July 8, 2021 5:15pm

Sensing some cracks and leaks in “our” universe

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: BSTG tried to execute the remaining $2.00 very private placement warrants and add yet another layer of unregistered stock. Today, 210 shares traded after Wednesday’s 15,903 shares traded (3-month average =2,153 shares) from WHOM – as if we didn’t know?

Pre-open indications: 4 HITs and 2 MISS

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

It takes courage to not be discouraged by sector volatility!

The Dow closed DOWN -259.86 points (-0.75%); the S&P closed DOWN -37.31 points (-0.86%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -105.28 points (-0.72%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes declined as cell and gene therapy stocks rose and fell riding the algorithmic roller-coaster …

The Cboe Volatility index, or ‘VIX,’ surged above the key 20 level Thursday and then retreated to the 19 level.

Words describing the session, “recovery momentum concerns fuel broad sell-off” or “retreating from record closing highs in a broad sell-off driven by uncertainties surrounding the pace of the U.S. economic recovery.”

 

Data Docket: Initial jobless claims, week ended July 3: 373,000 vs. 350,000 expected and a revised 371,000 during prior week.  Continuing claims, week ended June 26: 3.339 million vs. 3.350 million expected and a revised 3.484 million during prior week

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “still staring into the abyss” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11989

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Thursday opened negative at 2/31, 1 flat and 1 acquired, popped positive at the mid-day to 20/14 and 1 acquired, closing barely positive 17/16, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: The “pump” is STILL promoting on Thursday with 210 shares traded after Wednesday with 15,903 shares traded to “push/promote” the exercise of warrants to add more unregistered shares to the “outstanding” …

 

Pre-open Indications: 4 HITs <Profiting by Sale: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.52), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.52), Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.10), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.35)> and 2 MISS < Maintaining SELL: Biostage (BSTG +$0.23); Ultragenyx (RARE +$3.27)>

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Q1/21 LPS Results: https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Ultragenyx (RARE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) - again to name 5 of the 17 inclining of the 35

Hammered in today’s market:

  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS), ReNeuron (RENE.L) - again, AxoGen (AXGN), Vericel (VCEL), bluebird bio (BLUE) to name 5 of the 16 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key Metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 17-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 4 of 16-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 17-upside were +0.66% (MESO) to +18.11% (BSTG) while the 16-downside ranges from -0.05% (ALNY) to -6.21% (MDXG);

 

Thursday’s (10 of 17) incliners:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$7.71 after Wednesday’s -$4.43 and Tuesday’s -$14.26);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$3.27 after Wednesday’s -$1.79 and Tuesday’s -$2.79);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.52 after Wednesday’s +$5.81 and Tuesday’s -$7.78);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.90 after Wednesday’s -$1.08 and Tuesday’s -$5.41);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.63 after Wednesday’s +$0.06 and Tuesday’s -$0.95);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.52 after Wednesday’s -$2.44 and Tuesday’s -$6.76);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.43 after Wednesday’s +$0.30);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.35 after Wednesday’s -$0.80 and Tuesday’s -$1.30);
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR
  • Biostage (BSTG +$0.23)

Thursday’s (10 of 16) decliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$2.00 after Wednesday’s -$2.50 and Tuesday’s flat);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.62 after Wednesday’s +$1.33 and Tuesday’s +$1.40);
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$1.16);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.02 after Wednesday’s +$1.55 and Tuesday’s +$2.78);
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.76);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.69 after Wednesday’s +$0.09);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.41 after Wednesday’s -$0.98 and Tuesday’s -$1.06);
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.35);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.18 after Wednesday’s +$0.01 and Tuesday’s -$1.39);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.17);

Closing 1 – Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +0.20% and XBI closed up +0.48%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was up +2.80 points or +17.28% at 19

Upside volume:

  • Thursday: 1 out of the 17-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

  • Thursday: 4 out of the 16-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 17-upside were +0.66% (MESO) to +18.11% (BSTG) while the 16-downside ranges from -0.05% (ALNY) to -6.21% (MDXG);

 

July, first month of Q3/21:

Thursday closed barely positive with 17 advancers, 16 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Back on the roller-coaster … what has changed, the sector was torn from any upside from profiteering on fears of risk, clinical news and market forces.

I expect smaller and choppier gains, brace for more volatility.

Next few months – unless, news of clinical results or an M&A after a choppy and marginal performance in the first half.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

July starts on a positive note, and be careful of a long, hot, volatile summer.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.