RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: the trend was definitely not our friend today as the upside trail got cold

April 29, 2021 5:20pm

Isn’t Biostage (BSTG) proving its “zombie” status with 3,302 shares traded and no pricing move although the “pump and promote” continued?

Pre-open indication performance: 8 HITs and 2 MISS <

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The Dow closed UP +239.98 points (+0.71%); the S&P closed UP +28.29 points (+0.68%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +31.52 points (+0.22%)

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose together while the S&P closed at a record level while the Nasdaq hit a record intraday high before paring some gains.

Cell and gene therapy sector earnings continue … RegMed/Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Q1/21 LPS Results … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

Data docket: Q1 GDP hit an annualized rate of 6.4%, according to a report published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, a sign that the U.S. economy began 2021 with an acceleration of commercial activity. Outside of the reopening-fueled third-quarter surge last year, it was the best period for GDP since the Q3/03. <CNBC>

• The Labor Department, meanwhile, reported that initial jobless claims last week totaled 553,000, just above the 528,000-estimate issued.

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

• Thursday opened negative at 7/26, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 6/27, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 9/23, 2 flats and 1 acquired;

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “expectation and upcoming reactions” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11888

Pre-open indication results:  8 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.00 at $1.26 with 3,302 shares traded - the pump and promote -shares flatlined); Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$6.33); SELL into Strength: Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.13), AxoGen (AXGN +$0.35), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.12), CRISPR Indication (CRSP -$3.66), MiMedx (MDXG -$0.53), Vericel (VCEL -$2.10)> and 2 MISS <Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.21), Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.10),

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

• Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY), Precigen (PGEN), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC), uniQure NV (QURE), AxoGen (AXGN), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM), Cellectis SA (CLLS) to name 9 of the 9 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

• Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) to name 5 of the 23 declining of the 35 covered

Key metrics:

• Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 9-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the volume of 5 of 23-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

• Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.26% (CLLS) to +6.63% (KDNY) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.26% (BLFS) to -62.30% (ADVM);

Thursday’s (9 of 9) incline

• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.21 after Wednesday’s -$0.11, Tuesday’s -$0.62 and Monday’s +$1.93);
• Chinook therapeutics (KDNY +$1.06 after Wednesday’s +$0.61 and Tuesday’s +$0.32);
• uniQure NV (QURE +$0.90 after Wednesday’s -$1.08, Tuesday’s -$0.72 and Monday’s +2.67);
• Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.44 after Wednesday’s -$0.01 and Tuesday’s -$2.06);
• AxoGen (AXGN +$0.35 after Wednesday’s +$0.34);
• Precigen (PGEN +$0.27);
• Applied Genetic Technology (AGTC +$0.13);
• Cellectis SA (CLLS+$0.05 after Wednesday’s -$1.14);
• Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.01 after Wednesday’s +$0.32);

Thursday’s (10 of 23) decliners:

• Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$6.33 after Wednesday’s +$0.30);
• Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$6.22 after Wednesday’s -$0.43, Tuesday’s +$0.51 and Monday’s +$5.67);
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$5.23 after Wednesday’s -$1.76, Tuesday’s +$2.28 and Monday’s +$6.50);
• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$3.84 after Wednesday’s +$2.23, Tuesday’s -$1.60 and Monday’s +$6.18);
• CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.66 after Wednesday’s +$2.50, Tuesday’s -$2.68 and Monday’s +$9.17);
• Vericel (VCEL -$2.10 after Wednesday’s -$0.46);
• Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.55 after Wednesday’s -$0.23, Tuesday’s +$0.07 and Monday’s +$2.17);
• Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.34 after Wednesday’s +$1.49, Tuesday’s -$1.51 and Monday’s +$5.00);
• Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.00 after Wednesday’s +$0.89 and Tuesday’s -$0.66);
• ReNeuron (RENE.L -$1.00 after Wednesday’s flat)

Closing: 2 flat – Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Biostage (BSTG) and 1- Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

COVID-19 updates:

• Issue: Daily coronavirus case counts have fallen by 5% or more in 34 states and the District of Columbia in the past week. At the same time, the rate of daily new coronavirus infections is on the decline in the majority of states.

Monday’s COVID Data Tracker <Million>:

• Cases: 32.031 M
• Death rate totaled 571,297 <Johns Hopkins University>
• Vaccinations:  237 M

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

• Thursday, the IBB closed down -1.19% and XBI closed down -1.17%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

• Thursday was up +0.26 points or +1.50% at 17.54

Upside volume: low

• Thursday: 1 out of the 9-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume: low

• Thursday: 5 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: LOW % with limited pricing drops as upside maintains

• Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.26% (CLLS) to +6.63% (KDNY) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.26% (BLFS) to -62.30% (ADVM);

April, the beginning of Q2/21:

Thursday closed negative with 9 advancers, 23 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

The BOTTOM LINE: NOT much has changed, I am tired of the gloom following boom sessions this month!

As I stated this a.m., I see trouble ahead in the markets and any prognostication will be something difficult or unpleasant thus I anticipate hesitating over until the overview comes clear about “biting the bullet".

At the moment, the only “thing” we’ve got to look forward to is the next wave of Q1 earnings or as I call them LPS (loss-per-share) numbers. Will reporting take the sector down – probable?

Valuations are “frothy” but, the bounce-backs make is many times worthy overall although the “sector picture” is mixed, on the whole reasonably balanced however, manageable.

See earnings review: https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

Sector momentum remain TOO “fluid” and any pricing more uncertain as earnings’ season LPS (loss-per-share) declines induce more downside risks but, hopefully a few rebounds.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

My time frame of measurement is Friday to Friday and been proved right again, don’t get complacent …

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.