April 27, 2021 5:49pm

After eight (8) alternating up and down closes in sector sessions, what’s did one expect?

Pre-open indication performance: 6 HITs and 3 MISS <

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The Dow closed UP +3.36 points (+0.01%); the S&P closed DOWN -0.90 points (-0.02%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -46.56 points (-0.34%)

 

Henry’omics:

The Dow was barely up while the S&P and Nasdaq indexes succumbed to gravity generated by algorithmic electronic trading.

 

Data docket: home prices in February registered the biggest gain in 15 years, rising 12% year over year and up from 11.2% in January, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index.

  • consumer confidence climbed sharply to hit a pandemic high with The Conference Board’s index jumping to 121.7, the highest since February 2020.

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions

  • Tuesday opened negative at 12/21, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 10/30, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 9/24, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened positive at 20/12, 2 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 30/3, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing positive at 31/2, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “share pricing is volatile with low volumes after record close highs, I usually say bye” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11884

 

Pre-open indication results:  5 HITs < SELL into Strength: Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.38), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.32), Vericel (VCEL -$0.37), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.07) - profit was made, Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.51)> and 4 MISS <Biostage (BSTG +$0.18 at $1.28 with 1,669 shares traded) - the “pump and promote is back” after shares tumbled); Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.01), CRISPR Indication (CRSP -$2.68), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.33)>

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), bluebird bio (BLUE), Chinook therapeutics (KDNY) to name 5 of the 9 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ultragenyx (RARE), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Regenxbio (RGNX), Mesoblast (MESO) to name 5 of the 24 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 9-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the volume of 3 of 24-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.18% (EDIT) to +16.36% (BSTG) while the 24-downside ranges from -0.14% (FIXX) to -8.78% (AGTC);

 

Tuesday’s (9 of 9) incliners:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.28 after Monday’s +$6.50);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.51 after Monday’s +$5.67);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.43);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.41);
  • Chinook therapeutics (KDNY +$0.32);
  • Biostage (+$0.18 – manipulated);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.07 after Monday’s +$2.17);
  • Verastem (VST<M +$0.05);
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.01);

Tuesday’s (10 of 24) decliners:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.68 after Monday’s +$9.17);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$2.06);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.60 after Monday’s +$6.18);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.51 after Monday’s +$5.00);
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$1.02);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.72 after Monday’s +2.67);
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.71 after Monday’s -$0.16);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.66);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.62 after Monday’s +$1.93);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$0.50 after Monday’s +$9.50)

Closing: 1 flat – Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) and 1- Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

COVID-19 updates:

  • The rate of daily shots reported administered fell to 2.7 million on Monday, according to the CDC. At the same time, U.S. case counts are declining. The seven-day average of daily new infections dropped below 60,000 on Friday for the first time since March 25.

Tuesday’s COVID Data Tracker <Million>:

  • Cases: 31,924 M
  • Death rate totaled 569,771 <Johns Hopkins University>
  • Vaccinations:  232 M

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.26% and XBI closed up +0.28%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +1.92% and XBI closed up +3.47%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was down -0.08 points or -0.45% at 17.56
  • Monday was up +0.31 points or +1.79% at 17.64

Upside volume: low

  • Tuesday: 2 out of the 9-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 9 out of the 31-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume: low

  • Tuesday: 3 out of the 24-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 1 out of the 2-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: LOW % with limited pricing drops as upside maintains

  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.18% (EDIT) to +16.36% (BSTG) while the 24-downside ranges from -0.14% (FIXX) to -8.78% (AGTC);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 31-upside were +0.47% (AXGN) to +16.49% (VYGR) while the 2-downside ranges from -1.93% (MESO) to -5.17% (MDXG);

 

April, the beginning of Q2/21:

Tuesday closed negative with 9 advancers, 24 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (4/26) closed positive with 31 advancers, 2 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Friday closed negative with 16 advancers, 17 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Earnings are taking center stage as to share pricing over the next weeks; there is a lot of anticipation of what's to come I don’t feel that many cell and gene therapy sector won’t beat any expectations.

Q1/21 earnings are being announced, MiMedx (MDXG) on Wednesday 4/28, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ANY) on Thursday, 4/29, Sangamo therapeutics (SGMO) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) on Tuesday, 5/4, AxoGen (AXGN) and Vericel (VCEL) on Wednesday, 5/5 and Athersys (ATHX) on Thursday, 5/6.

Sector momentum remains “fluid” and any pricing more uncertain as earnings’ season declines induce more downside risks but, hopefully a few rebounds.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

My time frame of measurement is Friday to Friday and been proved right again, don’t get complacent …

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.