February 19, 2021 5:18pm
Plenty of upside headed my way as MY expectancy has briefly returned to the sector
Pre-open indication results: 7 HITs and 4 MISS
The week in review … numbers speak and percentages screech
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The Dow closed barely UP + 0.98 points (+0.00%); the S&P closed DOWN -7.26 points (-0.19%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +9.11 points (+0.07%)
Henry’omics - more than a snapshot of today’s sector movements:
Indexes traded barely higher <after fluctuating> for most of the morning, a combination of rising interest rates and profit taking in some companies dampening gains after the noon timeframe.
The stock market’s rally to records has stalled a bit this week as fears of rising rates and higher inflation crept in. The S&P 500 fell for a third straight day on Thursday after a worse-than-expected reading on jobless claims. <CNBC>
… With the Russell 2000 up 2% as small-cap stocks, which also tend to track the ups and downs of the broader economy, clinched solid gains.
Data Docket: Closed sales of existing homes in January increased 0.6% compared with December, according to the National Association of Realtors.
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “follow the potential of bouncing share pricing and a few more falling knives or not. The question is whether the market influences the sector to get over itself as earnings’ season heats-up.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11776
Pre-open indication results: 7 HITs < SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.11 with 23 shares traded); Falling Knives: Global Blood therapeutics (GBT -$0.43), Mesoblast (MESO -$0.02), Verastem Oncology (VSTM -$0.01), Bouncer BUYs: Cellectis SA (CLLS +$1.07), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$5.76), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.16) and 4 MISS < Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$3.86), Vericel (VCEL +$0.44), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.38), blue bird bio (BLUE -$0.27)>
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions
- Friday opened positive at 21/12 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day to 26/7 and 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing positive at 24/9, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
- Thursday opened negative at 3/30 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day to 3/31 and 1 acquired, closing negative at 2/32 and 1 acquired;
- Wednesday opened negative at 7/26 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day to 5/28 and 2 flats, closing negative at 11/23 and 1 acquired;
- Tuesday opened negative at 15/18 and 2 flats, strayed barely positive at the mid-day to 17/16 and 2 flats, closing negative at 14/20 and 1 acquired;
- Monday was a market holiday
There are clear winners — and losers — heading into the second month and Q1 of 2021.
Jumping with share pricing momentum:
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Ultragenyx (RARE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), ReNeuron (RENE) to name 5 of the 24 inclining of the 35 covered
Hammered in today’s market:
- Global Blood therapeutics (GBT), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC), bluebird bio (BLUE), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) to name 5 of the 9 declining of the 35 covered
Key metrics:
- Sector volume was LOW with 4 of the 24-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 2 of 9-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Friday’s percentage (%) of the 24-upside were +0.08% (ADVM) to +8.65% (NTLA) while the 9-downside ranges from -0.19% (MESO) to -6.28% (BLCM);
Friday’s (10 of 24) incliners, keep your eyes on bounce-back share pricings:
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$8.08 after Thursday’s -$1.12 and Wednesday’s +$1.78);
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$5.76 after Thursday’s -$2.19 and Wednesday’s +$0.65);
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$5.14);
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.83 after Thursday’s -$6.30, Wednesday’s +$2.72 and Tuesday’s -$4.11);
- ReNeuron (RENE.L +$4.50 after Thursday’s -$7.50, Wednesday’s -$1.53 and Tuesday’s +$1.50);
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$3.86 after Thursday’s -$4.01, Wednesday’s -$1.90 and Tuesday’s -$2.05);
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.32 after Thursday’s -$3.37, Wednesday’s -$5.29 and Tuesday’s -$5.73);
- uniQure NV (QURE +$1.52);
- Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.13 after Thursday’s -$1.15, Wednesday’s +$0.06 and Tuesday’s -$1.49);
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$1.07 after Thursday’s -$1.49, Wednesday’s -$1.82 and Tuesday’s +$0.16);
Friday’s (9 of 9) decliners:
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.43);
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM);
- Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.28);
- bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.27);
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.21);
- MiMedx (MDXG -$0.11 after Thursday’s +$0.12);
- Athersys (ATHX -$0.02);
- Mesoblast (MESO -$0.02);
- Verastem Oncology (VSTM -$0.01);
Closing 1 – Biostage (BSTG) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)
Sentiment and COVID-19 infections:
- New Covid-19 cases and deaths have trended lower for over a month in the United States.
Infection cases <Million>: never to forget …
- Friday 27.89 M cases,
- Friday’s death rate totaled 493,176 <Johns Hopkins University>
Stats:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Friday, the IBB closed up +0.98% and XBI closed up +1.62%
- Thursday, the IBB closed down -1.69% and XBI closed down -2.60%
- Wednesday, the IBB closed up +0.31% and XBI closed up +0.35%
- Tuesday, the IBB closed down -2.17% and XBI closed down -2.53%
- Monday was market holiday
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Friday was down -0.44 points or -1.96% at 22.05
- Thursday was up +0.99 points or +4.60% at 22.49
- Wednesday was up +0.04 points or +0.19% at 21.50
- Tuesday was up +1.49 points or +4.76% at 21.46
- Monday was market holiday
Upside volume: low
- Friday: 4 out of the 24-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Thursday: 1 out of the 2-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Wednesday: 3 out of the 11-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Tuesday: 6 out of the 14-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday was a market holiday
Downside volume: low
- Friday: 2 out of the 9-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Thursday: 7 out of the 32-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Wednesday: 11 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Tuesday: 4 out of the 20-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday was a market holiday
Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: % and pricing drop
- Friday’s percentage (%) of the 24-upside were +0.08% (ADVM) to +8.65% (NTLA) while the 9-downside ranges from -0.19% (MESO) to -6.28% (BLCM);
- Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 2-upside were +1.24% (MDXG) to +1.49% (AXGN) while the 32-downside ranges from -0.11% (RARE) to -11.69% (FIXX);
- Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 11-upside were +0.11% (EDIT) to +13.74% (VSTM) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.04% (VCEL) to -6.66% (CLLS);
- Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 14-upside were +0.07% (ADVM) to +30.58% (AGTC) while the 20-downside ranges from -0.13% (PSTI) to -37.85% (BLUE);
- Monday was a market holiday
February, the 2nd month of Q1 … a visual review identifies the range of sector volatility
Friday closed positive with 24 advancers, 9 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Thursday closed negative with 2 advancers, 32 decliners and 1 acquired
Wednesday closed negative with 11 advancers, 23 decliners and 1 acquired
Tuesday closed negative with 14 advancers, 20 decliners and 1 acquired
Monday (2/15) was a market holiday
Friday closed negative with 14 advancers, 19 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Thursday closed positive with 13 advancers, 21 decliners and 1 acquired
Wednesday closed negative with 8 advancers, 25 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Tuesday closed negative with 11 advancers, 23 decliners and 1 acquired
Monday (2/8) closed positive with 27 advancers, 7 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Friday closed positive with 28 advancers, 6 decliners and 1 acquired
Thursday closed positive with 27 advancers, 7 decliners and 1 acquired
Wednesday closed positive with 17 advancers, 16 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Tuesday closed positive with 25 advancers, 7 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired
Monday (2/1) closed positive with 22 advancers, 11 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
The BOTTOM LINE: As I said this morning, “follow the potential of bouncing share pricing and a few more falling knives or not.” The falling knives went splat along with the Greek wedding dishes <also from yesterday>but, after most major declines there is usually a resurgence of bouncing BUYs following those dips.
Tuesday, I had felt a “risk-on” signal … was in the cards for Thursday and it was a TOTAL wipe-out of the sector.
I just don’t see REAL and SUSTAINABLE … bottoms until post earnings’ season as the market pull-back “ain’t” over.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
