January 25, 2021 5:27pm
The sector is bubblicious, blowing a bubble, popping it, chewing and doing it again
Pre-open indication: 9 HITs and 4 MISS
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Are we here to make money or see share pricing erode as earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season is about to begin? Numbers based facts speak better then opinion as I see answers in numbers
The Dow closed DOWN -36.98 points (-0.12%); the S&P closed UP +13.89 points (-0.36%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +92.93 points (+0.69%)
Henry’omics:
Indexes were mixed as the Dow dipped and the S&P erased earlier losses and rose slightly to a record on Monday while the Nasdaq reach a fresh closing high.
Sentiment and COVID-19 infections:
The number of coronavirus cases continues to tick up in the U.S. and abroad, but many economists are forecasting a return to growth later this year. <CNBC>
Infection cases <Million>: never to forget …
- Monday 25.13 M cases,
- Monday’s death rate totaled 419,263 <Johns Hopkins University>
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “the pandemic exposes direction; Merck (MRK) ends COVID vaccine program, cites inferior immune responses” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11736
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …
- Monday opened positive at 22/10 and 3 flats, flipped neutral at 16/16 and 3 flats, strayed negative at the mid-day to 14/20 and 1 flat, flipped again positive at 22/12 and 1 flat closing positive at 21/13 and 1 acquired;
- Friday opened negative at 4/28 and 3 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day to 15/18 and 2 flats, closing positive at 21/13 and 1 acquired;
Pre-open indication:
- 9 HITs <SELL into Strength: Athersys (ATHX +$0.21), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.31), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$7.25), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS -$0.10), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.29), Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.30); BUY: Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.14), bluebird bio (BLUE +$1.46), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$2.03); 4 MISS < Biostage (BSTG +$0.07 with 126 shares traded: BUY: Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.05), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.96), Mesoblast (MESO -$0.07),
Key metrics:
- Sector volume was LOW with 6 of the 21 -upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 7 of 13-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.10% (CLLS) to +10.82% (ATHX) while the 13-downside ranges from -0.44% (EDIT) to -4.18% (CLBS);
There are clear winners — and losers — heading into the first month of 2021
Jumping with share pricing momentum:
- Ultragenyx (RARE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), sage Therapeutics (SAGE) to name 5 of the 21 inclining of the 35 covered
Hammered in today’s market:
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), ReNeuron (RENE.L), Voyager therapeutics (VYGR) to name 5 of the 13 declining of the 35 covered
Monday’s (10 of 21) incliners:
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$6.29 after Friday’s +$7.38);
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.31 after Friday’s +$5.63);
- Vericel (VCEL +$2.40 after Friday’s +$1.08);
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$2.03);
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.91 after Friday’s -$3.89);
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.71 after Friday’s +$0.58);
- bluebird bio (BLUE +$1.46 after Friday’s -$0.20);
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$1.07);
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.69 after Friday’s -$0.37);
Monday’s (13 of 13) decliners:
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$7.25 after Friday’s +$3.39);
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.96 after Friday’s +$1.77);
- ReNeuron (RENE.L -$2.00 after Friday’s +$0.50);
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.05 after Friday’s -$2.48);
- Voyager therapeutics (VYGR -$0.35);
- Precigen (PGEN -$0.31);
- MiMedx (MDXG -$0.310;
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.29 after Friday’s +$1.97);
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.15 after Friday’s -$0.28);
- Pluristem (PSTI -$0.110;
- Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS -$0.100;
- Mesoblast (MESO -$0.07 after Friday’s -$0.23);
- Verastem (VSTM -$0.06);
Closing 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)
Stats:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB closed up +1.86% and XBI closed up +3%
- Friday, the IBB closed up +0.81% and XBI closed up +1.18%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was up +1.28 points or +5.84% at 23.19
- Friday was up +0.50 points or +2.77% at 21.91
Upside volume:
- Monday: 6 out of the 21-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Friday: 4 out of the 21-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Downside volume:
- Monday: 7 out of the 13-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Friday: 3 out of the 13-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing
- Monday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.10% (CLLS) to +10.82% (ATHX) while the 13-downside ranges from -0.44% (EDIT) to -4.18% (CLBS);
- Friday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.40% (RENE.L) to +6.01% (ATHX) while the 13-downside ranges from -0.22% (ADVM) to-4.61% (BSTG);
January, the 1st month of Q1 …
Monday (1/25) closed positive with 21 advancers, 13 decliners and 1 acquired
Friday closed negative with 21 advancers, 13 decliners and 1 acquired
Thursday closed negative with 9 advancers, 25 decliners and 1 acquired
Wednesday closed negative with 18 advancers, 16 decliners and 1 acquired
Tuesday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired
Monday (1/18) was a holiday
Friday closed negative with 10 advancers, 24 decliners and 1 acquired
Thursday closed positive with 27 advancers, 7 decliners and 1 acquired
Wednesday closed positive with 10 advancers, 21 decliners and 4 flats
Tuesday closed positive with 21 advancers, 13 decliners and 1 flat
Monday (1/11) closed negative with 13 advancers, 20 decliners and 2 flats
Friday closed negative with 16 advancers, 18 decliners and 1 flat
Thursday closed positive with 31 advancers, 2 decliners and 2 flats
Wednesday closed positive with 22 advancers, 12 decliners and 1 flat
Tuesday closed positive with 19 advancers, 14 decliners and 2 flats
Monday (1/4) closed positive with 26 advancers, 7 decliners and 2 flats
The Bottom Line: At least the week starts with the sector off to a positive start …
Signs of a bubble continues to concern me, record highs declining quickly to come back in a variety of equities.
There is STILL a short-term tone in the sector – “our’ universe of RegMed, stem, cell and gene therapy equities.
To make money in this sector, one has to know when to get out and which individual equity you should stay in!
Forewarned … Earnings LPS (los-per-share) season is coming quickly – my advice, trim and skim!!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
