May 21, 2021 6:17pm

As I had stated this a.m.” new highs and I say bye cutting some positions” – its’s good to be on target

Pre-open indication performance: 5 HITs and 3 MISS

If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or numbers (which don’t lie) in a volatile climate, RMi defines the rigors of share pricing! My comments distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

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The Dow closed UP +123.69 points (+0.36%); the S&P closed DOWN -3.26 points (-0.08%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -64.75 points (-0.48%)

 

Henry’omics, stats and more:

The Dow flared, the S&P slipped and the Nasdaq dived as the week ended.

As the week ended, the S&P 500 fell 0.4% to register for its first back-to-back weekly losses since February, the dipped 0.5%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.3%, breaking a four-week losing streak.

 

Data Docket: U.S. manufacturing activity that surged to a record high this month. The IHS Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index jumped to an all-time high of 61.5 in May from 60.5 in April.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: new highs and I say bye cutting some positions. A new pandemic-low in jobless claims helped sentiment but, will it assist sustainability?” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11921

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Friday opened positive at 20/13, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 19/13, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative at 14/18, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened positive at 27/5, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 30/3, 1 acquired, closing positive at 28/5, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 5/28, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 6/28, 1 acquired, closing negative at 8/27 and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened positive at 19/12, 3 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 28/4, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing positive at 21/11, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened negative at 6/26, 2 flat and 1 acquired, flipped positive at the mid-day to 62111, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative at 14/18, 2 flats and 1 acquired;

 

Pre-open indication results:  5 HITs < Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.04), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.35), SELL, take some profit: Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.97), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.60), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.08)> and 3 MISS < Maintain SELL: Biostage (BSTG +$0.02 at $1.30 with 299 shares traded – “pumped and promoted”); SELL: Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.46), bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.83)

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Q1/21 LPS Results … to date: https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • bluebird bio (BLUE), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), MiMedx (MDXG), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) to name 5 of the 14 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), uniQure NV (QURE), Editas Medicine (EDIT) to name 5 of the 18 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 14-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the volume of 0 of 18-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 14-upside were +0.16% (GBT) to +8.12% (VYGR) while the 18-downside ranges from -0.03% (ALNY) to -4.45% (FATE);

 

Friday’s (14 of 14) incliners:

  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.83 after Thursday’s +$1.29, Wednesday’s -$1.24, Tuesday’s +$0.76 and Monday’s -$0.41);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.46);
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.32 after Thursday’s -$0.45 – management shuffle);
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.28 after Thursday’s -$0.09, Wednesday’s +$0.44, Tuesday’s -$0.16 and Monday’s -$0.27);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.27 after Thursday’s +$2.61 and Wednesday’s -$1.46);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.22);
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.19);
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.13);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.06 after Thursday’s +$1.31, Wednesday’s -$0.86, Tuesday’s +$0.98 and Monday’s +$0.13);
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.05);
  • Biostage (BSTG =$0.02);
  • Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS +$0.02 after Thursday’s -$0.01);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.02);
  • Athersys (ATHX +$0.01);

Friday’s (10 of 18) decliners:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$4.50 after Thursday’s +$3.22, Wednesday’s -$2.81, Tuesday’s +$1.14 and Monday’s -$0.59);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$3.44 after Thursday’s +$1.93, Wednesday’s -$2.71, Tuesday’s +$1.69 and Monday’s -$0.36);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.08 after Thursday’s +$7.09, Wednesday’s -$1.88, Tuesday’s +$3.44 and Monday’s +$2.58);
  • Editas medicine (EDIT -$0.97);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.75 after Thursday’s +$1.91, Wednesday’s +$0.22, Tuesday’s +$0.86 after Monday’s -$0.73);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.60 after Thursday’s -$0.40, Wednesday’s -$3.11, Tuesday’s -$0.33 and Monday’s -$0.35);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.43);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.41 after Thursday’s +$1.48);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.41);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.35);

Closing 2 – Verastem (VSTM), ReNeuron (RENE.L) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

COVID-19 updates:

  • The U.S. is reporting an average of fewer than 30,000 new Covid cases per day for the first time in nearly a year. Roughly 1.8 million vaccinations have been reported on average each day over the past week, and 48% of the population has received at least one dose.

Wednesday’s COVID Data Tracker <Million>:

  • Cases: 32.85 M 
  • Death rate totaled 584,975 - dipping <Johns Hopkins University>
  • Vaccinations:  60.5%

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed down -0.53% and XBI closed down -0.71%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed UP +2.03% and XBI closed up +2.10%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -0.92% and XBI closed down -1.75%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +0.36% and XBI closed up +0.43%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +0.21% and XBI closed down -0.23%

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.52 points or -2.52% at 20.15
  • Thursday was down -1.510. points or -6.81% at 20.67
  • Wednesday was up +0.84 points or +3.94% at 22.18
  • Tuesday was up +1.62points or +8.22% at 21.34
  • Monday was up +0.91 points or +4.84% at 19.72

 

Upside volume: low

  • Friday: 1 out of the 14-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 0 out of the 28-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 1 out of the 7-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 3 out of the 21-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 14-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Downside volume: low

  • Friday: 0 out of the 18-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 1 out of the 5-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 2 out of the 27-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 3 out of the 11-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 1 out of the 18-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: LOW % with limited pricing drops as upside maintains

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 14-upside were +0.16% (GBT) to +8.12% (VYGR) while the 18-downside ranges from -0.03% (ALNY) to -4.45% (FATE);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 28-upside were +0.38% (AXGN) to +6.41% (CRSP) while the 5-downside ranges from -0.62% (NTLA) to -10.25% (VYGR);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 7-upside were +0.49% (VCEL) to +14.19% (BSTG) while the 27-downside ranges from -0.16% (ALNY) to -6.45% (BLCM);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.33% (SAGE) to +12.24% (AGTC) while the 11-downside ranges from -0.28% (ADVM) to -12.42% (BSTG);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 14-upside were +0.14% (ALNY) to +13.04% (BSTG) while the 18-downside ranges from -0.31% (FIXX) to -4.78% (BLCM);

 

May, second month of Q2/21:

Friday closed negative with 14 advancers, 18 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 28 advancers, 5 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 7 advancers, 27 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 21 advancers, 11 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Monday (5/17) closed negative with 14 advancers, 18 decliners, 2 flat and 1 acquired

Friday closed positive with 29 advancers, 3 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 8 advancers, 25 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 10 advancers, 23 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (5/10) closed negative with 3 advancers, 30 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Friday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 12 advancers, 22 decliners and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 12 advancers, 23 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 2 advancers, 32 decliners and 1 acquired

Monday (5/3) closed negative with 9 advancers, 23 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Expect the sector rotation trades to continue to play out.

Back on the merry-go-round of share price as sentiment turns the downward slide versus yesterday’s uplift.

The Nasdaq finished Friday quitting a four (4) week losing streak as investors continue to rotate taking a big hit on inflation worries.

Key thematic, investors have to change their mindset and understand that the cell and gene therapy sector is going to continue to be a short-term trade or play.

Q1 earnings season is wrapping up and my reaction to earnings LPS (loss-per-share) results reveals more than some skepticism that Q1 losses provide a reason for additional forward-looking less than optimistic and more pessimism through the mid-year.”

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

My time frame of measurement remains Friday to Friday and has been proved right again, don’t get complacent …

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.