June 20, 2021 3:44pm

Witching Friday’s come and gladly go

Pre-open indications: 6 HITs and 2 MISS

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

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The Dow closed DOWN -533.37 points (-1.58%); the S&P closed DOWN -55.41 points (-1.31%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -130.97 points (-0.92%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes fell on Friday, with the Dow posting its worst weekly loss since October, as traders worried the Fed could start raising rates sooner than expected.

Friday also coincided with the quarterly “quadruple witching” in which options and futures on indexes and equities expire. This event may have contributed to more volatile trading during the session.

Pockets of the market most sensitive to the economic rebound led the sell-off this week

For the week, the 30-stock Dow lost 3.5%, the S&P 500 -1.9% and Nasdaq was down -0.2%.

More than a bit late from Friday, published Sunday – Maine called and I answered … very serene, hated to leave my brother.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “the witch is on the stick. Quadruple witching is usually accompanied by price volatility, as well as increased trading volume” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11961

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Friday opened negative at 12/21, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 13/20, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 15/18, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened negative at 13/18, 3 flats and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 21/10, 3 flats and 1 acquired, closing positive at 23/10, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 16/17, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 5/28, 1 flat, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 10/22, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 8/26 and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 3/29, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative at 5/28, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened positive at 26/7, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 19/14, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing positive at 18/14, 2 flats and 1 acquired;

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: The “pump” is STILL promoting, Friday closed flat at $1.21 with 333 shares traded after Thursday’s volume of 735 shares dropping the price -$0.09 to $1.21 after Wednesday 200 shares drove the price +$0.089 to $1.30 after Tuesday’s 10,703 shares traded with the pricing DROPPED to -$0.039 to $1.21 after Monday’s 2,305 shares traded with NO gain … after last Friday’s 1,395 shares traded moving up +$0.04 to $1.25.  WHO is buying this “zombie”?

 

Pre-open Indications: 6 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.00), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.04), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.56), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.28), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$3.98), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.58)> and 2 MISS < Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.06), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.16)>   

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Q1/21 LPS Results: https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) - again, Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) – again, Vericel (VCEL) to name 5 of the 15 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE), uniQure NV (QURE), Ultragenyx (RARE) – again, Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY) - again, Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) to name 5 of the 18 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume INCREASED from the normal low with 10 of the 15-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the volume of 17 of 18-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 15-upside were +0.07% (BLFS) to +5.11% (RENE.L) while the 18-downside ranges from -0.21% (VSTM) to -4.73% (FATE);

 

Friday’s (10 of 15) incliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$6.00);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.64 after Thursday’s +$3.95 and Wednesday’s +$1.80);
  • Sage therapeutics (SAGE +$1.71 after dramatic falls);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.56 after Thursday’s +$3.36, Wednesday’s +$0.29, Tuesday’s -$5.14 and Monday’s +$3.29);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.37 after Thursday’s +$1.44 and Wednesday’s +$2.07);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.31 after Thursday’s +$0.35, Wednesday’s +$0.45, Tuesday’s -$1.11 and Monday’s -$0.14);
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.24 after Thursday’s +$0.61 and Wednesday’s +$0.27);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.17);
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.17);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.14 after Thursday’s -$0.15);

Friday’s (10 of 18) decliners:

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$3.98 after Thursday’s +$1.56, Wednesday’s -$4.14, Tuesday’s -$3.18 and Monday’s +$0.22);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$1.63);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.06 after Thursday’s -$1.80, Wednesday’s -$2.26, Tuesday’s -$2.84 and Monday’s +$1.17);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.82 after Thursday’s -$0.38);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.58 after Thursday’s -$2.74);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.45 after Thursday’s -$1.17, Wednesday’s -$1.29, Tuesday’s -$0.73 and Monday’s -$0.36);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.40);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.28 after Thursday’s +$1.16);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.27 after Thursday’s +$0.41, Wednesday’s -$0.35, Tuesday’s -$0.74 and Monday’s +$0.62);
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.16 after Thursday’s -$0.17, Wednesday’s +$0.12 and Tuesday’s +$0.01);

Closing flat - 1 – Biostage (BSTG) and 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed down -0.18% and XBI closed down -0.60%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +0.49% and XBI closed up +0.79%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -0.72% and XBI closed up +0.12%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -1.48% and XBI closed down -2.38%
  • Monday, the IBB closed down -0.17% and XBI closed up +0.61%

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +2.95 points or +16.62% at 20.70
  • Thursday was down -0.40 points or -2.20% at 17.75
  • Wednesday was up +1.13points or +6.64% at 18.15
  • Tuesday was up +0.63 points or +3.84% at 17.02
  • Monday was up +0.74 points or4.73% at 16.38

 

Upside volume: 

  • Friday: 10 out of the 15-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Thursday: 6 out of the 23-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Wednesday: 3 out of the 10-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 2 out of the 5-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 4 out of the 18-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Downside volume:

  • Friday: 17 out of the 18-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 5 out of the 10-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 6 out of the 22-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 9 out of the 28-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 5 out of the 14-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 15-upside were +0.07% (BLFS) to +5.11% (RENE.L) while the 18-downside ranges from -0.21% (VSTM) to -4.73% (FATE);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 23-upside were +0.17% (QURE) to +6.56% (BLFS) while the 10-downside ranges from -1.07% (RGNX) to -6.92% (BSTG);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 10-upside were +0.08% (BLFS) to +7.43% (BSTG) while the 22-downside ranges from -0.06% (QURE) to -10.61% (NTLA);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 5-upside were +0.21% (VYGR) to +2.51% (BLFS) while the 28-downside ranges from –0.10% (ALNY) to -19.30% (SAGE);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 18-upside were +0.25% (FATE) to +5.11% (VSTM) while the 14-downside ranges from –0.09% (SGMO) to -7.90% (SAGE);

 

June, third month of Q2/21:

Friday closed negative with 15 advancers, 18 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 23 advancers, 10 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday negative with 10 advancers, 22 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 5 advancers, 28 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

 

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The sector was lucky since Wednesday and Thursday cleaned-up many of the “positions”.

I’m in for the “ride” however, I’m STILL expecting the sector rotation trades to continue to play out.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

Don’t get complacent …

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.