Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: fear while staring down the cell and gene therapy sector abyss

July 7, 2021 5:53pm

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: the share price is being “pumped” so BSTG tried to execute the remaining $2.00 very private placement warrants and add yet another layer of unregistered stock. Today, 15,903 shares traded (3-month average =1,917 shares) from WHOM – as if we didn’t know?

Pre-open indications: 3 HITs and 3 MISS <buying the dip failed>

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

It takes courage to not be discouraged by sector volatility!

Subscription is coming in July, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!

The Dow closed UP +104.42 points (+0.30%); the S&P closed UP +14.59 points (+0.34%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +1.42 points (+0.01%)

Henry’omics:

Indexes fluctuated up and down from record levels on Wednesday, giving just about all gains in the cell and gene therapy sector. The Nasdaq dived -0.3% and then jived +0.01% after hitting a fresh record shortly after the open.

Data Docket: The Fed’s policymaking group kept its benchmark rate anchored in a range between 0% and 0.25%. That was according to market expectations. However, at his post-meeting news conference, Chairman Powell indicated that committee members had held their first discussions about reducing the pace of bond purchases the central bank makes each month. As things stand now, the Fed is buying at least $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. <CNBC>

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “which way to the upside, it’s a crooked route” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11987

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

Wednesday opened negative at 4/30, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 9/25 and 1 acquired, closing negative 8/25, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
Tuesday opened negative at 1/30, 3 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 7/27 and 1 acquired, closing negative 7/26, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
Monday was a holiday,
Friday opened negative at 3/30, 1 flat and 1 acquired stayed negative at the mid-day at 7/27, and 1 acquired, closing negative at 9/24, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: The “pump” is STILL promoting on Wednesday with 15,903 shares traded to “push/promote” the exercise of warrants to unregistered shares got “stymied” dropping the prices -$0.23 to $1.27 but, failure to re-boost the share pricing after Tuesday’s 5,072 shares as BSTG tries to exercise the remaining private placement warrants to add more unregistered shares to the “outstanding” …

After trading Friday as 1,974 shares were expended to close -$0.00 TO CLOSE AT $1.35, Thursday with 408 shares “appearing” to boost the share price +$0.095 to $1.35 after Wednesday’s -$0.005 (was -$0.11) to $1.25 with 3,241 shares traded and last Tuesday as 1,860 shares “appeared” as the share price was sinking -$0.07 to lift it +$0.03 … WHO is buying this “zombie pig” as IF we didn’t know? After yet another warrant execution and ever-increasing UN-REGIGISTERED share DILUTION with the potential THREAT is of de-listing if the share price was to trade without the “pump” below $1.00?

Pre-open Indications: 3 HITs < Maintaining SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.23); SELL: Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.37) and 3 MISS < BUY: Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.04), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$5.81), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$2.44), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$4.43),

RegMed/Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Q1/21 LPS Results: https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

Vericel (VCEL) - again, BioLife Solutions (BLFS) - again, Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY), bluebird bio (BLUE) - a surprise, Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM), Mesoblast (MESO), Sage therapeutics (SAGE) to name 8 of the 8 inclining of the 35

Hammered in today’s market:

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) - again, Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) – another again, ReNeuron (RENE.L), Editas Medicine (EDIT) – another again, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) to name 5 of the 25 declining of the 35 covered

Key Metrics:

Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 8-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 4 of 25-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 8-upside were +0.02% (SAGE) to +2.87% (VCEL) while the 25-downside ranges from -0.19% (AXGN) to -15.33% (BSTG);

Wednesday’s (8 of 8) incliners: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.95 after Friday’s +$1.68);

Vericel (VCEL +$1.55 after Tuesday’s +$2.78);
BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.33 after Tuesday’s +$1.40);
Chinook therapeutics (KDNY +$0.30);
bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.09);
Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.06 after Tuesday’s -$0.95);
Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.020;
Mesoblast (MESO +$0.01);
Sage therapeutics (SAGE +$0.01 after Tuesday’s -$1.39);

Wednesday’s (10 of 25) decliners:

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$5.81 after Tuesday’s -$7.78);
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$4.43 after Tuesday’s -$14.26);
ReNeuron (RENE.L -$2.50 after Monday’s flat);
Editas Medicine (EDIT -$2.44 after Tuesday’s -$6.76);
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.79);
Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.79 after Tuesday’s -$2.79);
Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.08 after Tuesday’s -$5.41);
uniQure NV (QURE -$0.98 after Tuesday’s -$1.06);
Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.80 after Tuesday’s -$1.30);
Cellectis DSA (CLLS -$0.52);

Closing 1 – Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

Wednesday, the IBB closed down -0.88% and XBI closed down -1.68%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

Wednesday was down -0.24 points or -1.46% at 16.20

Upside volume:

Wednesday: 3 out of the 8-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

Wednesday: 4 out of the 25-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 8-upside were +0.02% (SAGE) to +2.87% (VCEL) while the 25-downside ranges from -0.19% (AXGN) to -15.33% (BSTG);

July, first month of Q3/21:

Wednesday closed negative with 8 advancers, 25 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 7 advancers, 26 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Friday closed negative with 9 advancers, 24 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Thursday (7/1) closed positive with 25 advancers, 8 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

The BOTTOM LINE: What has changed, the sector was torn from any upside from profiteering on fears of risk, clinical news and market forces.

I expect smaller and choppier gains, brace for more volatility.

Next few months – unless, news of clinical results or an M&A after a choppy and marginal performance in the first half.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

July starts on a positive note, and be careful of a long, hot, volatile summer.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

Do you have an opinion you would like to share with us? We would like to hear from you.

Please e-mail us at hwm@regmedinvestors.com.

Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

RegMed Investors (RMi) or Regmedinvestors.com content is the intellectual property of Henry McCusker. Any copying, republication or redistribution of RMI’s content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Scimitar; who also shall not be liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. For additional information on other Scimitar media services or reposting please email hwm@regmedinvestors.com.

The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should be construed as guidance in RMi reviews.

The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.