RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: sector needs a blue pill to increase its confidence

May 25, 2021 6:21pm

It's a need you get when everyone sold into negative sentiment that seems like a delusion yet, a set-up for the oversold to “pose” for gain

Pre-open indication performance: 1 HIT and 2 MISS

If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or numbers (which don’t lie) in a volatile climate, RMi defines the rigors of share pricing! My comments distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

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The Dow closed DOWN -81.52 points (-0.24%); the S&P closed DOWN -8.92 points (-0.21%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -4 points (-0.03%)

Henry’omics:

Indexes dribble downward on Tuesday with a cell and gene therapy sector pummeled after yesterday’s thumping, as concerns over continued sentiment reflux rose but, does set the stage for the oversold to be recognized.

But indexes overall made small price moves and remained in their current price trends.

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “what’s up – market anxiety” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11926

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

• Tuesday opened positive at 23/9, 2 flat and 1 acquired, flipped negative before the mid-day to 13/19, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative at 10/23, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
• Monday opened positive at 17/15, 2 flat and 1 acquired, flipped negative by the mid-day to 8/25, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 9/23, 2 flats and 1 acquired;

Pre-open indication results:  1 HITs <Maintain SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.00 at $1.30 with 358 shares traded); > and 2 MISS < bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.08), Pluristem (PSTI -$0.16)>

RegMed/Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Q1/21 LPS Results … to date: https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

• ReNeuron (RENE.L), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Verastem (VSTM), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Vericel (VCEL), Homology Medicine (FIXX), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) to name 10 of the 10 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Ultragenyx (RARE), Regenxbio (RGNX), uniQure NV (QURE), AxoGen (AXGN), to name 5 of the 23 declining of the 35 covered

Key metrics:

• Sector volume was LOW with 0 of the 10-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the volume of 5 of 23-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

• Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 10-upside were +0.23% (VCEL) to +3.07% (NTLA) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.19% (CLLS) to -4.21% (PSTI);

Tuesday’s (10 of 10) incliners:

• ReNeuron (RENE.L +$3.00);
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.06 after Monday’s +$3.52);
• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.12);
• Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.89);
• Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.71 after Monday’s +$0.22);
• CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.71 after Monday’s +$0.03);
• Vericel (VCEL +$0.12 after Monday’s +$0.11);
• Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.07 after Monday’s -$0.16);
• Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS +$0.02);
• Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.01 after Monday’s +$0.02);

Tuesday’s (10 of 23) decliners:

• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$2.83 after Monday’s -$3.00);
• Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.76);
• Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.78);
• uniQure NV (QURE -$0.76);
• AxoGen (AXGN -$0.47 after Monday’s +$0.27);
• Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.36 after Monday’s +$0.04);
• BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.32 after Monday’s -$1.14);
• Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.25);
• Sangamo therapeutics (SGMO -$0.25);
• Pluristem (PSTI -$0.16 after Monday’s -$0.11);

Closing 1 – Biostage (BSTG) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

COVID-19 updates:

• The seven-day average of daily Covid cases in the U.S. is below 25,000 for the first time since June 19, 2020, as the pace of new infections continues a downward trend.

Tuesday’s COVID Data Tracker <Million>:

• Cases: 32.96 M
• Death rate totaled 587,830 - dipping <Johns Hopkins University>
• Vaccinations (at least one):  61.6%

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

• Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.51% and XBI closed down -1.26%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

• Tuesday was up +0.44 points or +2.39% at 18.84

Upside volume: low

• Tuesday: 0 out of the10-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume: low

• Tuesday: 5 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: LOW % with limited pricing drops as upside maintains

• Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 10-upside were +0.23% (VCEL) to +3.07% (NTLA) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.19% (CLLS) to -4.21% (PSTI);

May, second month of Q2/21:

Tuesday closed negative with 10 advancers, 23 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (5/24) closed negative with 9 advancers, 23 decliners, 2 flat and 1 acquired

The BOTTOM LINE: As I had stated on Friday, “Expect the sector rotation trades to continue to play out.”

And it did again on Monday, choppy/sideways trend will continue, and the sector will experience … more sell-off scares along the way.

Q1 earnings season is wrapping up and my reaction to earnings LPS (loss-per-share) results reveals more than some skepticism that Q1 losses provide a reason for additional forward-looking less than optimistic and more pessimism through the mid-year.”

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

My time frame of measurement remains Friday to Friday and has been proved right again, don’t get complacent …

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.