February 9, 2021 5:36pm

The upside slid as I have been warning, stop chewing on the bubble’s “gum”

Pre-open indication results: 11 HITs and 2 MISS

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More than a snapshot of today’s sector movements 

The Dow closed DOWN -9.93 points (-0.03%); the S&P closed DOWN -4.36 points (-0.11%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +20.06 points (+0.14%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes fluctuated ending mixed on Tuesday as the market’s upside got the hook in the limp session.

Hope and optimism are not fundamental factors … as “expectations are just so high that you wonder when we get there, what’s next.”

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “a correction could be catching-up to us. The question was always, low long would the trend stay our friend; as I stated yesterday, new highs say bye to me in some sector equities.”  … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11761

 

Pre-open indication results:  10 HITs < SELL into Strength: Athersys (ATHX -$0.015), BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.44), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.21 - profit), Verastem (VSTM +$0.04 - profit), bluebird bio (BLUE -$1.35), Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.57), Ionis Therapeutics (IONS -$0.40), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$3.18), Vericel (VCEL -$0.96), BUY: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.50), and 4 MISS < SELL: Biostage (BSTG +$0.01 with 525 shares traded), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.59), Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.07), uniQure NV (QURE -$0.35) >

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Tuesday opened negative at 14/20 and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day to 15/18, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 11/23 and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened positive at 25/8 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day to 25/8 and 2 flats, closing positive at 26/7, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 11-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 7 of 23-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 11-upside were +0.19% (MDXG) to +4.41% (BLCM) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.54% (ATHX) to -6.48% (AGTC);

 

There are clear winners — and losers — heading into the second month and Q1 of 2021.

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx (RARE), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), AxoGen (AXGN), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM), to name 5 of the 11 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Editas Medicine (EDIT), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) to name 5 of the 23 declining of the 35 covered

 

Tuesday’s (11 of 11) incliners:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.50 after Monday’s +$0.04);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.89 after Monday’s +$3.62);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.38 after Monday’s +$2.58);
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.32 after Monday’s -$0.23);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.21);
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.15);
  • Caladrius Bioscience (CLBS +$0.07 after Monday’s -$0.09);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.07);
  • Verastem (VSTM +$0.04);
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.02);
  • Biostage (BSTG +$0.01 after Monday's -$0.19);

Tuesday’s (10 of 23) decliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$5.00 after Monday’s flat);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$3.18 after Monday’s +$3.31);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$3.02 after Monday’s +$5.69);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.68 after Monday’s -$0.42);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.59 after Monday’s -$0.07);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.52 after Monday’s +$2.42);
  • bluebird bio -$1.35 after Monday’s +$0.19);
  • Vericel (-$0.96 after Monday’s +$2.48);
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.73 after Monday’s -$0.68);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.67 after Monday’s +$4.71);

Closing 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Sentiment and COVID-19 infections:

  • Sentiment is affected by Investors could be taking some chips off the table following a strong rally boosted by optimism for a smooth reopening amid the COVID-19 vaccine rollout.

Infection cases <Million>: never to forget …

  • Tuesday 27.10 M cases,
  • Tuesday’s death rate totaled 465,186<Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.54% and XBI closed down -1.22%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +2.10% and XBI closed up +4.32%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +0.39 points or +1.84% at 21.63
  • Monday was up +0.37 points or +1.77% at 21.24

Upside volume: low

  • Tuesday: 1 out of the 11-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 9 out of the 26-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume: low

  • Tuesday: 7 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 7-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: % and pricing drop

  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 11-upside were +0.19% (MDXG) to +4.41% (BLCM) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.54% (ATHX) to -6.48% (AGTC);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 26-upside were +0.02% (ALNY) to +14.16% (PSTI) while the 7-downside ranges from -0.14% (GBT) to -9.50% (BSTG);

 

February, the 2nd month of Q1 … a visual review identifies the range of sector volatility

Tuesday closed negative with 11 advancers, 23 decliners and 1 acquired

Monday (2/8) closed positive with 27 advancers, 7 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Friday closed positive with 28 advancers, 6 decliners and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 27 advancers, 7 decliners and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed positive with 17 advancers, 16 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 25 advancers, 7 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Monday (2/1) closed positive with 22 advancers, 11 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

 

The Bottom Line: MY warning became self-evident: As new highs evolve, so won’t the declines as electronic trading reap profits before earnings’ season appears – keep watching the advance/decline (A/D) lines.

Many talk of horizons; its’s Tuesday, my horizon is Friday’s close …

Let’s NOT forget, it is a new tax year thus, a cut back of some (I say many) gains in the sector before the release of Q4 and FY20 “earnings” i.e., LPS (loss-per-share)!

Forewarned … earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season is coming quickly – my advice, trim and skim!!

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.