RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: why the “bail”, the tail risks have gotten just too skewed

January 28, 2021 8:10am

I seek advantage in forecasting share pricing declines and incline bounces by refining my indications and warning analysis

Pre-open indication: 8 SELLs, SELL into Strength and 4 BUYs

What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence that ensures that investors are kept apprised of “our” universe, the RegMed/cell and gene therapy sector and its surrounding markets

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Dow futures are UP +0.06% (+19 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.09% (-3 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.42% (-55 points)

Dow futures and S&P 500 are fluctuating while Nasdaq futures are falling on Thursday following a sharp sell-off yesterday,

European stocks pulled back as global markets react to a sharp sell-off in U.S. markets with the pan-European Stoxx 600 falling -2% in early trade,

Asia-Pacific shares fell following the overnight plunge that wiped out the S&P 500′s 2021 gains and left it in negative territory for the year.

Data Docket: The U.S. Fed left its benchmark interest rate anchored near zero following the conclusion of its two-day meeting (Wednesday). The Fed also said it will keep buying at least $120 billion of bonds a month.

Henry’omics:

From the title, “Tail risk is a form of portfolio risk that arises when the possibility that an investment will move more than three standard deviations from the mean is greater than what is shown by a normal distribution. Tail risks include events that have a small probability of occurring, and occur at both ends of a normal distribution curve.” <Investopedia>

The S&P 500 and the Dow posting their worst day since October.

Trading volume exploded in the previous session with 23.7 billion shares changing hands, marking the heaviest trading day since at least 2007. <CNBC>

Markets suffered steep losses on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and the Dow posting their worst day since October, as the speculative buying frenzy in heavily shorted stocks kept investors on edge. Some fear that hedge funds being squeezed could be forced to reduce their equity holdings to raise cash.

Tuesday’s evening’s recap: RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “wipe-out as negativity festers the sector and markets as sector’s last 7 sessions: 5 negative and 2 positive closes expresses the share pricing deflation” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11740

• The Nasdaq closed DOWN -355.47 points (-2.61%);
• The IBB closed down -3.02% and XBI closed down -1.35%;
• Sector volume was LOW with 4 of the 4-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 15 of 26-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
• The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) was up +14.19 points or +61.64% at 37.21;
• Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 4-upside were +1.52% (BLUE) to +14.07% (PGEN) while the 26-downside ranges from -2.55% (VSTM) to-14.63% (ALNY);

January:

• 9 positive, 8 negative closes and 1 holiday, so far

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:

Maintaining Sell:

Biostage (BSTG) closed down up +$0.07 with 126 shares traded after Friday’s -$0.07 with 441 shares traded, Thursday’s +$0.10 to $1.52 with 1,501 shares traded, Wednesday’s +$0.01 to $1.42 with 1,277 shares traded and last Tuesday’s +$0.06 to $1.22 with 8,637 shares traded. Reiterating the WHY bottom-line questions:

• Question#1: Is desperation setting in as BSTG “pumps’ the share price to exercise the warrants?
• Question#2: Let’s hope the new BOD member, Herman Sanchez knows what he is walking into; should he ask Shunfu Hu, director of business development and operations about all the “missing” billing to consultants <e-mails exist> and the odd $429,500.00 remainder of the $1 M Connecticut’s Children’s (Hospital) “gift”? Isn’t due diligence needed before one takes a “seat”?
• Question#3: Doesn’t it seem that DST Capital is behind the race to exercise the warrants?
• Question#4: Have investors forgotten about the terminal death $$$ lawsuit that is still pending against the company?

BUYs:

AxoGen (AXGN) closed down -$1.17 to $17.18 after Tuesday’s $18.35, Monday’s $18.61, Friday’s $18.76 and last Thursday’s $19.04 with a positive +0.02 or +0.12% aftermarket indication;

Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) closed down -$0.57 to $3.88 after Tuesday’s $4.45, Monday’s $4.39, Friday’s $4.17, Thursday’s $4.31 with a positive +$0.04 or +1.03% aftermarket indication;

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed down -$3.33 to $59.19 after Tuesday’s $62.52, Monday’s $63.78, Friday’s $61.75 and last Thursday’s $61.27 with a positive +$1.81 or +3.06% aftermarket indication;

Vericel (VCEL) closed down -$0.70 to $40.15 after Tuesday’s $40.85, Monday’s $43.63, Friday’s +$41.23 and last Thursday’s $40.15 with a positive +$0.85 or +2.12% pre-market indication;

SELL/SELL into Strength:

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed down -$0.27 to $4.45 and then a proposed offering announcement with a positive +$0.10 or +2.25% pre-market indication;

Homology Medicine (FIXX) closed down -$0.57 to $12.47 after Tuesday’s $13.04, Monday’s $13.59, Friday’s +$13.29 and last Thursday’s $12.77 with a negative -$0.22 or -1.86% pre-market indication;

Ultragenyx (RARE) closed down -$3.81 to $136.16 after Tuesday’s $139.97, Monday’s $146.76, Friday’s $140.47 and last Thursday’s $133.09 with a negative -$3.16 or -2.32% aftermarket indication

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$14.63 to $155.39 after Tuesday’s $170.02, Monday’s $175.69, Friday’s $172.38 and last Thursday’s $166.75 with a negative -$0.59 or -0.38% aftermarket indication;

Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed down -$2.32 to $27.79 after Tuesday’s $30.11, Monday’s $31.30, Friday’s $31.27 and last Thursday’s $31.62 with a negative -$0.72 or -2.59% aftermarket indication

Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) closed up +$3.31 to $50.80 after Tuesday’s $47.49, Monday’s $48.34, Friday’s $47.65 and last Thursday’s $47.89, with a negative -$1.55 or-3.05% aftermarket indication;

Precigen (PGEN) closed up +$1.14 to $9.28 after Tuesday’s $8.14, Monday’s $8.90, Friday’s $9.21 and last Thursday’s $9.14 with a negative -0.20 or -2.16% aftermarket indication;

The BOTTOM LINE: As I have stated, “Signs of a bubble continues to concern (haunt is a better word) me, record highs declining quickly with come backs in a variety of equities.”

There is STILL a short-term tone in the sector – “our’ universe of RegMed, stem, cell and gene therapy equities.

Again, “forewarned … earnings LPS (los-per-share) season is coming quickly – my advice, trim and skim!”

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.