December 18, 2020 5:29pm

Massive volume as many had to “cover” positions on Friday as quadruple witching, when options and futures on indexes and equities expire with fiscal aid a.k.a. stimulus negotiations still on-going

Week in review …

Pre-open indication results: 8 HITs and 0 MISS

An “intelligence newspaper” for smart investing in the RegMed, gene and cell therapy sector.  I track the numbers, so there’s no question re my opinion; so, you can do what others can't.

Closing explanations on what you need to know for the next week!

The Dow closed DOWN -124.32 points (-0.41 %); the S&P closed DOWN -13.07 points (-0.35%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -9.11 points (-0.07%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes dipped from record highs in volatile trading on Friday as lawmakers struggled to bridge differences on additional fiscal aid a.k.a. stimulus measures.

The Dow gained 0.4% for the week. while the S&P 500 advanced 1.3% and the Nasdaq inclined 3.1%.

 

All-time or 52-week highs:

  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB) reached a 52-week of $7.60, then fell to $7.32, Precigen (PGEN) also reached a 52-week high of $9.62

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Mesoblast (MESO), uniQure NV (QURE), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY), Cellectis SA (CLLS), CRISPER Therapeutics (CRSP) to name 5 of the 11 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx (RARE), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), to name 5 of the 21 inclining of the 35 covered

 

Pre-open indication: 8 HITs < SELL: Maintaining SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.12 with 110 shares traded); SELL into Strength: Adverum Pharmaceuticals (ADVM -$0.37), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.13), Precigen (PGEN +$1.44), Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.60), Mesoblast (MESO -$4.30), MiMedx (MDXG +$0.26), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$5.16)> and 0 MISS

 

This morning, I stated in this a.m.’s newsletter – RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “what’s sustainable? All three indexes documented record highs as optimism of vaccines and fiscal aid hopes prevailed.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11685

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Friday opened positive at 26/6 and 3 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 28/6 and 1 flat, closing positive at 21/11 and 3 flats;
  • Thursday opened positive at 18/15 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 22/10 and 3 flats, closing positive at 28/5 and 2 flats;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 18/14 and 3 flats, strayed positive at the mid-day at 18/14 and 3 flats, closing neutral at 16/16 and 3 flats;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 15/17 and 3 flats, strayed positive at the mid-day at 19/15 and 1 flat, closing positive at 20/14 and 1 flat;
  • Monday opened positive at 29/5 and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day at 28/5 and 2 flats, closing positive at 23/11 and 1 flat;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume GROSSED UP with 21 of the 21-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 9 of 11-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.16% (PSTI) to +17.58% (PGEN) while the 11-downside ranges from -0.09% (BLUE) to -31.69% (MESO);

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed up +0.43% and XBI closed up +0.61%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +1.43% and XBI closed up +1.47%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -0.66% and XBI closed down -1.23%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +0.19% and XBI closed up +0.18%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +2.34% and XBI closed up +2.66%

 

Friday’s (10 of 21) incliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$7.00 after Thursday’s +$2.50);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$5.16 after Thursday’s +$2.11, Wednesday’s +$2.65, Tuesday’s +$1.19 and Monday’s +$1.64);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.74);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$3.48 after Thursday’s +$3.70, Wednesday’s +$1.98, Tuesday’s +$4.56 and Monday’s +$8.28);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$3.14 after Thursday’s +$1.40, Wednesday’s -$1.69, Tuesday’s +$3.65 and Monday’s +$2.02
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.70 after Thursday’s -$1.28 and Wednesday’s -$0.94);
  • Precigen (PGEN +$1.44);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.32);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.97 after Thursday’s +$1.15, Wednesday’s -$0.26, Tuesday’s +$1.53 and Monday’s -$1.16);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.02);
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.92);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.01);

Friday’s (11 of 11) decliner:

  • Mesoblast (MESO -$4.30);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$2.25);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$1.85 after Thursday’s +$1.71 and Wednesday’s +$2.19);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.60 after Thursday’s -$0.89, Wednesday’s +$2.33, Tuesday’s -$5.35 and Monday’s +$1.70);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.52 after Thursday’s +$2.52 and Wednesday’s -$3.36);
  • Adverum biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.37);
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.16);
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.12);
  • Verastem (VSTM -$0.08)
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.05);
  • bluebird bio (-$0.04);

Closing flat - 2 – Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS), Solid Biosciences (SLDB) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.16% (PSTI) to +17.58% (PGEN) while the 11-downside ranges from -0.09% (BLUE) to -31.69% (MESO);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 28-upside were +0.20% (FATE) to +24.07% (SLDB) while the 5-downside ranges from -0.23% (VYGR) to -3.16% (CLLS);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 16-upside were +0.20% (BLUE) to +19% (MDXG) while the 16-downside ranges from -0.17% (SLDB) to -8.12% (ADVM);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 20-upside were +0.06% (VYGR) to +23.38% (SLDB) while the 14-downside of -0.06% (CRSP) to -22.32% (PGEN);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 23-upside were +0.60% (RGNX) to +23.12% (KDNY) while the 11-downside of -0.41% (MESO) to -14.62% (SLDB);

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

Last-minute disputes preventing Congress from passing a relief deal includes direct payments, small business loans and a boost to unemployment insurance.

Infection cases <Million>:

  • Friday 17.22 M cases
  • Thursday 17 M cases
  • Wednesday 16.73 M cases
  • Tuesday 16.52 M cases
  • Monday 16.25 M cases

Friday’s death rate totaled 311,010 after Thursday’s 307,770, Wednesday’s 304,094, Tuesday’s 300,723, Monday’s 299,191 and last Friday’s 292,190 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

Upside volume:

  • Friday: 21 out of the 21-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 13 out of the 28-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 11 out of the 16-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 12 out of the 20-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 18 out of the 23-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.36 points or -1.64% at 21.57
  • Thursday was down -0.57 points or -2.53% at 21.93
  • Wednesday was down -0.39 points or -1.70% at 22.50
  • Tuesday was down -1.83 points or -7.40% at 22.89
  • Monday was up +1.41 points or +6.05% at 24.72

Downside volume:

  • Friday: 9 out of the 11-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 3 out of the 5-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 7 out of the 16-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 12 out of the 14-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 8 out of the 13-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

December, the 3rd month of Q4 …

Friday closed positive with 21 advancers, 11 decliners and 3 flats

Thursday closed positive with 28 advancers, 5 decliners and 2 flats

Wednesday closed neutral with 16 advancers, 16 decliners and 3 flats

Tuesday closed positive with xx advancers, xx decliners and x flats

Monday (12/14) closed positive with 23 advancers, 12 decliners and 1 flat

Friday closed negative with 13 advancers, 20 decliners and 2 flats

Thursday closed positive with 22 advancers, 9 decliners and 4 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 10 advancers, 22 decliners and 3 flats

Tuesday closed positive with 19 advancers, 14 decliners and 2 flats

Monday (12/7) closed negative with 14 advancers, 20 decliners and 1 flat

Friday closed positive with 25 advancers, 9 decliners and 2 flats

Thursday closed neutral with 16 advancers, 16 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 20 advancers, 14 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday (12/1) closed positive with 20 advancers, 15 decliners and 1 flat

 

The Bottom Line: A hell of a lot of “covering” was going-on with a quadruple witching Friday.

Maintaining caution is STILL warranted; as optimism is “ruling’ markets. MY guidance is numbers-based and is tied to the sector’s progressions and depressions in relation to market moves.

investors should as much volatility in the short term with stretched valuations amid developments on the stimulus and vaccine front, before the economy returns to growth in 2021

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.