RegMed Investors' (RMi) closing bell: after yesterday's sector drop, today's a pop

May 18, 2021 5:15pm

I’d have more confidence if the sector disruptors were issued a sustainable vaccine

Pre-open indication performance: 7 HITs and 0 MISS

If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or numbers (which don’t lie) in a volatile climate, RMi defines the rigors of share pricing! My comments distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

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The Dow closed DOWN -267.66 points (-0.78%); the S&P closed DOWN -35.49 points (-0.85%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -75.41 points (-0.56%)

Henry’omics:

Indexes wiped out earlier gains and turned negative on Tuesday as tech stocks rolled over, while data showing housing starts dropped sharply last month which also weighed on sentiment.

Housing starts tumbled 9.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.569 million units last month, according to the Commerce Department; economists polled had forecasted “starts” falling to a rate of 1.7 million units in April.

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “investor sentiment influence confidence. Sector slumps, dumps and gets pumped.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11915

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

• Tuesday opened positive at 19/12, 3 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 28/4, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing positive at 21/11, 2 flats and 1 acquired;

Pre-open indication results:  7 HITs <Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.53); BUY from Bounce: Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.47), Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.69): SELL: AxoGen (AXGN -$0.70); BUY:  bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.76), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.98); Maintain SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.16 at $1.13 with 250 shares traded)> and 0 MISS  

RegMed/Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Q1/21 LPS Results … 30 reported to date:  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

• CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Ultragenyx (RARE), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) to name 5 of the 21 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), AxoGen (AXGN), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) to name 5 of the 11 declining of the 35 covered

Key metrics:

• Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 21-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the volume of 3 of 11-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

• Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.33% (SAGE) to +12.24% (AGTC) while the 11-downside ranges from -0.28% (ADVM) to -12.42% (BSTG);

Tuesday’s (10 of 21) incliners:

• CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.444 after Monday’s +$2.58);
• Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.69 after Monday’s -$0.36);
• BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.29 after Monday’s +$0.82);
• Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.14 after Monday’s -$0.59);
• Global Blood therapeutics (GBT +$0.98 after Monday’s +$0.13);
• uniQure NV (QURE +$0.86 after Monday’s -$0.73);
• bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.76 after Monday’s -$0.41);
• Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.70 after Monday’s -$1.40);
• Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.53);
• Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.47);

Tuesday’s (11 of 11) decliners:

• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.74 after Monday’s +$0.19);
• AxoGen (AXGN -$0.70 after Monday’s -$0.39);
• Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.53 after Monday’s +$1.87);
• Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.45 after Monday’s -$0.92);
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.33 after Monday’s -$0.35);
• Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.20);
• Biostage (BSTG -$0.16 after Monday’s +$0.15);
• MiMedx (MDXG -$0.16 after Monday’s -$0.27);
• Sangamo therapeutics (SGMO -$0.07);
• Mesoblast MESO -$0.04 after Monday’s +$0.23);
• Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.01)

Closing 2 – Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS), ReNeuron (RENE.L) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

COVID-19 updates:

• Covid case counts are declining by 5% or more in nearly every U.S. state as nationwide level of infections and deaths continue their downward trends. About 1.8 million vaccinations are being done in the U.S. each day, on average, and 47.5% of the population has received at least one vaccine dose.

Tuesday’s COVID Data Tracker <Million>:

• Cases: 32.795 M
• Death rate totaled 583,596 - dipping <Johns Hopkins University>
• Vaccinations:  60%

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

• Tuesday, the IBB closed up +0.36% and XBI closed up +0.43%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

• Tuesday was up +1.62 points or +8.22% at 21.34

Upside volume: low

• Tuesday: 3 out of the 21-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume: low

• Tuesday: 3 out of the 11-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: LOW % with limited pricing drops as upside maintains

• Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.33% (SAGE) to +12.24% (AGTC) while the 11-downside ranges from -0.28% (ADVM) to -12.42% (BSTG);

May, second month of Q2/21:

Tuesday closed positive with 21 advancers, 11 decliners, 2 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (5/17) closed negative with 14 advancers, 18 decliners, 2 flat and 1 acquired

The BOTTOM LINE: I welcome the rush to the upside after yesterday, Monday ... however, what will be sustainable?

Q1 earnings season is wrapping up and my reaction to earnings LPS (loss-per-share) results reveals more than some skepticism that Q1 losses provide a reason for additional forward-looking less than optimistic and more pessimism through the mid-year.”

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

My time frame of measurement is Friday to Friday and been proved right again, don’t get complacent …

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.