RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: the oversold got recognized as dips got bought

May 11, 2021 5:25pm

The problem is, they will be considered overbought in next few sessions as the sector had briefly fallen out of favor earlier this month with earnings’ notching its belt

Pre-open indication performance: 4 HITs and 5 MISS (if one sold, you profited)

Earnings, this week: Thursday: BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Friday: Solid Biosciences (SLDB)

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The Dow closed DOWN -473.66 points (-1.36%); the S&P closed DOWN -36.33 points (-0.87%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -12.43 points (-0.09%)

Henry’omics:

Indexes got hammered yet, regained some “ground” with the Nasdaq getting off lightly in the downdraft.

The sector has also been “wild” having opened to the downside to regain by approximately 1 p.m.

The “fear gauge” – the CBOE Volatility Index, jumped as high as 23.73, levels not seen in two months.

• The so-called VIX remained stubbornly above 20 for most of last year before dropping to a low below 16 last month. A rising VIX is often accompanied by falling markets.

Data Docket: Job openings soared to a record high in March as employers struggled to find workers to fill those positions, the Labor Department reported. Even as help wanted jumped from February by 597,000, or 8%, to 8.12 million, hires rose just 215,000, or 3.7%, to just over 6 million. <CNBC>

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “selling continues, volatility with small volume has been decimating share pricing. So, bounce or trounce? I fall back on my past statement: As the cell and gene therapy sector runs out of buyers, it runs into trouble (just like a fire that runs out of wood).” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11904

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

• Tuesday opened negative at 14/19, 1 flat and 1 acquired, flipped positive at the mid-day to 23/10, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing positive at 23/10, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

Pre-open indication results:  4 HITs < Biostage (BSTG +$0.00 at $1.20 with 388 shares traded), Applied Genetic Technology (AGTC -$0.13), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.73), ReNeuron (RENE.L -$14.00)> and 5 MISS <Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.78), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.77), bluebird bio (BLUE +$1.10), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$5.14), Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.88)>   

RegMed/Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Q1/21 LPS Results … to date: https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Editas Medicine (EDIT) to name 5 of the 23 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

• ReNeuron (RENE.L), Ultragenyx (RARE), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), AxoGen (AXGN), Mesoblast (MESO) to name 5 of the 10 declining of the 35 covered

Key metrics:

• Sector volume was LOW with 7 of the 23-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the volume of 5 of 10-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

• Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 23-upside were +0.22% (SLDB) to +8.42% (NTLA) while the 10-downside ranges from -0.61% (RGNX) to -9.52% (RENE.L);

Tuesday’s (10 of 23) incliners:

• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$5.14 after Monday’s -$6.71);
• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.78 after Monday’s -$2.67);
• Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$2.29);
• CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.08 after Monday’s -$6.24);
• Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.51 after Monday’s -$2.82);
• bluebird bio (BLUE +$1.10 after Monday’s -$2.08);
• Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.88 after Monday’s -$1.30);
• BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.77);
• UniQure NV (QURE +$0.54);
• Sangamo therapeutics (SGMO +$0.48);

Tuesday’s (10 of 10) decliners:

• ReNeuron (RENE.L -$14.00 after Monday’s -$0.50)
• Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.77 after Monday’s -$5.28);
• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.73);
• AxoGen (AXGN -$0.39 after Monday’s -$1.72);
• Mesoblast (MESO -$0.35 after Monday’s +$0.12);
• Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.22);
• Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.13);
• Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.12);
• Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.07);
• Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS -$0.02);

Closing: 1 – Biostage (BSTG) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

COVID-19 updates:

• The rate of new Covid cases in the U.S. fell to an average of 38,800 per day Monday, the first-time daily case counts have been below 40,000 since September.

Monday’s COVID Data Tracker <Million>:

• Cases: 33.54 M
• Death rate totaled 596,813 <Johns Hopkins University>
• Vaccinations:  262 M <About 2 in 5 American adults are now fully vaccinated>

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

• Tuesday, the IBB closed up +0.55% and XBI closed up +1.63%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

• Tuesday was up +2.18 point or +11.09% at 21.84

Upside volume: low

• Tuesday: 7 out of the 23-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume: low

• Tuesday: 5 out of the 10-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: LOW % with limited pricing drops as upside maintains

• Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 23-upside were +0.22% (SLDB) to +8.42% (NTLA) while the 10-downside ranges from -0.61% (RGNX) to -9.52% (RENE.L);

May, second month of Q2/21:

Tuesday closed positive with 23 advancers, 10 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (5/10) closed negative with 3 advancers, 30 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

The BOTTOM LINE:

Whiplash is more than an event or an accident as “some” said so-called short covering contributed to the intraday comeback in the cell and gene therapy sector. When shares sell off sharply, short-sellers betting against the names have to buy back borrowed securities in order to close out the short position and cash out.

Another session of “slim pickings” in the upside/downside sector.

Reiterating, sector momentum remains TOO “fluid” leaving share pricing more uncertain as earnings’ season LPS (loss-per-share) declines induce more downside risks but, hopefully a few rebounds.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

My time frame of measurement is Friday to Friday and been proved right again, don’t get complacent …

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.