March 12, 2021 5:37pm

Another I told you so …

Pre-open indication results: 8 HITs and 2 MISS

Week in review … check the daily closes against the week’s ending

Numbers based facts speak better then opinion as I see answers in numbers to speak truth over opinion!

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence

The Dow closed UP +293.05 points (+0.90%); the S&P closed UP +4 points (+0.10%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -78.81 points (-0.59%)

 

Henry’omics:

One (1) index (Dow) pumped, the S&P flumped and one (1) dumped (Nasdaq) yet with a couple of all-time highs on Friday as rising reopening optimism continued which seemed to discourage the cell and gene therapy equities while encouraging a rotation into cyclical stocks.

Meanwhile, surging bond yields rekindled valuation fears and took the comeback momentum out of our universe or sector names.

  • The 10-year Treasury yield jumped more than 0.1% to 1.64% Friday, hitting its highest level since February 2020. The benchmark rate started 2021 at around 0.92%.

Maybe, the rapid rise in bond yields prompted “some” investors to dump the Nasdaq names again after a brief rebound earlier this week.

Friday’s sell-off pared the Nasdaq’s weekly gain to about 2%. The S&P 500 is up 2% on the week, while the blue-chip Dow outperformed with a 3.7% rally this week as investors piled into names tied to an economic recovery. <CNBC>

 

Data Docket: U.S. consumer sentiment improved in early March to its strongest in a year, a survey by the University of Michigan.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “ra, ra, the fiscal aid/stimulus; euphoria but, prepare for the headwind; support wanes as resistance firms while market forces remain volatile.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11810

 

Pre-open indication results:  8 HITs <SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.11 with 4,069 shares – “pumped”); SELL: Cellectis SA (CLLS -$1.37), BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.64), Falling Knife: AxoGen (AXGN -$0.33); SELL into Strength: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.27), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.45), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.04)> and 2 MISS < Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.10), bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.36)>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions

  • Friday opened negative at 5/28, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 10/22, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative at 12/22 and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened positive at 28/4, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 26/7, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing positive at 28/6 and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened positive at 29/4, 1 flat and 1 acquired, strayed negative at the mid-day to 12/21, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 15/15, 4 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened positive at 30/2 2 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 31/3 and 1 acquired, closing positive at 30/4 and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened positive at 30/12 2 flat and 1 acquired, strayed negative at the mid-day to 8/26 and 1 acquired, closing negative at 3/30, 2 flats and 1 acquired;

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Vericel (VCEL), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY), bluebird bio (BLUE) to name 5 of the 12 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Cellectis SA (CLLS), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) to name 5 of the 22 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 12-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the volume of 0 of 22-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 12-upside were +0.08% (RARE) to +3.20% (KDNY) while the 22-downside ranges from -0.55% (ALNY) to -8.03% (BSTG);

 

Friday’s (12 of 12) incline

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$3.00 after Thursday’s -$3.00);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.12);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.58);
  • Vericel (+$0.57 after Thursday’s +$3.19);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE+$0.36 after Thursday’s -$0.41 and Wednesday’s +$2.44);
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.20);
  • Solid Bioscience (SLDB +$0.16 after Thursday’s -$0.47 and Wednesday’s -$0.77);
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.12);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.10 after Thursday’s +$6.89, Wednesday’s -$4.26, Tuesday’s +$9.22 and Monday’s -$3.50);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.09);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.08);
  • Caladrius Bioscience (CLBS +$0.03);

Friday’s (10 of 22) decliners:

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$3.67 after Thursday’s +$7.81 after Wednesday’s +$1.33, Tuesday’s +$9.36 and Monday’s -$4.49);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.27 after Thursday’s +$9.73, Wednesday’s -$1.48 and Tuesday’s +$12.01);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.64 after Thursday’s +$3.27, Wednesday’s +$0.45, Tuesday’s +$2.94 and Monday’s -$2.37);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$1.37);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.18 after Thursday’s +$4.60, Wednesday’s -$2.58, Tuesday’s +$2.98 and Monday’s -$2.08);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.04);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.82);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.78 after Thursday’s +$8.30, Wednesday’s -$3.00, Tuesday’s -$0.94 and Monday’s -$4.77);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.51);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.50);

Closing Flat: 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Sentiment and COVID-19 infections:

  • Interesting stat, “A year after the Covid pandemic shut down the economy, stocks have gained 79% from the lows and the market is expected to continue to rally.”

Infection cases <Million>: never to forget …

  • Friday 29.28 M cases,
  • Friday’s death rate totaled 530,833 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed down -0.72% and XBI closed down -0.30%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +2.82% and XBI closed up +3.87%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +0.03% and XBI closed up +0.20%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +2.94% and XBI closed up +4.65%
  • Monday, the IBB closed down -1.94% and XBI closed down -2.77%

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -1.22 points or -5.57% at 20.69
  • Thursday was down -0.66 points or -2.93% at 21.90
  • Wednesday was down -1.47 points or -6.12% at 22.56
  • Tuesday was down -1.44 points or -5.65% at 24.03
  • Monday was up +1.20 points or +4.87% at 25.96

 

Upside volume: low

  • Friday: 2 out of the 12-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 1 out of the 28-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 2 out of the 15-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 7 out of the 30-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 1 out of the 3-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume: low

  • Friday: 0 out of the 22-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 1 out of the 6-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 2 out of the 15-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 2 out of the 4-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 6 out of the 30-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: % and pricing drop

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the xx-upside were +0.08% (RARE) to +3.20% (KDNY) while the x-downside ranges from -0.55% (ALNY) to -8.03% (BSTG)
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 28-upside were +0.77% (MESO) to +11.12% (NTLA) while the 6-downside ranges from -0.1.26% (BLUE) to -8.67% (BSTG);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 15-upside were +0.43% (VSTM) to +8.12% (BLUE) while the 15-downside ranges from -0.26% (VCEL) to -7.26% ();
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 30-upside were +0.92% (MESO) to +22.64% (NTLA) while the 4-downside ranges from -0.68% (ALNY) to -9.73% (MDXG);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 3-upside were +0.49% (CLLS) to +2.23% (CLBS) while the 30-downside ranges from -0.21% (FIXX) to -10.08% (NTLA);

 

March, the 3rd month of Q1/21:

Friday closed negative with 12 advancers, 22 decliners and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 28 advancers, 6 decliners and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed neutral with 15 advancers, 15 decliners, 4 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 30 advancers, 4 decliners and 1 acquired

Monday (3/8) closed negative with 3 advancers, 30 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Friday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 3 advancers, 30 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 3 advancers, 30 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 8 advancers, 26 decliners and 1 acquired

Monday (3/1) closed positive with 27 advancers, 6 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: What went down leaving the sector half-empty, went up and then became half-full ...

Sustainability is the real issue in “this” market!

Markets are scary, frightening investors – volatilities basis is pure speculation i.e., gambling.

NOT for me - I am STILL sending up a red flag on stock pricing until earnings’’ season completes its run.

There is always a shift going-on however, these last two (2) months and one (1) week continues to leave me … QUESTIONING each WEEK as I have said recently - my horizon on Monday is to meet on Friday.

As to earnings’ season: “Again, “forewarned … earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season is upon us – my advice has been … trim and skim … if one can!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.