April 22, 2021 5:31pm

Even with a Biden driven market decline as President will propose higher capital gains tax hike

Pre-open indication performance: 1 MISS

News:  Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE -$0.27) completed an End-of-P2 (EOP2) meeting with the FDA for the DTX301 ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) deficiency gene therapy program. The meeting focused on the discussion of the P1/2 data and alignment on P3 design and endpoints.

If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi defines the extenuating factors of share pricing! 

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors

 

The Dow closed DOWN -321.41 points (-0.94%); the S&P closed DOWN -38.44 points (-0.92%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -131.80 points (-0.94%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes reversed lower on Thursday after reports that President Biden is slated to propose much higher capital gains taxes for the rich.

  • A hike as high as 43.4% for wealthy Americans. The proposal would hike the capital gains rate to 39.6% for those earning $1 million or more, up from 20% currently. <Bloomberg, Reuters, NY Times and CNBC>

Earlier, in the session, stocks were little changed and struggled for direction. Stocks have churned in recent sessions as investors digested a bevy of corporate earnings results and awaited additional reports, more economic data and more commentary from Federal Reserve officials in the coming weeks. <yahoo finance>

 

Data docket: Investors also digested a better-than-expected reading on weekly jobless claims. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for unemployment insurance totaled 547,000, which was below the estimate for 603,000.

  • Also, closed sales of existing homes fell 3.7% in March to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.01 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median price of an existing home sold in March was $329,100, a 17.2% increase from March 2020. Mortgage rates started this year near a record low but then began climbing steeply in February and throughout most of March.

 

News (continued): Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE)

  • Based on the outcome of this meeting, RARE has finalized the P3 study design, which will include a 64-week primary efficacy analysis period and enroll approximately 50 patients 12 years of age and older, randomized 1:1 to DTX301 (1.7 x 10^13 GC/kg dose) or placebo. The co-primary endpoints are change in 24-hour plasma ammonia levels and the percent of patients who achieve a response as measured by discontinuation or reduction in baseline disease management. RARE previously completed an initial Scientific Advice process with the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and this design incorporates the scientific advice.

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions

  • Thursday opened positive at 18/14, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 29/5 and 1 acquired, closing positive at 24/8, 2 flats and 1 acquired;

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “volatility evaporates, increases or decreases the upside. As quick as a record close come, is fast as they just might go with low volumes over the last three (3) sector’s sessions.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11878

 

Pre-open indication results:  1 MISS < Biostage (BSTG +$0.18 at $1.15 with 1,202 shares traded – back to the “pump or promote” to salvage the (plunging) share pricing);

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Regenxbio (RGNX), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) to name 5 of the 24 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Mesoblast (MESO), Ultragenyx (RARE), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), Solid Biosciences (SLDB), AxoGen (AXGN), Voyager therapeutics (VYGR), Sangamo therapeutics (SGMO), Fate Therapeutics (FATE) to name 8 of the 8 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 24-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the volume of 0 of 8 downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 24-upside were +0.15% (FIXX) to +15.50% (BSTG) while the 8-downside ranges from -0.01% (FATE) to -3.84% (MESO);

 

Thursday’s (10 of 24) incline

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$9.50 after Wednesday’s -$6.50 and Tuesday’s flat);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$4.97 after Wednesday’s +$3.26, Tuesday’s +$6.63 on VRTX news and Monday’s -$3.52);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.97);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.97);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.96);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.87 after Wednesday’s +$1.02 and Tuesday’s +$0.47);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.66);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.58 after Wednesday’s -$0.13, Tuesday’s -$0.57 and Monday’s -$0.99);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.43 after Wednesday’s +$1.39 and Tuesday’s +$0.30);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.35);

Thursday’s (8 of 8) decliners:

  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.34);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.27 after Wednesday’s +$4.15);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.15 after Wednesday’s +$1.56, Tuesday’s -$1.20 and Monday’s -$1.46);
  • Voyager therapeutics (VYGR -$0.09);
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.07);
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.02 after Wednesday’s +$1.01, Tuesday’s +$0.55 and Monday’s -$1.05);
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.02);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.01 after Wednesday’s +$6.06, Tuesday’s -$1.47 and Monday’s -$1.52);

Closing: 2 – Athersys (ATHX), Verastem (VSTM) and 1- Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

COVID-19 updates:

  • Reiterating, “Scientist who helped develop Pfizer-BioNTech Covid vaccine agrees third shot is needed as immunity wanes. Dr. Ozlem Tureci, co-founder and CMO of BioNTech, which developed a Covid vaccine with Pfizer, said she also expects people will need to get vaccinated against the coronavirus annually, like for the seasonal flu.”

COVID Data Tracker <Million>:

  • Thursday 31,66 M cases,
  • Thursday’s death rate totaled 566,494 <Johns Hopkins University>
  • Thursday vaccinations:  219 M

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB closed up to +0.06% and XBI closed up +1.33%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was up +1.21 points or +6.91% at 18.71

Upside volume: low

  • Thursday: 5 out of the 24-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume: low

  • Thursday: 0 out of the 8-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: LOW % with limited pricing drops as upside maintains

  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 24-upside were +0.15% (FIXX) to +15.50% (BSTG) while the 8-downside ranges from -0.01% (FATE) to -3.84% (MESO);

 

April, the beginning of Q2/21:

Thursday closed positive with 24 advancers, 8 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Quoting Karen Finerman, fund manager and CNBC contributor, “Every morning when the market opens, I look at the screen and all the numbers flashing and I think to myself OK should I do? And then I remember doing nothing is probably going to be the best thing for me to do, not as fun, but likely more profitable in the end.”

I felt the same as I stated, “let sector equities “ride” with 1 Maintain SELL”.

After one (1) upside move on Wednesday following a two (2) session “drubbing”, the cell and gene therapy sector took-off to the upside from being oversold to reach the limits again of being overbought – how contrarian of me!

Investors or the “machines algorithms” are buying dips.

Q1/21 earnings are being announced, MiMedx (MDXG) on Wednesday 4/28, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ANY) on Thursday, 4/29, Sage therapeutics (SAGE) on Tuesday, 5/4, AxoGen (AXGN) and Vericel (VCEL) on Wednesday, 5/5 and Athersys (ATHX) on Thursday, 5/6.

Sector momentum remains “sketchy” and these depressed pricing guarantees more uncertainty and risks but, some rebounds.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

My time frame of measurement is Friday to Friday and been proved right again, don’t get complacent …

So, as I approach tomorrow, Friday – say BYE to new highs and hello to a couple of bottoms

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.