February 11, 2021 5:06pm

As LPS (loss-per-share) are enhancing velocity of instability in the sector

Pre-open indication results: 4 HITs and 5 MISS

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More than a snapshot of today’s sector movements

 

The Dow closed DOWN -7.10 points (-0.02%); the S&P closed UP +6.50 points (+0.17%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +53.24 points (+0.38%)

 

Henry’omics:

The Dow closed down leaving the Nasdaq and S&P as the index anchors while investors processed a worse-than-expected reading of weekly jobless claims.

 

Data Docket: new claims for jobless benefits came in at 793,000 last week, worse than an estimate of 760,000.

  • The real issue … “Nearly 10.6 million Americans will lose unemployment benefits in April without more relief; unless a fiscal aid/stimulus is signed and sealed by elected politicians.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “swinging between gains and losses with bounce-backs being ready to happen even though confidence is shaky” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11765     

 

Pre-open indication results:  4 HITs < BUY:  Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.75), AxoGen (AXGN +$0.08), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.66), Mesoblast (MESO +$1.04), and 5 MISS < Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.32), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.15), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.94), Pluristem (PSTI -$0.16); SELL: Biostage (BSTG +$0.30 with 809 shares traded)>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Thursday opened positive at 21/13 and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day to 14/21, 2 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 13/21 and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened positive at 30/4 and 1 flat, quickly dropped negative 15 minutes later to 12/21 and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 14/18, 2 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 8/25, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 14/20 and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day to 15/18, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 11/23 and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened positive at 25/8 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day to 25/8 and 2 flats, closing positive at 26/7, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 13-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 4 of 21-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 13-upside were +0.41% (AXGN) to +16.67% (CLBS) while the 21-downside ranges from -0.24% (IONS) to -3.68% (ATHX);

 

There are clear winners — and losers — heading into the second month and Q1 of 2021.

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL), Mesoblast (MESO), Cellectis SA (CLLS) to name 5 of the 13 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE), Editas Medicine (EDIT), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) to name 5 of the 21 declining of the 35 covered

 

Thursday’s (13 of 13) incliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$6.00 after Wednesday’s +$2.50, Tuesday’s -$5.00 and Monday’s flat);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.27 after Wednesday’s -$0.82, Tuesday’s +$0.38 and Monday’s +$2.58);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.22 after Wednesday’s -$3.49, Tuesday’s +$2.50 and Monday’s +$0.04);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.04);
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$1.04);
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.75 after Wednesday’s +$0.24);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.66 after Wednesday’s +$0.31 and Tuesday’s +$0.21);
  • Cellectis SA (+$0.61 after Wednesday’s -$1.21);
  • Caladrius Bioscience (CLBS +$0.39 after Wednesday’s +$0.04, Tuesday’s +$0.07 and Monday’s -$0.09);
  • Biostage (BSTG +$0.30 with 809 shares traded);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.17);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.11);
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.08 after Wednesday’s -$0.61, Tuesday’s +$0.32 and Monday’s -$0.23);

Thursday’s (10 of 21) decliners:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$4.44 – post earnings’ release)
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.94 after Wednesday’s -$7.62, Tuesday’s -$3.02 and Monday’s +$5.69);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.17 after Wednesday’s -$3.16, Tuesday’s -$0.67 after Monday’s +$4.71):
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.15 after Wednesday’s -$7.35, Tuesday’s -$1.68 and Monday’s -$0.42);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.04 after Wednesday’s -$0.57, Tuesday’s -$1.59 and Monday’s -$0.07);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.81 after Wednesday’s -$2.01, Tuesday’s -$3.18 and Monday’s +$3.31);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.75);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.62);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.32);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.30 after Wednesday’s +$0.40, Tuesday’s -$1.52 and Monday’s +$2.42);

Closing 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Sentiment and COVID-19 infections:

  • A whole lot of optimism has pushed markets forward; the question is … as the sector melts-up followed by slips down as expectation seems on-hold.

Infection cases <Million>: never to forget …

  • Thursday 27.28 M cases,
  • Thursday’s death rate totaled 471,764<Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -0.31% and XBI closed down -1.30%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -0.82% and XBI closed down -2.24%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.54% and XBI closed down -1.22%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +2.10% and XBI closed up +4.32%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.74 points or -3.37% at 21.25
  • Wednesday was up +0.36 points or +1.66% at 21.99
  • Tuesday was up +0.39 points or +1.84% at 21.63
  • Monday was up +0.37 points or +1.77% at 21.24

Upside volume: low

  • Thursday: 5 out of the 13-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 5 out of the 8-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 1 out of the 11-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 9 out of the 26-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume: low

  • Thursday: 4 out of the 21-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 8 out of the 25-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 7 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 7-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: % and pricing drop

  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 13-upside were +0.41% (AXGN) to +16.67% (CLBS) while the 21-downside ranges from -0.24% (IONS) to -3.68% (ATHX);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 8-upside were +0.13% () to +6.69% (PSTI) while the 25-downside ranges from -0.04% (BLUE) to -11.42% (EDIT);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 11-upside were +0.19% (MDXG) to +4.41% (BLCM) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.54% (ATHX) to -6.48% (AGTC);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 26-upside were +0.02% (ALNY) to +14.16% (PSTI) while the 7-downside ranges from -0.14% (GBT) to -9.50% (BSTG);

 

February, the 2nd month of Q1 … a visual review identifies the range of sector volatility

Thursday closed positive with 13 advancers, 21 decliners and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 8 advancers, 25 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 11 advancers, 23 decliners and 1 acquired

Monday (2/8) closed positive with 27 advancers, 7 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Friday closed positive with 28 advancers, 6 decliners and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 27 advancers, 7 decliners and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed positive with 17 advancers, 16 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 25 advancers, 7 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Monday (2/1) closed positive with 22 advancers, 11 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

 

The Bottom Line: Staying with the theme: “A change in sector leadership is underway with the focus on the earnings’ LPS (loss-per-share) release of Q4 and FY20 results.”

MY warning became self-evident: as new highs evolve, so won’t the declines as electronic trading reap profits before earnings’ season appears – keep watching the advance/decline (A/D) lines.

Many talk of horizons; its’s Tuesday, my horizon is Friday’s close …

Let’s NOT forget, it is a new tax year thus, a cut back of some (I say many) gains in the sector before the release of Q4 and FY20 “earnings” i.e., LPS (loss-per-share)!

Forewarned … earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season is coming quickly – my advice, trim and skim!!

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.