May 14, 2021 5:55pm

After riding the roller-coaster since the beginning of May

Pre-open indication performance: 8 HITs and 1 MISS

Week in review …

If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or numbers (which don’t lie) in a volatile climate, RMi defines the slide of share pricing! My comments are important in trying to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

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The Dow closed UP +360.68 points (+1.06%); the S&P closed UP +61.35 points (+1.49%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +304.99 points (+2.32%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes jumped for joy with a rebound.

indexes rebounded from the steep sell-off, but they still posted modest losses for the week as inflation fears hit sentiment. The Dow and the S&P 500 fell more than 1% each this week, as the Nasdaq was down over 2.3% for the week.

The market’s volatility this week comes as economic data points to inflation. The Consumer Price Index jumped 4.2% from a year earlier in April, which was the fastest rate since 2008. <CNBC>

The cell and gene therapy sector earnings season has been weaker-than-expected, and many believed that investors took <today> advantage of the many dips.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “rebound, the upside is coming back at you however, value perceived is not always value achieved” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11911  

 

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Friday opened positive at 25/7, 2 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 4/29, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing positive at 29/4, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened positive at 23/8, 1 flat and 1 acquired, flipped negative at the mid-day to 4/29, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 8/25, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 9/21, 4 flats and 1 acquired, flipped neutral at the mid-day to 17/17, 1 flat and1 acquired, closing negative at 10/23, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 14/19, 1 flat and 1 acquired, flipped positive at the mid-day to 23/10, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing positive at 23/10, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened negative at 1/32, 3 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 6/28, and 1 acquired, closing negative at 3/30, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

Pre-open indication results:  8 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.00 at $1.15 with 54 shares traded), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.21), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.21), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$5.64), Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.08), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.82), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.72), ReNeuron (RENE.L +$0.00) and 1 MISS < bluebird bio (BLUE +$1.03),  

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Q1/21 LPS Results … to date: https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Ultragenyx (RARE), Vericel (VCEL) to name 5 of the 29 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) to name 3 of the 3 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 4 of the 29-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the volume of 1 of 3-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 29-upside were +0.71% (BLFS) to +13.42% (ATHX) while the 4-downside ranges from -0.55% (ADVM) to -21.40% (SLDB);

 

Friday’s (10 of 29) incliners:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$6.64 after Thursday’s -$3.12, Wednesday’s -$2.17, Tuesday’s +$5.14 and Monday’s -$6.71);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$5.45 after Thursday’s +$0.16, Wednesday’s -$2.70, Tuesday’s +$2.08 and Monday’s -$6.24
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$5.35 after Thursday’s -$0.78, Wednesday’s -$5.71 and Tuesday’s +$2.29);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$4.01 after Thursday’s -$0.31);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$2.84 after Thursday’s +$0.66 and Wednesday’s -$2.81);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.76 after Thursday’s -$0.44, Wednesday’s +$0.95, Tuesday’s +$3.78 and Monday’s -$2.67);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.89);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.75 after Thursday’s -$4.43;
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$1.00 after Thursday’s -$0.54, Wednesday’s +$0.35, Tuesday’s +$1.10 and Monday’s -$2.08);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.83 after Thursday’s +$0.06 after Wednesday’s +$0.62);

Friday’s (3 of 3) decliners:

  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.95 post earnings’ report);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.21);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.025);

Closing 1 – Biostage (BSTG) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

COVID-19 updates:

Wednesday’s COVID Data Tracker <Million>:

  • U.S. coronavirus case counts fell further, with the nationwide average now at about 36,700 per day over the past week, the lowest level since Sept. 14. The U.S. is reporting an average of 2.2 million daily vaccinations over the past seven (7) days, federal data shows, and more than 46% of the country’s population has received one shot or more. <CNBC>
  • Cases: 32.68 M
  • Death rate totaled 581,573 - dipping <Johns Hopkins University>
  • Vaccinations:  58.7% <About 2 in 5 American adults are now fully vaccinated>

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed up +2.43% and XBI closed up +3.63%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -0.16% and XBI closed down -1.32%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -1% and XBI closed down -0.78%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +0.55% and XBI closed up +1.63%
  • Monday, the IBB closed down -1.79% and XBI closed down -3.64%

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -4.32 point or -18.68% to 18.81
  • Thursday was down -4.46 point or -16.17% to 23.13
  • Wednesday was up +5.75 point or +5.75% to 27.59
  • Tuesday was up +2.18 point or +11.09% at 21.84
  • Monday was up +2.97 points or +17.80% at 19.66

 

Upside volume: low

  • Friday: 4 out of the 29-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 1 out of the 8-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 4 out of the 10-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 7 out of the 23-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 3-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Downside volume: low

  • Friday: 1 out of the 4-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Thursday: 8 out of the 25-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Wednesday: 2 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Tuesday: 5 out of the 10-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Monday: 9 out of the 30-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: LOW % with limited pricing drops as upside maintains

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 29-upside were +0.71% (BLFS) to +13.42% (ATHX) while the 4-downside ranges from -0.55% (ADVM) to -21.40% (SLDB);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 8-upside were +0.67% (MESO) to +1.40% (VCEL) while the 35-downside ranges from -0.33% (ALNY) to -8.05% (PSTI);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 10-upside were +0.72% (ALNY) to +8.01% (BCLI) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.38% (SAGE) to -7.32% (FATE);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 23-upside were +0.22% (SLDB) to +8.42% (NTLA) while the 10-downside ranges from -0.61% (RGNX) to -9.52% (RENE.L);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 3-upside were +1.72% (MESO) to +4.35% (BSTG) while the 30-downside ranges from -0.24% (SAGE) to -9.91% (NTLA);

 

May, second month of Q2/21:

Friday closed positive with 29 advancers, 4 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 8 advancers, 25 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 10 advancers, 23 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 23 advancers, 10 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (5/10) closed negative with 3 advancers, 30 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Friday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 12 advancers, 22 decliners and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 12 advancers, 23 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 2 advancers, 32 decliners and 1 acquired

Monday (5/3) closed negative with 9 advancers, 23 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  What a month to date … a bounce-back was due!

Reiterating, the cell and gene therapy sector has been experiencing “whiplash which is more than an event or an accident”.

What can I say or write, the oversold were recognized by being bought; hopefully, not over-bought?

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

My time frame of measurement is Friday to Friday and been proved right again, don’t get complacent …

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.