February 12, 2021 5:15pm

Q4 and FY20 earnings are coming-in below expectations so far as optimism is stroked by coming, coming, almost near fiscal aid/stimulus

Pre-open indication results: 6 HITs and 1 MISS

The week in review …

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More than a snapshot of today’s sector movements 

The Dow closed UP +27.76 points (+0.09%); the S&P closed UP +18.45 points (+0.47%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +69.70 points (+0.50%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes fizzled and flourished at the close on Friday, as the major averages stayed on track to post a positive week.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “wrapping-up the week” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11767

Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS) Registered Direct offering of 24.9 M shares and warrants … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11768

 

Pre-open indication results:  6 HITs < SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.00 with 88 shares traded); BUY:  Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.28), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.96), Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.08), AxoGen (AXGN -$0.30), Mesoblast (MESO -$0.35) and 1 MISS < Ultragenyx (RARE -$12.52)

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Friday opened positive at 21/12 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day to 17/16, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 14/19, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened positive at 21/13 and 1 flat, strayed negative at the mid-day to 14/21, 2 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 13/21 and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened positive at 30/4 and 1 flat, quickly dropped negative 15 minutes later to 12/21 and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 14/18, 2 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 8/25, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 14/20 and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day to 15/18, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 11/23 and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened positive at 25/8 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day to 25/8 and 2 flats, closing positive at 26/7, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 14-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 4 of 19-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 14-upside were +0.13% (KDNY) to +11.78% (BLCM) while the 19-downside ranges from -0.02% (BLUE) to -14.65% (CLBS);

 

There are clear winners — and losers — heading into the second month and Q1 of 2021.

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Vericel (VCEL) to name 5 of the 14 declining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), uniQure NV (QURE), Intellia therapeutics (NTLA) to name 5 of the 19 declining of the 35 covered

 

Friday’s (10 of 14) incliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$12.00 after Thursday’s +$6.00, Wednesday’s +$2.50, Tuesday’s -$5.00 and Monday’s flat);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.89 after Thursday’s +$1.27, Wednesday’s -$0.82, Tuesday’s +$0.38 and Monday’s +$2.58);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$2.15 after Thursday’s -$0.62);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.00 after Thursday’s -$1.15, Wednesday’s -$7.35, Tuesday’s -$1.68 and Monday’s -$0.42);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.45 after Thursday’s +$1.04);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.96 after Thursday’s -$1.04, Wednesday’s -$0.57, Tuesday’s -$1.59 and Monday’s -$0.07);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.77 after Thursday’s -$1.94, Wednesday’s -$7.62, Tuesday’s -$3.02 and Monday’s +$5.69);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.70 after Thursday’s +$0.66, Wednesday’s +$0.31 and Tuesday’s +$0.21);
  • Cellectis SA (+$0.29 after Thursday’s +$0.61 and Wednesday’s -$1.21);
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.28 after Thursday’s +$0.75 and Wednesday’s +$0.24);

Friday’s (10 of 19) decliners:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$12.52 after Thursday’s -$4.44 – post earnings’ release)
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$7.46 after Thursday’s +$1.22, Wednesday’s -$3.49, Tuesday’s +$2.50 and Monday’s +$0.04);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.89);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.75 after Thursday’s +0.17);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.64 after Thursday’s -$1.17, Wednesday’s -$3.16, Tuesday’s -$0.67 after Monday’s +$4.71):
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.45 after Thursday’s +$0.11);
  • Caladrius Bioscience (CLBS -$4.00 after Thursday’s +$0.39, Wednesday’s +$0.04, Tuesday’s +$0.07 and Monday’s -$0.09);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.37 after Thursday’s -$0.30, Wednesday’s +$0.40, Tuesday’s -$1.52 and Monday’s +$2.42);
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.35 after Thursday’s +$1.04);
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.30 after Thursday’s +$0.08, Wednesday’s -$0.61, Tuesday’s +$0.32 and Monday’s -$0.23);

Closing 1 – Biostage (BSTG) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Sentiment and COVID-19 infections:

  • Confusion surrounds the vaccination processes set forth by the federal government and some states as how they time inoculations?

Infection cases <Million>: never to forget …

  • Friday 27.39 M cases,
  • Friday’s death rate totaled 475,776<Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed up +0.58% and XBI closed down -0.91%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -0.31% and XBI closed down -1.30%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -0.82% and XBI closed down -2.24%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.54% and XBI closed down -1.22%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +2.10% and XBI closed up +4.32%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -1.28 points or -6.02% at 19.97
  • Thursday was down -0.74 points or -3.37% at 21.25
  • Wednesday was up +0.36 points or +1.66% at 21.99
  • Tuesday was up +0.39 points or +1.84% at 21.63
  • Monday was up +0.37 points or +1.77% at 21.24

Upside volume: low

  • Friday: 5 out of the 14-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 5 out of the 13-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 5 out of the 8-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 1 out of the 11-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 9 out of the 26-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume: low

  • Friday: 4 out of the 19-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 4 out of the 21-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 8 out of the 25-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 7 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 7-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: % and pricing drop

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 14-upside were +0.13% (KDNY) to +11.78% (BLCM) while the 19-downside ranges from -0.02% (BLUE) to -14.65% (CLBS);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 13-upside were +0.41% (AXGN) to +16.67% (CLBS) while the 21-downside ranges from -0.24% (IONS) to -3.68% (ATHX);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 8-upside were +0.13% () to +6.69% (PSTI) while the 25-downside ranges from -0.04% (BLUE) to -11.42% (EDIT);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 11-upside were +0.19% (MDXG) to +4.41% (BLCM) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.54% (ATHX) to -6.48% (AGTC);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 26-upside were +0.02% (ALNY) to +14.16% (PSTI) while the 7-downside ranges from -0.14% (GBT) to -9.50% (BSTG);

 

February, the 2nd month of Q1 … a visual review identifies the range of sector volatility

Friday closed negative with 14 advancers, 19 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 13 advancers, 21 decliners and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 8 advancers, 25 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 11 advancers, 23 decliners and 1 acquired

Monday (2/8) closed positive with 27 advancers, 7 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Friday closed positive with 28 advancers, 6 decliners and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 27 advancers, 7 decliners and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed positive with 17 advancers, 16 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 25 advancers, 7 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Monday (2/1) closed positive with 22 advancers, 11 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

 

The Bottom Line: the week, it’s over … my horizon was Friday’s close …

As I had stated three (3) time this week, it was:

  • Monday: Reiterating, “There is STILL a short-term tone in the sector – “our’ universe of RegMed, stem, cell and gene therapy equities.”
  • Tuesday: “There is STILL a short-term tone in the sector – “our’ universe of RegMed, stem, cell and gene therapy equities.”
  • Wednesday: “forewarned … earnings LPS (los-per-share) season is coming quickly – my advice, trim and skim!”
  • Thursday: “It’s all about, the “bouncing ball” of market and sector momentum”
  • And today, Friday: “As I have also stated, “MY warning became self-evident: as new highs evolve, so won’t the declines as electronic trading reap profits before earnings’ season appears – keep watching the advance/decline (A/D) lines.”

Forewarned … earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season is coming quickly – my advice, trim and skim!!

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.