Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: who’s buying and selling our sector

May 4, 2021 7:39am

Investors or algorithmic electronic trading?

Pre-open indications: 1 BUY, 7 SELLs and 1 Maintain SELL

Earnings: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO), Ultragenyx (RARE);

Mentions: AGTC, ALNY, AXGN, BLUE, BSTG, CRSP, KDNY, NTLA, SAGE

My version of the morning’s “numbers” is written to be informative rather than just about changes to share pricing; it’s what happened or will materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session

My comments are important in trying to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

Dow futures are DOWN -0.44% (-151 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.56% (-24 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.86% (-119 points)

Stock futures are slipping downward on Tuesday

European stocks were mixed flying around the flatline in late morning trade,

Asia-Pacific stocks were also mixed with major markets in Japan and China still closed for holidays.

Henry’omics:

After a mixed (Dow and S&P were up and Nasdaq was down at close) start to May’s first session of trading while the cell and gene therapy sector closed negative.

States continued to relax pandemic restrictions yet, vaccinations have slowed!

The old adage is the stock market historically doesn’t perform well between May and October and this year may fit perfectly into that trend – I think it’s a little too early to “ponder than pander”.

Monday’s evening’s recap: “new trading month starts on a down sector message from the cosmos. Earnings are a ‘ramping and April’s jobs report will be released on Friday” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11893

The Nasdaq closed DOWN -67.56 points (-0.48%);
The IBB closed up +0.01% and XBI closed down -1.19%
Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 9-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the volume of 3 of 23-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) was down -0.30 points or -1.61% at 18.31;
Monday’s percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.25% (SAGE) to +5.74% (KDNY) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.58% (VCEL) to -6.44% (CRSP);

Q2/21:

May: 1 negative

April: 11 negative and 10 positive closes

Q1/21:

March: 10 positive, 12 negative and 1 neutral closes
February: 9 positive, 10 negative closes and 1 holiday
January: 10 positive, 9 negative closes and 1 holiday

Earnings' reporting: this week, so far

Wednesday - AxoGen (AXGN), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Regenxbio (RGNX), Vericel (VCEL)
Thursday – Athersys (ATHX), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS)

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:

Biostage (BSTG): Questions continue … Maintaining Sell

Biostage (BSTG) closed flat again at $1.26 with 476 shares traded after Friday’s $1.26 with 1,009 shares traded, Thursday’s $1.26 with3,302 shares traded, Wednesday’s -$0.02 to $1.26 with 830 shares traded and last Tuesday’s +$0.18 to $1.28 with 1,458 shares traded.

Question#1: WHO’S making money from BSTG? Connecticut Childrens (hospital) who received $1 Million ($509,500.00 – paid) “gift” from BSTG ($490,500.00 is still owed) while it owned shares (which were exercised for warrant execution); James Schmerling, CEO of and a BSTG board of director (BOD) member also owned shares (which were each exercised for warrant execution) and the principal investigator, Dr. Christine Finck, MD who also owns shares (exercised?). Should a principal investigator own shares while remaining on the BSTG’s board of advisors – the ultimate validity and credibility of “sponsored” research?

Question#2: WHY do they NOT update their website as more of their leadership walks away? WHY do they NEED to misrepresent their management team re clinical and pre-clinical development?

Question#3: With Shunfu Hu as director of business development and operations; will these issues continue to AVOID reporting? Is irregularity perpetuated by the lack of transparency?

Question#4: Herman Sanchez as the new board member, how can you condone these multiple transparency “evasions” – isn’t BSTG all but broke with NO “runway”?

MINORITY PUBLIC shareholders are waiting, watching and weighing responses to MAINTAIN their RIGHTS.

The morning’s indications, from what I discern are in store:

BUY on bounce:

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$5.30 to $135.34 after Friday’s $140.64 with a positive +$2.80 or +2.07% pre-market indication.

Maintaining SELL into Strength:

AxoGen (AXGN) closed up +$0.63 to $19.35 with a negative -$1.13 or -5.84% aftermarket indication, earnings on Wednesday.
Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY) closed up again +$1.03 to $18.98 after Friday’s +$0.91 to $17.95, Thursday’s $17.04, Wednesday’s $15.98 and last Tuesday’s $15.37 with NO aftermarket indication and a very “peaky” chart.
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$0.25 to $78.96 with a negative -$0.71 or -0.90% pre-market indication. Earnings were announced today, a net loss of -$95.8 million or -$1.64 per share with a cash position of $2 Billion and a notice that ZULRESSO can cause serious side effects.

Maintaining SELL:

CRISPR Indication (CRSP) closed down -$8.46 to $122.81 after Friday’s -$0.61 to $131.27, Thursday’s -$3.66, Wednesday’s +$2.50 and last Tuesday’s -$2.68 with a negative -$1.71 or -1.39% aftermarket indication.
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$2.97 to $73.80 after Friday’s -$3.31 to $76.77, Thursday’s -$5.23 to $80.58, Wednesday’s $85.31 and last Tuesday’s $87.07 with a negative -$1.57 or -2.13% pre-market indication.

SELL from BUY:

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed down -$0.11 to $4.12 after Friday’s -$0.07, Thursday’s +$0.13 after Wednesday’s +$0.22, Tuesday’s $0.38 and last Monday’s -$0.07 with a negative -$0.10 or -2.43% pre-market indication.
bluebird bio (BLUE) closed down -$0.40 to $29.60 after Friday’s -$0.23 to $30.00, Thursday’s -$0.16, Wednesday’s +$0.08 and last Tuesday’s -$0.01 with a negative -0.26 or -0.88% aftermarket indication;

The BOTTOM LINE: New month, an even newer share pricing “battle” due to earnings’ season reporting.

Investor expectations are NOT high within this sector earnings’ season.

I haven’t been wrong in seeing trouble ahead in the markets and any prognostication could be somewhat difficult or unpleasant.

My focus has always been “warning analysis” … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!” I also see some lows that could be in the “pick-up” stock game.

I say, re-asses your risk as some questionable earnings are on the horizon.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.