.98);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.71 after Thursday’s +$2.48, Wednesday’s -$2.24, Tuesday’s -$0.21 and Monday’s +$0.75);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.63);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.57 after Thursday’s -$0.27, Wednesday’s -$2.33, Tuesday’s -$1.33 and Monday’s -$0.91);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.49);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.37);

Closing flat – 1 - Biostage (BSTG) and 1– Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 13-upside were +0.27% (BLFS) to +51.62% (SLDB) while the 20-downside ranges from -0.35% (BLUE) to -21.53% (SGMO);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 22-upside were +0.27% (GBT) to +52.98% (SGMO) while the 9-downside ranges from -0.21% (RGNX) to -11.14% (PSTI);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 10-upside were +0.11% (CRSP) to +17.14% (EDIT) while the 22-downside ranges from -0.58% (VCEL) to -38.92% (PSTI);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 19-upside were +0.17% (MDXG) to +10.58% (EDIT) while the 14-downside of -0.70% (CLLS) to -6.64% (BLFS);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 14-upside were +0.38% (SAGE) to +37.80% (FATE) while the 20-downside of -0.07% (RENE.L) to -9.71% (BLCM);

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

Sentiment was believe-it-or-not downbeat on Friday even as a key FDA advisory panel recommended the approval of Pfizer and BioNTech’s coronavirus vaccine for emergency use. The recommendation marked the last step before the FDA gives the final approval to broadly distribute the first doses throughout the U.S. NO one would explain the nay votes and abstention?

Infection cases <Million>:

  • Friday 15.61 M cases
  • Thursday 15.39 M cases
  • Wednesday 15.24 M cases
  • Tuesday 15.01 M cases
  • Monday 14.79 M cases

Friday’s death rate totaled 292,190 after Thursday’s 289,451, Wednesday’s 287,550, Tuesday’s 284,887, Monday’s 282,522 and last Friday’s 227,639 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

Upside volume: 

  • Friday: 8 out of the 13-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 13 out of the 22-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 8 out of the 10-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 10 out of the 19-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 9 out of the 14-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +0.79 points or +3.51% at 23.31
  • Thursday was up +0.25 points or +1.12% at 22.52
  • Wednesday was up +1.71 points or +8.27% at 22.39
  • Tuesday was down -0.62 points or -2.91% at 20.68
  • Monday was up +0.51 points or +2.45% at 21.30

Downside volume:

  • Friday: 7 out of the 20-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 7 out of the 9-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 13 out of the 22-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 10 out of the 14-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 9 out of the 20-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

December, the 3rd month of Q4 …

Friday closed negative with 13 advancers, 20 decliners and 2 flats 

Thursday closed positive with 22 advancers, 9 decliners and 4 flats 

Wednesday closed negative with 10 advancers, 22 decliners and 3 flats 

Tuesday closed positive with 19 advancers, 14 decliners and 2 flats  

Monday (12/7) closed negative with 14 advancers, 20 decliners and 1 flat 

Friday closed positive with 25 advancers, 9 decliners and 2 flats 

Thursday closed neutral with 16 advancers, 16 decliners and 3 flats 

Wednesday closed positive with 20 advancers, 14 decliners and 1 flat 

Tuesday (12/1) closed positive with 20 advancers, 15 decliners and 1 flat 

 

The Bottom Line: Optimism (a non-quantifiable factor) sinks as near-term fiscal stimulus deal fades thus a market slip…

Although, “The House and Senate passed a one-week federal spending extension to avoid a shutdown through Dec. 18 to buy more time to reach a stimulus agreement.”

As I have stated, “When the wind blows, there are times to move with it” … editing equities (CRSP, NTLA and EDIT) got a big boost in the aftermath of the annual American Society of Hematology (ASH) meeting. However, it was time to … “show me the money”.

Again, when the oversold get ripe – it’s time to recognize value by selling a “portion” of our holdings while still maintaining a basic position.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.