January 22, 2021 5:19pm

The roller-coaster creates sudden and extreme changes – it’s a question of fastening your emotions

Pre-open indication: 8 HITs and 3 MISS and the week in review

News: Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE +$4.85) The FDA has cleared the IND application for UX701, being evaluated for the treatment of Wilson Disease; a rare inherited disorder, in which excess copper builds up in the body. Its symptoms are typically related to the brain and liver.

Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investor profiting!

Are we here to make money or see share pricing erode as earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season is about to begin? Numbers based facts speak better then opinion as I see answers in numbers

The Dow closed DOWN -179.03 points (-0.57%); the S&P closed DOWN -11.60 points (-0.30%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +12.15 points (+0.09%)

 

Henry’omics:

The Dow and S&P retreated as the Nasdaq came back to the upside to end the week on a mixed note.

… As a spike in coronavirus infections and the possibility of stricter lockdowns offset expectations of more economic support from the Biden administration.

 

Sentiment and COVID-19 infections:

Sentiment was about weakness as Investors reassessed the outlook for President Biden’s … ambitious COVID-19 stimulus plan. Dissent from either party carries weight for Biden, who took office with a slim majority in Congress.

Infection cases <Million>: never to forget …

  • Friday 24.64 M cases,
  • Friday’s death rate totaled 410,637 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

This a.m.’s post, “pre-open: hop in the session, follow those bouncing share prices. It’s a short-term ride, pay-up, follow and slow walk the upside.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11734

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Friday opened negative at 4/28 and 3 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day to 15/18 and 2 flats, closing positive at 21/13 and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened negative at 2/31 and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day to 8/26 and 1 flat, closing negative at 9/25 and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 13/18 and 4 flats, flipped neutral at the mid-day to 17/17 and 1 flat, closing negative at 16/18 and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened positive at 27/6 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day at 20/13 and 2 flats, closing positive at 18/14, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Monday was holiday

 

Pre-open indication:

  • 8 HITs <Biostage (BSTG -$0.07 with 441 shares traded, Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS -$0.11), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.39), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.97), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.77), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$2.48), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.48), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.46); 3 MISS < Vericel (VCEL +$1.08), bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.20) Precigen (PGEN +$0.07)>

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 4 of the 21 -upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 3 of 13-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.40% (RENE.L) to +6.01% (ATHX) while the 13-downside ranges from -0.22% (ADVM) to-4.61% (BSTG);

 

There are clear winners — and losers — heading into the first month of 2021.

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) to name 5 of the 21 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Cellectis SA (CLLS), AxoGen (AXGN) to name 5 of the 13 declining of the 35 covered

 

Friday’s (10 of 21) incliners:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$7.38 after Thursday’s -$2.06, Wednesday’s -$3.72 and Tuesday’s +$0.90);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.63 after Thursday’s -$4.22, Wednesday’s +$2.56 and Tuesday’s +$2.05);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.39 after Thursday’s -$4.67, Wednesday’s -$8.52 and Tuesday’s -$1.59);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.97 after Thursday’s -$7.97);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.77 after Thursday’s -$7.97, Wednesday’s -$3.12 and Tuesday’s +$1.79);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.08 after Thursday’s +$0.42 after Wednesday’s +$0.75);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.68);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.58 after Thursday’s -$1.94, Wednesday’s -$3.22 and Tuesday’s -$0.49);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.52);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$0.50 after Wednesday’s -$9.50 and Tuesday’s flat);

Friday’s (10 of 13) decliners:

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$3.89 after Thursday’s +$1.23, Wednesday’s +$1.66 and Tuesday’s -$1.83);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$2.48 after Thursday’s -$9.34, Wednesday’s -$5.30 and Tuesday’s +$0.72);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.36 after Thursday’s +$2.13, Wednesday’s -$0.52 and Tuesday’s +$0.79);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.35 after Thursday’s -$1.47);
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.28);
  • Global Blood therapeutics (GBT -$0.37);
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.23);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.20 after Thursday’s -$1.04, Wednesday’s -$1.63 and Tuesday’s -$1.02);
  • Brainstorm Cell therapeutics (BCLI -$0.14 after Thursday’s +$0.24);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.14);

Closing 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed up +0.81% and XBI closed up +1.18%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -0.89% and XBI closed down -2.17%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +0.10% and XBI closed down -0.06%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +1.93% and XBI closed up +1.64%
  • Monday was holiday

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +0.50 points or +2.77% at 21.91
  • Thursday was down -0.26 points or -1.20% at 21.32
  • Wednesday was down -1.66 points or -7.14% at 21.58
  • Tuesday was down -1.10 points or -4.52% at 23.24
  • Monday was a holiday

Upside volume:

  • Friday: 4 out of the 21-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 3 out of the 9-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 5 out of the 16-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 5 out of the 18-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday was a holiday

Downside volume:

  • Friday: 3 out of the 13-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 9 out of the 25-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 6 out of the 18-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 7 out of the 14-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday was a holiday

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.40% (RENE.L) to +6.01% (ATHX) while the 13-downside ranges from -0.22% (ADVM) to-4.61% (BSTG);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.40% (RENE.L) to +7.04% (BSTG) while the 25-downside ranges from -0.32% (MESO) to-13.49% (CLBS);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 16-upside were +0.25% (PSTI) to +77.30% (CLBS) while the 18-downside ranges from -0.17% (SLDB) to-10.20% (VSTM);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 18-upside were +0.63% (FATE) to +15.57% (BSTG) while the 14-downside ranges from -0.07% (KDNY) to -6.64% (SLDB);
  • Monday was a holiday

 

January, the 1st month of Q1 …

Friday closed negative with 21 advancers, 13 decliners and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 9 advancers, 25 decliners and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 18 advancers, 16 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Monday (1/18) was a holiday

Friday closed negative with 10 advancers, 24 decliners and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 27 advancers, 7 decliners and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed positive with 10 advancers, 21 decliners and 4 flats

Tuesday closed positive with 21 advancers, 13 decliners and 1 flat

Monday (1/11) closed negative with 13 advancers, 20 decliners and 2 flats

Friday closed negative with 16 advancers, 18 decliners and 1 flat

Thursday closed positive with 31 advancers, 2 decliners and 2 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 22 advancers, 12 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed positive with 19 advancers, 14 decliners and 2 flats

Monday (1/4) closed positive with 26 advancers, 7 decliners and 2 flats

 

The Bottom Line: NOT much has changed … “I see the pace of vaccinations as a key driver of equities through Q1-Q2/2021.”

There is STILL a short-term tone in the sector – “our’ universe of RegMed, stem, cell and gene therapy equities.

Wednesday’s and Thursday’s negative closes “might have had less to do with the inauguration than it does with investors taking advantage of recent performance to lighten-up on appreciators”.

To make money in this sector, one has to know when to get out and which individual equity you should stay in!

Forewarned … Earnings LPS (los-per-share) season is coming quickly – my advice, trim and skim!!

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.