February 3, 2021 5:27pm
How does one measure the up, downs and round-abouts of the sector by seeing how factors of volume, share pricing and expectations and probabilities are interpreted
Pre-open indication results: 9 HITs and 3 MISS
Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investor profiting! Numbers based facts speak better then opinion as I see answers in numbers to speak truth over opinion!
Keeping “tabs” on sector movements, are you ready - sector earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season is about to begin?
The Dow closed UP +36.12 points (+0.12%); the S&P closed UP +3.36 points (+0.10%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -2.23 points (-0.02%)
Henry’omics:
Indexes fluctuated and closed slightly up as the Nasdaq dipped on Wednesday, rising a third straight session as investors digested a wave of corporate earnings.
From the title: Bayesian probability is an interpretation of the concept of probability, in which, instead of frequency or propensity of some phenomenon, probability is interpreted as reasonable expectation representing a state of knowledge or as quantification of a personal belief.
Let’s review, the “color” that I spoke about in reference to the healthcare sector: Amgen (AMGN) share pricing fell -$8.10 or -3.37% to $232.39 after the biotech firm issued earnings’ weaker-than-expected full year outlook, noting that the pandemic would continue to hurt sales.
Data Docket: private firms added 174,000 jobs in January, above the 50,000 Dow Jones estimate, according to a report Wednesday from payroll processing firm ADP.
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “positive market sentiment continues until profiteering sets-in and shrivels” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11752
Pre-open indication results: 9 HITs < SELL - Pluristem (PSTI -$0.13), AxoGen (AXGN -+$0.13 - profiting), Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.75 - profiting), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.02 - profiting), Vericel (VCEL -$0.25), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.51); BUY - Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.39); BUY from SELL: bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.04); Maintaining BUY - Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.48) and 3 MISS < Maintaining SELL: Biostage (BSTG +$0.07 with 129 shares traded);BUY - Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.08), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.65)
Sentiment and COVID-19 infections:
- Under the surface there is a RegMed/stem/cell and gene therapy sector maintaining some momentum.
Infection cases <Million>: never to forget …
- Wednesday 26.43 M cases,
- Wednesday’s death rate totaled 447,077 <Johns Hopkins University>
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …
- Wednesday opened positive at 23/9 and 3 flats, strayed negative at the mid-day to 15/18 and 2 flats, closing barely positive at 17/16, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
- Tuesday opened positive at 21/12 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day to 22/10 and 3 flats, closing positive at 25/7, 2 flat and 1 acquired;
- Monday opened positive at 27/7 and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day to 27/7 and 1 flat, closing positive at 22/11, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
Key metrics:
- Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 17-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 5 of 16-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 17-upside were +0.03% (IONS) to +9.73% (AGTC) while the 16-downside ranges from -0.53% (ADVM) to -20.60% (CLLS);
There are clear winners — and losers — heading into the second month and Q1 of 2021.
Jumping with share pricing momentum:
- ReNeuron (RENE.L), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) to name 5 of the 17 inclining of the 35 covered
Hammered in today’s market:
- Cellectis SA (CLLS), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Editas Therapeutics (EDIT), Ultragenyx (RARE) to name 5 of the 16 declining of the 35 covered
Wednesday’s (10 of 17) incliners:
- ReNeuron (RENE.L +$1.00);
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.75 after Tuesday’s +$4.83 and Monday’s +$2.53);
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.48);
- Applied Genetics Technologies (AGTC +$0.39);
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.30);
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.28);
- Athersys (ATHX +$0.15);
- Caladrius BioSciences (CLBS +$0.13 after Tuesday’s -$0.04 and Monday’s -$0.04);
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.13);
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.11 after Tuesday’s -$0.02 after Monday’s -$0.42);
Wednesday’s (10 of 16) decliners:
- Cellectis SA (CLLS -$5.95);
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$3.92 after Tuesday’s +$6.37 and Monday’s +$1.53);
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.65 after Tuesday’s +$2.47 and Monday’s -$0.02);
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$3.51 after Tuesday’s +$2.78 and Monday’s +$1.54);
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$2.91 after Tuesday’s +$7.52 and Monday’s +$7.04);
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.80 after Tuesday’s +$4.80 and Monday’s -$1.23);
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.86 after Tuesday’s -$3.32 and Monday’s +$2.01);
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.74 after Tuesday’s +$1.57 and Monday’s +$1.67);
- uniQure NV (QURE -$0.69);
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.51);
Closing 1 – Precigen (PGEN) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)
Stats:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Wednesday, the IBB closed down -0.38% and XBI closed down -1.33%
- Tuesday, the IBB closed up +1.11% and XBI closed up +2.27%
- Monday, the IBB closed up +1.28% and XBI closed up +4.41%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was down -2.65 points or -10.37% at 22.91
- Tuesday was up -4.68 points or -15.48% at 25.56
- Monday was down -2.85 points or -8.61% at 30.24
Upside volume:
- Wednesday: 1 out of the 17-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Tuesday: 10 out of the 25-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday: 2 out of the 22-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Downside volume:
- Wednesday: 5 out of the 16-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Tuesday: 2 out of the 7-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday: 2 out of the 11-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing
- Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 17-upside were +0.03% (IONS) to +9.73% (AGTC) while the 16-downside ranges from -0.53% (ADVM) to -20.60% (CLLS);
- Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 25-upside were +0.08% (GBT) to +9.93% (NTLA) while the 7-downside ranges from -0.47% (BLCM) to-12.47% (PSTI);
- Monday’s percentage (%) of the22 -upside were +0.16% (ADVM) to +26.10% (ATHX) while the 11-downside ranges from -0.01% (CRSP) to -9.03% (BLCM);
February, the 2nd month of Q1 … a visual review identifies the range of sector volatility
Wednesday closed positive with 17 advancers, 16 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Tuesday closed positive with 25 advancers, 7 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired
Monday (2/1) closed positive with 22 advancers, 11 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
The Bottom Line: As new highs evolve, so won’t the declines as electronic trading reap profits before earnings’ season appears – keep watching the DECLING advance/decline (A/D) lines.
Let’s NOT forget, it is a new tax year thus, a cut back of some (I say many) gains in the sector before the release of Q4 and FY20 “earnings” i.e., LPS (loss-per-share)!
Forewarned … earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season is coming quickly – my advice, trim and skim!!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
