May 6, 2021 5:06pm

The sell-off progresses as earnings LPS (loss-per-share) miss expectations

Pre-open indication performance: 7 HITs and 6 MISS <includes three (3) barely >

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The Dow closed UP +318.19 points (+0.93%); the S&P closed UP +34.03 points (+0.82%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +50.42 points (+0.37%)

 

Henry’omics:

The three (3) indexes (Dow, Nasdaq and S&P) jumped ahead of key April jobs report.

The gains came after a better-than-expected reading on jobless claims – they fell.

Big issue, Pharma companies share pricing fell as Biden backs COVID-19 vaccine IP waiver.

  • Shares in Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA) fell 1% or more. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Novavax (NVAX) ended higher after spending much of the day in negative territory. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) rose 3.37% after reporting a better-than-expected quarterly profit and said it expected demand for its COVID-19 antibody therapy to hold up.

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Q1/21 LPS Results … to date: https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

Data docket: First-time claims for unemployment insurance totaled 498,000 for the week ended May 1, hitting a fresh pandemic-era low and better than a Dow Jones estimate of 527,000.

  • The data came one day before April’s jobs report is released on Friday.

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Thursday opened negative at 6/26, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 8/25, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 12/2 and 1 acquired;

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “the sell-off battered the sector for the third session this month. Now it’s a game of pick-up sticks or stocks; will earnings’ season be able move a stock – yeah!” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11898

 

Pre-open indication results:  7 HITs < SELL after earnings: Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.18), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.60), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$4.88), AxoGen (AXGN +$2.45), Regenxbio (RGNX +$2.22), ReNeuron (RENE.L +$1.00); SELL: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.57) > and 6 MISS < Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.38), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.15  even with positive news), Biostage (BSTG +$0.02 at $1.11 with 207 shares traded – a late 200 share “pump and promote” move), bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.46), Precigen (PGEN +$0.03), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.01), >

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE), AxoGen (AXGN), uniQure NV (QURE), Regenxbio (RGNX), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) to name 5 of the 12 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Vericel (VCEL), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) to name 5 of the 22 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 7 of the 12-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the volume of 9 of 22-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 12-upside were +0.10% (SGM)) to +12.47% (AXGN) while the 22-downside ranges from -0.31% (BCLI) to -8.32% (CLLS);

 

Thursday’s (12 of 12) incliners:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$9.70 after Wednesday’s +$4.16, Tuesday’s -$4.66 and Monday’s -$5.13);
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$2.45 after Wednesday’s +$0.42);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$2.38 after Wednesday’s -$0.47 and Tuesday’s -$2.31);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$2.22 after Wednesday’s -$0.62);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.27);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$1.00 after Wednesday’s +$2.00, Tuesday’s +$7.00 and Monday’s -$5.00)
  • bluebird bio (BLUE+$0.46 after Wednesday’s -$0.69 and Tuesday’s +0.30);
  • Voyager therapeutics (VYGR +$0.10);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.03 after Wednesday’s +$0.05);
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.03 after Wednesday’s -$0.45);
  • Biostage (BSTG +$0.02);
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.01 after Wednesday’s -$0.97);

Thursday’s (10 of 22) decliners:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$6.06 after Wednesday’s -$1.83, Tuesday’s -$7.08 and Monday’s -$8.46);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$4.88 after Wednesday’s -$0.64, Tuesday’s -$1.80 after Monday’s -$2.97);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$3.49 after Wednesday’s -$2.56 and Tuesday’s -$2.91);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$2.56 after Wednesday’s -$2.09);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.80 after Wednesday’s +$2.69, Tuesday’s -$5.56 and Monday’s +$0.17);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$1.41);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.18 after Wednesday’s -$2.00, Tuesday’s -$5.38 and Monday’s -$2.28);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.57 after Wednesday’s +$1.10, Tuesday’s -$3.77 and Monday’s -$5.30);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.48);

Closing: 1- Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

COVID-19 updates:

  • More than 70% of Americans aged 65 years and older are fully vaccinated, according to CDC data published Wednesday. The country has reported an average of 2.1 million vaccinations per day over the past week, down from a peak of 3.4 million in mid-April. Daily U.S. case counts continue to fall, with the seven-day average down 11% from a week ago. <CNBC>

Monday’s COVID Data Tracker <Million>:

  • Cases: 33.31 M
  • Death rate totaled 575,491 <Johns Hopkins University>
  • Vaccinations:  250 M <About 2 in 5 American adults are now fully vaccinated>

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -0.36% and XBI closed down -1.51%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.76 point or -3.97% at 18.39

Upside volume: low

  • Thursday: 7 out of the 12-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume: low

  • Thursday: 9 out of the 22-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: 

  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 12-upside were +0.10% (SGM)) to +12.47% (AXGN) while the 22-downside ranges from -0.31% (BCLI) to -8.32% (CLLS);

 

May, second month of Q2/21:

Thursday closed negative with 12 advancers, 22 decliners and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 12 advancers, 23 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 2 advancers, 32 decliners and 1 acquired

Monday (5/3) closed negative with 9 advancers, 23 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Yesterday I stated, I’d be digging into a couple of sector bottoms and my morning title “slim upside sector pickings” kind of but, did NOT fully estimate the negative response to electronic buying versus investors.

As I stated yesterday, “New month, an even newer share pricing “battle” due to earnings’ season reporting.”

I have been expecting weakness in the sector’s new month share pricing given the old “sell in May and go away” maxim. This mantra calls for taking off risk from May to October, a period where the market is more prone to sell-offs historically.

See earnings review: https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

Sector momentum remains TOO “fluid” and any pricing more uncertain as earnings’ season LPS (loss-per-share) declines induce more downside risks but, hopefully a few rebounds.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

My time frame of measurement is Friday to Friday and been proved right again, don’t get complacent …

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.