April 9, 2021 5:45pm

Investors expect higher volatility as Q1 ends but, we just finished reporting Q4 and FY10 as the sector shows little concern for fundamentals

Pre-open indication results: 7 HIT and 2 Miss

The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be …

The week in review

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors

Where are the canaries in the sector coal mine, am I the only one?  

The Dow closed UP +279.03 points (+0.89%); the S&P closed UP +31.63 points (+0.77%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +70.88 points (+0.51%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes climbed to record levels and closed out Friday at their session highs wrapping-up the week with solid gains amid rising re-opening optimism.

  • The Dow (+2%), the S&P (+2.7%) and the Nasdaq (+3.1%) climbed 2% this week

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has been trading under the 20 “level” for eight (8) sessions straight; (today’s 16.69) tracking the level of fear.

Interesting news:  Two biotechnology companies, VectivBio Holding (VCET) and Reneo Pharmaceuticals (RPHM), made their market debuts on Friday. VCET’s stock rose (+43%) while RPHM dropped (-7.40%) below its offer price.

  • Last year, biotech emerged as one of the busiest sectors of the IPO market. There were 102 healthcare initial public offerings last year, valued at $24.8 billion. Of the 102, three-fourths were biotech, raising $20.1 billion. This year, there have been 40 healthcare offerings—including biotech in Q1, representing about $8.7 billion,

 

Data Docket: the producer price index, which measures wholesale price inflation, jumped in March. The March PPI data showed a rise of 1.0%, compared with a projected increase of 0.4% from economists surveyed. Year over year, the PPI surged 4.2%, which marks the largest annual gain in more than nine years.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “trust, confidence versus conviction as the cell and gene therapy sector runs out of buyers, it runs into trouble (just like a fire that runs out of wood).” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11858

 

Pre-open indication results:  7 HITs <Maintain SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.00 to $1.25 with 6 shares traded): SELL into Strength: Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.02), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.20), Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.32), Homology Medicine (FIXX - $0.16), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.44), Vericel (VCEL -$2.05), and 2 MISS < CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$4.64), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$3.30)    

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions

  • Friday opened negative at 3/30, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 7/26, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 5/26, 3 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened positive at 19/14, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 27/6, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing positive at 24/8, 2 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 8/25, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 7/26, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 3/30, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened positive at 24/8, 2 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 18/15, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 10/24, 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened positive at 26/6, 2 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 18/14, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing positive at 24/8, 2 flats and 1 acquired;

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum: yesterday’s dogs get to bark again

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), MiMedx (MDXG), Caladrius Bioscience (CLBS) to name 5 of the 5 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ultragenyx (RARE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), to name 5 of the 26 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume had LOW with 2 of the 5-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the volume of 4 of 26-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 5-upside were +0.50% (BLFS) to +9.92% (RENE.L) while the 26-downside ranges from -0.22% (SAGE) to -6.59% (ADVM);

 

Friday’s (5 of 5) incline

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$12.00 after Thursday’s -$5.00 and Tuesday’s +$1.50);
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.64);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +0.44 after Thursday’s -$0.37);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS+0.20 after Thursday’s +$0.94, Wednesday’s -$1.95, Tuesday’s +$1.09 and Monday’s -$0.97);
  • Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS +$0.05 after Thursday’s -$0.03)

Friday’s (10 of 26) decliners:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$4.64 after Thursday’s +$1.85 and Wednesday’s -$3.10);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.27 after Thursday’s +$1.83, Wednesday’s -$1.34, Tuesday’s -$0.64 and Monday’s +$0.84):
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$3.07 after Thursday’s +$1.28, Wednesday’s -$3.92 and Tuesday’s -$4.23);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.44 after Thursday’s +$1.99, Wednesday’s -$8.53 and Tuesday’s -$0.61);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$2.05 after Thursday’s +$4.35);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$1.74 after Thursday’s +$0.96);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.30);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.02 after Thursday’s +$3.31, Wednesday’s -$4.40, Tuesday’s -$3.56 after Monday’s -$1.75);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.71 after Thursday’s -$1.15);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.63);

Closing: 3 – AxoGen (AXGN), Biostage (BSTG), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Sentiment and COVID-19:

  • Health experts generally agree that the mixing and matching of the vaccines should be safe; but clinical trials are ongoing. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) maintains that the safety and efficacy of a mixed-product series have not been evaluated.

Infection cases <Million>: never to forget …

  • Friday vaccinations: 175 M
  • Friday 30.737 M cases,
  • Friday’s death rate totaled 556,106 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed down -0.44% and XBI closed down -2,22%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +0.36% and XBI closed up +0.62%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -1.79% and XBI closed down -2.41%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.39% and XBI closed down -2.62%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +0.43% and XBI closed up +1.17%

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.26 points or -1.53% at 16.69
  • Thursday was down -0.21 points or -1.22% at 16.95
  • Wednesday was down -0.96 points or -5.30% at 17.16
  • Tuesday was up +0.21 points or +1.17% at 18.12
  • Monday was up +0.60 points or +3.46% at 17.03

 

Upside volume: low

  • Friday: 2 out of the 5-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 4 out of the 24-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 0 out of the 3-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 4 out of the 10-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 24-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Downside volume: low

  • Friday: 4 out of the 26-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 2 out of the 8-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 4 out of the 30-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 2 out of the 24-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 1 out of the 8-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: % and pricing drop

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 5-upside were +0.50% (BLFS) to +9.92% (RENE.L) while the 26-downside ranges from -0.22% (SAGE) to -6.59% (ADVM);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 25-upside were +0.09% (SGMO) to +8.02% (BLCM) while the 8-downside ranges from -1.08% (SAGE) to -3.83% (BLUE);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 3-upside were +0.12% (MESO) to +5.35% (SLDB) while the 30-downside ranges from -0.13% (VCEL) to -22.80% (FIXX);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 10-upside were +0.17% (QURE) to +7.41% (MDXG) while the 24-downside ranges from -0.07% (GBT) to -8.10% (PGEN);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 24-upside were +0.07% (EDIT) to +9.44% (PGEN) while the 8-downside ranges from -0.18% (SLDB) to -4.59% (AGTC);

 

April, the beginning of Q2/21:

Friday closed negative with 5 advancers, 26 decliners, 3 flats and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 24 advancers, 8 decliners, 2 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 3 advancers, 30 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 10 advancers, 24 decliners and 1 acquired

Monday (4/5) closed positive with 24 advancers, 8 decliners, 2 flat and 1 acquired

Thursday (4/1) closed positive with 19 advancers, 13 decliners, 2 flat and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: After today’s downslide, sector momentum remains “sketchy” and these alternative session breathers seems to guarantee more uncertainty and risks.

NEWS, clinical – non-financial (i.e., raising capital) needs to flow!!!

Investors are here to make money from investments that is WHY, I say SELL into Strength!

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

Don’t get complacent …

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.