June 4, 2021 5:50pm

Pre-open indications: 2 HITs and 4 MISS

My comments are important in trying to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

A week of sentiment mood swings in review …

If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or numbers (which don’t lie) in a volatile climate, RMi defines the rigors of share pricing! My comments distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

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The Dow closed UP +179.35 points (+0.52%); the S&P closed UP +37.04 points (+0.88%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +199.98 points (+1.47%)

 

Henry’omics:

U.S. stocks climbed on Friday as the key May jobs report showed solid gains, boosting confidence in the economic comeback.

Indexes all registered modest gains for the week as the Dow advanced ++0.07%, the S&P 500 0.6%, for their second straight positive week while the Nasdaq gained 0.5% this week for its third winning week in a row.

Like I’ve said, a roller-coaster week luckily the flip was in … for the cell and gene therapy sector … a story to be told!

  • Friday, the oversold were “recognized” by the algorithms to close in the opposite direction – UP of the free-flowing week!
  • Thursday, a hole sprung in the dike of sector share pricing, with a negative advance/decline line of 10/22, 2 flats and 1 acquired in the cell and gene therapy sector closing seriously negative;
  • Wednesday, a stake was driven into the heart of the sector with a negative advance/decline line of 10/23 with the sector closing seriously downward;
  • Tuesday opened positive at 18/15, 1 flat and 1 acquired, strayed neutral by the mid-day to 16/16, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing positive at 17/16, 1 flat and 1 acquired.
  • Monday was a market holiday

Reiterating the view of the month of May, last week, there were 3 negative sector closes of five sessions (beginning 5/24) after the previous week’s) beginning 5/17) two negative closes of five sessions following the mid-month (5/10) four negative closes of five sessions as Monday began the month (5/3) with a negative close. Not a good track record as the sector barely closed positive on the first day, Tuesday and closed negative in the second session of June.

June is historically a weak month for stocks, but Instinet points out that the S&P 500 has had a better track record recently, gaining every June since 2016.

 

Data Docket: The U.S. economy added 559,000 jobs in May, the Labor Department said on Friday. The number came in slightly lower than an estimate of 671,000, but still showed a healthy rebound in the labor market as it’s up from a disappointing 266,000 payrolls added in April. The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% from 6.1%, which was better than the estimate of 5.9%.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “trends and trajectories are just too speculative” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11941

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Friday opened positive at 24/16, 3 flats and 1 acquired, stayed positive by the mid-day to 28/5, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing positive at 25/8, 1 flat and 1 acquired
  • Thursday opened negative at 13/28, 13 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative by the mid-day to 10/22, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative at 7/26, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 14/19, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative by the mid-day to 4/30 and 1 acquired, closing negative at 10/23, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened positive at 18/15, 1 flat and 1 acquired, strayed neutral by the mid-day to 16/16, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing positive at 17/16, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: The “pump and promote” is BACK, working as 800 shares traded pumping the stock +$0.19 to $1.30 after Thursday’s 3528 shares traded with no pricing advantage after Wednesday’s flat at $1.11 with 5,673 shares were traded and the stock was down -$0.11 to $1.11; WHO is buying this “zombie”?

 

Pre-open Indications: 2 HITs < CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.46), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.31), and 4 MISS <Biostage (BSTG +$0.19), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.02), Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.02), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.18)>

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Q1/21 LPS Results … MESO added: https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), ReNeuron (RENE.L) to name 5 of the 25 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE) – 3rdagain, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Adverum Biosciences (ADVM), Homology Medicine (FIXX), Voyager therapeutics (VYGR), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) to name 8 of the 8 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 25-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the volume of 0 of 8-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 25-upside were +0.25% (AGTC) to +17.12% (BSTG) while the 8-downside ranges from -0.28% (BCLI) to -2.31% (RARE);

 

Friday’s (10 of 25) incliners:

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$5.54 after Thursday’s -$1.69, Wednesday’s -$3.52 and Tuesday’s -$4.14);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP+$3.46 after Thursday’s -$4.91, Wednesday’s -$1.06 and Tuesday’s -$2.38);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.07);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.05 after Thursday’s -$1.52, Wednesday’s -$1.89 and Tuesday’s +$0.37);
  • ReNeuron (REN.L +$1.00 after Thursday’s +$2.40, Wednesday’s +$2.50 and Tuesday’s flat;
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.98 after Thursday’s -$0.74 and Wednesday’s -$1.03);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.88);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.74 after Thursday’s +$0.70, Wednesday’s +$0.19 and Tuesday’s -$1.23);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.73 after Thursday’s -$1.27, Wednesday’s -$0.95 and Tuesday’s -$1.21);
  • Pluristem (PSTI +$0.59);

Friday’s (8 of 8) decliners:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$2.18 after Thursday’s -$3.33, Wednesday’s -$2.13 and Tuesday’s -$1.88);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.69 after Thursday’s +$4.44, Wednesday’s -$1.43 and Tuesday’s +$2.29);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.18 after Thursday’s -$0.96, Wednesday’s -$1.06 and Tuesday’s -$0.51);
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.06 after Thursday’s +$0.01);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.02);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.02 after Thursday’s +$0.02);
  • Voyager therapeutics (VYGR -$0.02);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.01);

Closing flat: 1 – Athersys (ATHX) and 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

COVID-19 updates:

  • The number of hospitalizations related to Covid-19 among adolescents in the United States was about three times greater than hospitalizations linked to influenza over three recent flu seasons, according to a study published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Friday’s COVID Data Tracker <Million>:

  • Cases: 34.185 M
  • Death rate totaled 612,009
  • 63% of the U.S. population has received one dose or more.

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed up +1.42% and XBI closed down -0.00%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -0.13% and XBI closed down -0.38%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +0.12% and XBI closed up +0.62%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.69% and XBI closed down -1.29%

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -1.62 points or -8.98% at 16.42
  • Thursday was up +0.56 points or +3.20% at 18.04
  • Wednesday was down -0.42 points or -2.35% at 17.48
  • Tuesday was up +1.14 points or +6.80% at 17.90

 

Upside volume: low

  • Friday: 3 out of the 25-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 1 out of the 18-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 1 out of the 10-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 3 out of the 17-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Downside volume: low

  • Friday: 0 out of the 8-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 1 out of the 27-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 4 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 1 out of the 16-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: LOW % with limited pricing drops as upside maintains

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 25-upside were +0.25% (AGTC) to +17.12% (BSTG) while the 8-downside ranges from -0.28% (BCLI) to -2.31% (RARE);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 7-upside were +0.27% (SLDB) to +3.50% (QURE) while the 27-downside ranges from -0.25% (VSTM) to -5.97% (MESO);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 10-upside were +0.10% (BLUE) to +5.59% (BLCM) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.28% (BLFS) to -9.02% (BSTG);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 17-upside were +0.28% (BCLI) to +8.93% (BSTG) while the 16-downside ranges from -0.02% (VCEL) to -5.40% (FATE);

 

June, third month of Q2/21:

Friday closed positive with 25 advancers, 8 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 7 advancers, 26 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 10 advancers, 23 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday (6/1) closed positive with 17 advancers, 16 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: What changes, it might just pay to read … I haven’t been wrong, as I had stated “Expect the sector rotation trades to continue to play out.”

Today, the upside was recognized – it was in the cards!

Q1 earnings season is wrapping up and my reaction to earnings LPS (loss-per-share) results reveals more than some skepticism that Q1 losses provide a reason for additional forward-looking less than optimistic and more pessimism through the mid-year.”

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

My time frame of measurement remains Friday to Friday and has been proved right again, don’t get complacent …

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.