January 4, 2021 6:04pm

Hurdles and momentum bumps exist in the market’s outlook as election politics confuse market and economic growth while vaccine distribution as COVID-19 cases continue to confuse yet, slowly increase

Numbers and facts speak better then opinion

Pre-open indication: 1 HIT and pre-open indication prognosis on target

News of proposed offering: Fate Therapeutics (FATE) for $350 M <read more>

 

Closing explanations on what you need to know for the next session!

The Dow closed DOWN -382.59 points (-1.25%); the S&P closed DOWN -55.42 points (-1.48%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -189.84 points (-1.47%)

 

Henry’omics:

Stocks fell Monday in the first session of 2021 after briefly rising to touch fresh record highs earlier in the session.

It was the biggest one-day sell-off since Oct. 28 for the Dow and S&P 500, while the Nasdaq had its worst daily performance since Dec. 9.

All three major indices dropped more than 1.5% intraday on Monday, after the S&P 500 and Dow earlier ticked up to record intraday levels.

 

Data Docket:

  • U.S. construction spending increased by 0.9% in November following an upwardly revised rise of 1.6% in October; slightly below consensus economists’ estimates for a 1.0% increase, construction spending was up 3.8% over the same month in 2019.
  • The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest rate in six years in December, according to IHS Markit, in the latest sign of the recovery in goods-producing industries. IHS Markit’s final manufacturing sector purchasing managers’ index rose to 57.1 in December following an earlier print of 56.5 for the month. Readings above the neutral level of 50.0 indicate expansion of a sector.

 

News of proposed $350 M stock offering with a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional $52.5 million of shares by Fate Therapeutics (FATE) by Jefferies, BofA Securities, SVB Leerink and Barclays are acting as joint book-running managers for the offering.

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene therapy 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Monday opened negative at 12/21 and 2 flats, strayed positive at the mid-day at 19/15 and 1 flat, closing positive at 26/7, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

New high:

  • Precigen (PGEN) reached a 52-week high of $10.98 to close at $10.95

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM), AxoGen (AXGN), Regenxbio (RGNX), to name 7 of the 7 declining of the 35 covered

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • ReNeuron RENE.L), CRISPER Therapeutics (CRSP), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) to name 5 of the 26 inclining of the 35 covered

Pre-open indication: 1 HIT - Biostage (BSTG -$0.00 to $1.25)

  • Today, it took 2,652 shares for this equity to close FLAT at $1.25; it was down -$0.10. to $1.15 or -8% (twice) during the session – “pump” away. Still NO hint of a clinical trial initiation after spending approximately $75 M.

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB closed down -0.66% and XBI closed up +0.12%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -0.65% and XBI closed down -2.29%

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 7 of the 26-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 2 of 7-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 26-upside were +0.14% (PSTI) to +12.73% (RENE.L) while the 7-downside ranges from -0.80% (SAGE) to -3.68% (BLCM);

 

Monday’s (10 of 26) incliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$10.50);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$4.90 after Thursday’s -$8.46)
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$2.34 after Thursday’s -$0.97);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.51 after Thursday’s -$2.18);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.48 after Thursday’s -$6.39);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$1.39);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$1.14);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.95);
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.75 after Thursday’s +$0.25
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.63 after Thursday’s -$1.03);

Monday’s (7 of 7) decliners:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.96 after Thursday’s -$5.94);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.87 after Thursday’s -$1.07);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.25 after Thursday’s -$2.69);
  • Sage therapeutics (SAGE -$0.69 after Thursday’s -$2.15);
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.39 after Thursday’s +$0.20);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.39);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.13 after Thursday’s +$0.03);

Closing FLAT  1 – Biostage (BSTG) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 26-upside were +0.14% (PSTI) to +12.73% (RENE.L) while the 7-downside ranges from -0.80% (SAGE) to -3.68% (BLCM);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 4-upside were +0.86% (BLCM) to +3.31% (BSTG) while the 29-downside ranges from -0.47% (MESO) to -8.35% (EDIT);

 

Sentiment and a few daily indicators:

The United States is averaging more than 2,600 deaths each day, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. December was the most deadly and infectious month of the pandemic for the nation, yet U.S. air travel hit its highest level since mid-March on Sunday with more than 1.3 million people passing through airport security checkpoints. <CNBC>

However, the U.S. rollout of multiple Covid-19 vaccines has recently been slowed down due to supply constraints.

Infection cases <Million>:

  • Monday 20.64 M cases
  • Thursday 19.82 M cases

Monday’s death rate totaled 351,774 after Thursday’s 343,818, Wednesday’s 340,956, Tuesday’s 336,947 and last Monday’s 334,025 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

Upside volume:

  • Monday: 7 out of the 26-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 2 out of the 4-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was up +4.22 points or +18.55% at 26.97
  • Thursday was down -0.02 points or -0.09% at 22.75

Downside volume:

  • Monday: 2 out of the 7-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 6 out of the 29-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

January, the 1st month of Q1 …

Monday (1/4) closed positive with 26 advancers, 7 decliners and 2 flats

 

The Bottom Line: The sector beat the odd of falling with the rest of the indexes and especially the Nasdaq. The fate of markets and stocks rests on the Georgia Senate races although risk assets are likely to make further gains in the first half, regardless of the results.

Never forget, the Pac-man algorithms are hungry!

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.