April 13, 2021 7:44am
Price target assumptions are lately worthless when determining sector equity’s fair value in these markets as fundamentals and technical factors are ignored or just disregarded
Pre-open indications: 2 BUY, 4 SELLs and 1 Maintain SELL
Mentions: AGTC, IONS, BSTG, VCEL, CRSP, QURE, VCEL, RENE.L
NEWS: FDA recommends a pause in the J&J vaccine immediately because of a blood clotting issue
My version of the morning’s “numbers” is written to be informative rather than just about changes to share pricing; it’s what happened or will materialize after the opening and what might happen in the session
My comments are important in trying to distinguish the temporary from real pricing progress.
Dow futures are DOWN -0.42% (-140 points), S&P futures are DOW -0.33% (-14 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.13% (-19 points)
U.S. stock futures were floating downward early Tuesday morning,
European markets slipped higher,
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed following a soft session on Monday.
Data Docket: March reading for the consumer price index, scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists are projecting the headline index to rise by 0.5% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year.
- China’s exports in March rose 30.6% from a year ago, according to customs data released Tuesday. Economists had expected exports to grow 35.5% from a year ago, according to a Reuters poll. Chinese imports for March jumped 38.1% from a year earlier, above expectations in a Reuters poll for a 23.3% on-year increase.
Health agencies will call for a pause in the J&J vaccine immediately because of a blood clotting issue, the NYTimes report said.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 finished down -0.02%, while the Dow slipped -0.16% as the Nasdaq shed -0.36%.
Today, it could get UGLY …
Monday’s evening’s recap: “it was scary, staring at the cell and gene therapy sector abyss. The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be as “our” universe runs out of buyers, it runs into trouble (just like a fire that runs out of wood).” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11861
- The Nasdaq closed DOWN -50.19 points (0.36%);
- The IBB closed down -1.50% and XBI closed down -1.99%
- Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 4-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the volume of 6 of 30-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) was up +0.22 points or +1.32% at 16.91;
- Monday’s percentages (%) of the 4-upside were +0.13% (EDIT) to +3.38% (RENE.L) while the 30-downside ranges from -0.11% (ADVM) to -9.66% (CLBS);
Q2/21 and April: 4 negative and 3 positive closes
- March: 10 positive, 12 negative and 1 neutral closes
- February: 9 positive, 10 negative closes and 1 holiday
- January: 10 positive, 9 negative closes and 1 holiday
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:
Biostage (BSTG): Questions continue … Maintaining Sell
Biostage (BSTG) closed down -$0.08 to $1.17 with 3,631 shares traded after Friday’s flat at $1.25 with 260 shares traded, Thursday with 6 shares traded, Wednesday’s $1.25 with 967 shares traded and last Tuesday’s -$0.05 to $1.25 with 2008 shares traded.
Question#1: HOW many executives or management “team members” remain at the company? Is the website truthful and up-to-date regarding those WHO have left for other positions?
Question2: WHO is in charge of clinical and pre-clinical development?
Question#3: WHAT is behind the volatility and daily volume relationship and WHO is “propping” the share pricing (review the differences). Shouldn’t RSM US LLP review the relationship with DST Capital and Hong Yu, president of BSTG?
MINORITY PUBLIC shareholders are waiting, watching and weighing responses to MAINTAIN their RIGHTS.
BUY from SELL:
Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed down -$0.35 to $4.06 after Friday’s $4.41, Thursday’s $4.57, Wednesday’s $4.45 and last Tuesday’s $4.74 with a positive +0.05 or +1.23% pre-market indication.TeamedOn International, Inc., a biotechnology company dedicated to advancing gene therapies for rare diseases, including ophthalmic indications, and Applied Genetic Technologies Corporation (Nasdaq: AGTC), a biotechnology company conducting human clinical trials of adeno-associated virus (AAV)-based gene therapies for the treatment of rare diseases, today announced a licensing agreement to advance gene therapy to treat X-linked retinoschisis (XLRS), an inherited disease that causes loss of vision due to degeneration of the retina in males. Under the terms of the agreement, AGTC will provide TeamedOn with the clinical trial material, pre-clinical and clinical data generated for the development of AGTC’s investigational intravitreal gene therapy candidate, rAAV2tYF-CB-hRS1.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed down -$1.49 to $40.87 after Friday’s $42.36, Thursday’s $42.69, Wednesday’s $43.65 and last Tuesday’s $47.25 with a positive +0.73 or +1.79% aftermarket indication.
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$1.35 to $114.39 after Friday’s -$4.64 to $115.74, Thursday’s $120.38, Wednesday’s $118.53 and last Tuesday’s $121.63 with a negative -$0.54 or -0.47% pre-market indication.
uniQure NV (QURE) closed down -$0.60 to $33.14 after Friday’s $33.74, Thursday’s $35.48, Wednesday’s $34.52 and last Tuesday’s $35.84 with a negative -$0.14 or -0.42% pre-market indication.
SELL into Strength:
Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$0.41 to $58.18 after Friday’s -$2.05 to $57.77, Thursday’s +$4.35 to $59.82, Wednesday’s $55.47 and Tuesday’s $55.54 with a NO aftermarket indication; but an Icarus flight pattern.
ReNeuron (RENE.L) closed up +$.50 to $137.50 after Friday’s +$12.00 to $133.00, Thursday’s $121.00, Wednesday’s $115.00 and last Tuesday’s $120.00 and is up +$2.25 or +1.74% in the pre-market
The BOTTOM LINE: In the past six (6) sessions, the XBI lost -2.52% while the IBB lost -3.82% while volatility was down three (3) out of six (6) sessions.
My comments are important in trying to distinguish the temporary from real pricing progress. Always maintain a perspective and know “how to get out of Dodge” – (a metaphor)!
Again, “Momentum is fragmented, volatility exceeds volume and we shouldn’t base our buying or selling positions in this climate of prospects that have lately gone unfulfilled!”
I make a commitment to put “facts in evidence” as to tactical signals for sector equites.
I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.