February 5, 2021 5:42pm

Covid-19’s grip disappoints jobs data but, doesn’t stymie the sectors upside as momentum continues to thrive

Pre-open indication results: 6 HITs and 3 MISS

Week in review …

Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investor profiting! Numbers based facts speak better then opinion as I see answers in numbers to speak truth over opinion!

More than a snapshot of today’s sector movements, are you ready - sector earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season is about to begin? 


The Dow closed UP +92.38 points (+0.30%); the S&P closed UP +15.09 points (+0.39%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +78.65 points (+0.57%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes climbed on Friday, closing their best week since November, after a disappointing January jobs report that would increase the likelihood of further stimulus.

The weekly performance: Dow has gained 3.9%, while the S&P 500 popped +4.7% and the Nasdaq inclined + 6%.

Sector volume is very low, while the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has fallen more than 12 points this week to around 21 Friday.

  • Some believe if the fear gauge breaks below 21, it could send a big “risk on” signal as the level would trigger buying from algorithmic traders and other big players.

To note, the IBB and XBI has been up four (4) of five (5) sessions.

For color, an interesting measurement stick:

  • Biogen (BIIB) stock was down again -0.86% or -$2.30, after fell well short of expectation in yesterday’s earnings release. BIIB said its revenue of between $10.45 billion and $10.75 billion in 2021, and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of between $17 and $18.50. Analysts had expected revenue of $11.3 billion, and EPS of $25.02, according to FactSet.

Another biotech company went public:

  • Outlook Therapeutics Inc (OTLK) completed a million public common stock offering that included participation by its largest stockholder and strategic partner, BioLexis, as well as the partial exercise of the underwriter's overallotment option for an additional $3.6 million, which is expected to close today. OTLK also closed the previously announced concurrent private placement of common stock to Syntone Ventures, its partner in China, for additional gross proceeds of $3 million. Proceeds will provide for the FDA marketing application's expected filing for ONS-5010 / LYTENAVA (bevacizumab-vikg) for wet age-related macular degeneration (wet AMD). Outlook plans to file by the end of 2021.
  • Revolution Medicines Inc (RVMD) had priced its upsized underwritten public offering of around 5.8 million common shares at $45 per share, equivalent to gross proceeds of $260.9 million. Previously, the company had offered to sell 4 million shares. Underwriters have an option to purchase up to an additional 869.5 thousand shares, compared to 600 thousand shares announced earlier. RVMD expects the offering to close on February 8.

 

Data Docket: January’s jobs report shows that Covid-19’s grip on the economy is relentless, but there are signs that pent-up demand and hiring could improve as the vaccine rollout gains momentum; unfortunately, just 49,000 jobs were created, showing that the economy is in need of a lift from fiscal stimulus.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: budget “reconciliation” allows democrats to pass stimulus/fiscal aid/rescue package resolution potentially not needing republican help” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11756

 

Pre-open indication results:  6 HITs < SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.06 with 1,475 shares traded); BUY: Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.78), Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.75), Pluristem (PSTI +$0.32), Precigen (PGEN +$0.44), Ultragenyx (RARE +$7.22) and 3 MISS < Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.83), Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.39), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$7.20)>

 

Sentiment and COVID-19 infections:

  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has asked the FDA to approve its single-shot Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use in the U.S. If approved, J&J’s shot would be the 3rd vaccine available for emergency use in the U.S., joining those developed by Pfizer-BioNTech (BNTX)and Moderna (MRNA). J&J has said its vaccine was 66% effective overall in protecting against COVID-19. The FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee will meet on Feb. 26 to discuss the application, and authorization could happen as early as this month.

Infection cases <Million>: never to forget …

  • Friday 26.68 M cases,
  • Friday’s death rate totaled 455,916<Johns Hopkins University>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Friday opened positive at 20/13 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day to 25/9 and 1 acquired, closing positive at 28/6 and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened positive at 24/9 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day to 27/7 and 1 acquired, closing positive at 27/7 and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened positive at 23/9 and 3 flats, strayed negative at the mid-day to 15/18 and 2 flats, closing barely positive at 17/16, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened positive at 21/12 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day to 22/10 and 3 flats, closing positive at 25/7, 2 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened positive at 27/7 and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day to 27/7 and 1 flat, closing positive at 22/11, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 28-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 3 of 6-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 28-upside were +0.01% (SLDB) to +17.37% (AGTC) while the 6-downside ranges from -0.27% (VYGR) to -10.53% (BCLI);

 

There are clear winners — and losers — heading into the second month and Q1 of 2021.

All-time highs:

  • The XBI reached an all-time high of 166.16

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx (RARE), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Regenxbio (RGNX) to name 5 of the 28 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI), uniQure NV (QURE), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY), Biostage (BSTG), Athersys (ATHX), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) to name 6 of the 6 declining of the 35 covered

 

Friday’s (10 of 28) incliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$10.50 after Thursday’s -$5.00 and Wednesday’s +$1.00);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$7.22 after Thursday’s +$4.76, Wednesday’s -$2.91, Tuesday’s +$7.52 and Monday’s +$7.04);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$7.20 after Thursday’s +$6.66, Wednesday’s -$2.80, Tuesday’s +$4.80 and Monday’s -$1.23);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$2.57 after Thursday’s +$4.38, Wednesday’s +$0.75, Tuesday’s +$4.83 and Monday’s +$2.53);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.48 after Thursday’s -$0.38);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.46 after Thursday’s +$1.15, Wednesday’s -$3.92, Tuesday’s +$6.37 and Monday’s +$1.53);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.26);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.25 after Thursday’s -$0.32, Wednesday’s -$0.74, Tuesday’s +$1.57 and Monday’s +$1.67);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.02 after Thursday’s +$3.29, Wednesday’s -$3.65, Tuesday’s +$2.47 and Monday’s -$0.02);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.88 after Thursday’s +$1.02, Wednesday’s -$3.51, Tuesday’s +$2.78 and Monday’s +$1.54);

Friday’s (6 of 6) decliners:

  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.83 after Thursday’s +$1.71 and Wednesday’s +$0.30);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.17);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.10);
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.06);
  • Athersys (ATHX -$0.02);
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.02 after Thursday’s -$0.02 and Wednesday’s -$0.51);

Closing 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed up +1.76% and XBI closed up +2.46%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +1.37% and XBI closed up +1.06%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -0.38% and XBI closed down -1.33%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +1.11% and XBI closed up +2.27%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +1.28% and XBI closed up +4.41%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.90 points or -4.13% at 20.97
  • Thursday was down -1.14 points or -4.98% at 21.77
  • Wednesday was down -2.65 points or -10.37% at 22.91
  • Tuesday was down -4.68 points or -15.48% at 25.56
  • Monday was down -2.85 points or -8.61% at 30.24

Upside volume: low

  • Friday: 5 out of the 28-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 6 out of the 27-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 1 out of the 17-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 10 out of the 25-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 22-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume: low

  • Friday: 3 out of the 6-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 0 out of the 7-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 5 out of the 16-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 2 out of the 7-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 11-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 28-upside were +0.01% (SLDB) to +17.37% (AGTC) while the 6-downside ranges from -0.27% (VYGR) to -10.53% (BCLI);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 27-upside were +0.12% (GBT) to +27.71% (BCLI) while the 7-downside ranges from -0.27% (VYGR) to -4.67% (RENE.L);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 17-upside were +0.03% (IONS) to +9.73% (AGTC) while the 16-downside ranges from -0.53% (ADVM) to -20.60% (CLLS);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 25-upside were +0.08% (GBT) to +9.93% (NTLA) while the 7-downside ranges from -0.47% (BLCM) to-12.47% (PSTI);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the22 -upside were +0.16% (ADVM) to +26.10% (ATHX) while the 11-downside ranges from -0.01% (CRSP) to -9.03% (BLCM);

 

February, the 2nd month of Q1 … a visual review identifies the range of sector volatility

Friday closed positive with 28 advancers, 6 decliners and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 27 advancers, 7 decliners and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed positive with 17 advancers, 16 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 25 advancers, 7 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Monday (2/1) closed positive with 22 advancers, 11 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

 

The Bottom Line: Warning: As new highs evolve, so won’t the declines as electronic trading reap profits before earnings’ season appears – keep watching the advance/decline (A/D) lines.

They broke the “line” today by advancing, my miss but, I won’t back down from one fundamental factor to watch.

Let’s NOT forget, it is a new tax year thus, a cut back of some (I say many) gains in the sector before the release of Q4 and FY20 “earnings” i.e., LPS (loss-per-share)!

Forewarned … earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season is coming quickly – my advice, trim and skim!!

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.