March 26, 2021 7:34pm

After indexes surged in last hour session surge following another “told-you-so”

Pre-open indication results: 9 HITs and 0 MISS

Week in review …

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence

Numbers based facts speak better then opinion as I see answers in numbers that equate to facts!


The Dow closed UP +453.40 points (+1.39%); the S&P closed UP +65.02 points (+1.66%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +161.05 points (+1.24%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes climbed on Friday, finishing a volatile week with an upside surge…

The S&P 500 and the Dow ended a seesaw week higher as investors rebalanced their portfolios at the quarter's end.

The Nasdaq ended higher, but posted its second (2nd) weekly decline in a row.

At the market close …

  • The small-cap Russell 2000 was up 1.3%,
  • The Nasdaq gained 1.2% after trading in the negative,
  • Volume was trading lower on the Nasdaq compared with the close on Thursday,
  • The Nasdaq found resistance around its 50-day moving average and will need to rise above this area in order to regain an upward trajectory on Monday.

For the week, the S&P rose +1.6% and the Dow +1.4%, while the Nasdaq slipped -0.6%.

 

Data Docket: Fears of rising inflation eased after data showed tame price pressures. The core personal consumption expenditure price index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1% month over month, matching expectations from economists. Year over year, the gauge climbed 1.4%, slightly lower than a 1.5% estimate.

  • Also, consumer sentiment in the U.S. continued to rise amid the vaccine rollout. A University of Michigan survey released Friday showed the final reading of the index of consumer sentiment was 84.9 in March, up from 76.8 in February. Economists expected a reading of 83.7. <CNBC>

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: TGIF, strength is migratory and the cell and gene therapy sector seems directionless” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11833     

 

Pre-open indication results:  9 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.00 with 10 shares): SELL into Strength: Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.10), Athersys (ATHX -$0.07), bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.37), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.70), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.27), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.30), Verastem (VSTM +$0.13), Vericel (VCEL -$2.67) and 0 MISS <

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions

  • Friday opened negative at 11/21, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 5/28 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 12/20, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened negative at 6/27, 1 flat and 1 acquired, strayed positive at the mid-day to 18/15 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing positive at 22/11, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 10/24 and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 5/28 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 1/33 and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 2/30, 2 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 3/31 and 1 acquired, closing negative at 4/31 and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened positive at 24/9, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 19/15 and 1 acquired, closing negative at 1618 and 1 acquired;

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), bluebird bio (BLUE) to name 5 of the 12 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE), ReNeuron (RENE.L), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Vericel (VCEL), Ultragenyx (RARE) to name 5 of the 20 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume had LOW with 1 of the 12-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the volume of 3 of 20-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 12-upside was +0.25% (BLCM) to +5.56% (VSTM) while the 20-downside ranges from -0.13% (RGNX) to -8.73% or -$0.44 (PSTI);

 

Friday’s (12 of 12) incliners

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.30);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.27 after Thursday’s +$2.25, Wednesday’s -$4.00, Tuesday’s -$3.17 and Monday’s +$2.68);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.01 after Thursday’s +$0.61, Wednesday’s -$4.03, Tuesday’s -$5.59 and Monday’s -$0.01)
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.44 after Thursday’s -$0.77);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.37 after Thursday’s +$1.33);
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.22 after Thursday’s -$0.39);
  • Verastem (VSTM +$0.13);
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.08);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.07 after Thursday’s -$0.26 and Wednesday’s +$0.02 post news of positive Topline Data in P2 Study Evaluating NurOwn® as a Treatment for Progressive MS);
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.03 after Thursday’s +$0.46 and offering close);
  • Caladrius Bioscience (CLBS +$0.02 after Thursday’s -$0.04);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.01);

Friday’s (10 of 20) decliners:

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$6.36 after Thursday’s -$3.46, Wednesday’s -$5.21, Tuesday’s -$4.73 and Monday’s +$1.63);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$5.00 after Thursday’s -$1.50, Wednesday’s -$3.00, Tuesday’s -$3.00 and Monday’s -$1.00);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.36 after Thursday’s -$0.95, Wednesday’s -$10.94, Tuesday’s -$6.51 and Monday’s +$3.39);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$2.67 after Thursday’s +$2.79 after Wednesday’s -$4.05);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$2.18 after Thursday’s -$0.13, Wednesday’s -$6.05, Tuesday’s -$6.57 and Monday’s -$1.16);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.99 after Thursday’s -$1.25, Wednesday’s -$3.02, Tuesday’s +$3.41 after Q4 earnings’ loss, merger and Monday’s -$0.19);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.70 after Thursday’s +$1.19, Wednesday’s -$5.09, Tuesday’s -$2.40 and Monday’s +$3.48);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.77);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.57 after Thursday’s -$0.74);

Closing: 2 – Homology Medicine (FIXX) and Biostage (BSTG) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Sentiment and COVID-19 infections:

  • Maintaining, sentiment was on display in “our’ universe of cell and gene therapy equities – mainly because they appeared oversold versus valuation conflicted.
  • As a side remark, after receiving my second PFE shot yesterday, side-effects lasted for hours on Friday of adverse reactions leaving a moderate headache … by the time I wrote this.

Infection cases <Million>: never to forget …

  • Friday 30.09 M cases,
  • Friday’s death rate totaled 547,097 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats: tell a story of sector "conditions"

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed up +0.31% and XBI closed down -1.59%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +1.02% and XBI closed up +2.88%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -2.84% and XBI closed down -5.14%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -3.93% and XBI closed down -5.83%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +1.24% and XBI closed up +1.44%

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.95 points or -4.80% at 18.86
  • Thursday was down -1.39 points or -6.56% at 19.81
  • Wednesday was up +0.90 points or +4.43% at 21.20
  • Tuesday was up +1.42 points or +7.52% at 20.30
  • Monday was down -2.07 points or -9.88% at 18.88

 

Upside volume: low

  • Friday: 1 out of the 12-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 7 out of the 22-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 1 out of the 1-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 1 out of the 3-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 4 out of the 16-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Downside volume: low

  • Friday: 3 out of the 20-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 6 out of the 11-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 11 out of the 33-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 12 out of the 31-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 4 out of the 18-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: % and pricing drop

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 12-upside was +0.25% (BLCM) to +5.56% (VSTM) while the 20-downside ranges from -0.13% (RGNX) to -8.73% or -$0.44 (PSTI);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 22-upside was +0.03% (RGNX) to +10.32% (ADVM) while the 11-downside ranges from -0.12% (RARE) to -6.44% (BCLI);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 1-upside was +3.06% (BCLI) while the 33-downside ranges from -0.71% (IONS) to -11.05% (EDIT);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 3-upside were +1.70% (MDXG) to +8.48% (BLFS) while the 31-downside ranges from -1.93% (MESO) to -21.66% (IONS);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 16-upside were +0.24% (PGEN) to +7.73% (EDIT) while the 18-downside ranges from -0.01% (ALNY) to -3.27% (CLBS);

 

March, the 3rd month of Q1/21:

Friday closed negative with 12 advancers, 20 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 22 advancers, 11 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 1 advancer, 33 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 3 advancers, 31 decliners and 1 acquired

Monday (3/22) closed negative with 16 advancers, 18 decliners and 1 acquired

Friday closed positive with 32 advancers, 2 decliners and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 4 advancers, 29 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed positive with 25 advancers, 8 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 4 advancers, 30 decliners and 1 acquired

Monday (3/15) closed positive with 25 advancers, 9 decliners and 1 acquired

Friday closed negative with 12 advancers, 22 decliners and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 28 advancers, 6 decliners and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed neutral with 15 advancers, 15 decliners, 4 flat and x acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 30 advancers, 4 decliners and 1 acquired

Monday (3/8) closed negative with 3 advancers, 30 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Friday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 3 advancers, 30 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 3 advancers, 30 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 8 advancers, 26 decliners and 1 acquired

Monday (3/1) closed positive with 27 advancers, 6 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: It’s over, the week of bouncing stock pricing in our universe of cell and gene therapy sector which has skewered my outlook for valuation growth, leaving a haphazard path traveled and to be traversed!

Think about the issue of a “shake-down” of share pricing by algorithms and electronic trading?

NOT for me - I am STILL sending up a red flag on stock pricing until earnings’’ season completes its run as volatility rules!

“Again, my time horizon for HOLDING an equity is last Friday to today” – think about that and check the Advance/Decline (A/D line) to VALIDATE my thesis.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.