July 14, 2021 5:03pm

Fundamentals are broken and expectation is in the toilet while Biostage (BSTG) pumps its way to exercise outstanding warrants – their only access to raise capital

Pre-open indications: 1 HITs and 1 MISS

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

It takes courage to not be discouraged by sector volatility

 

The Dow closed UP +44.44 points (+0.13%); the S&P closed up +5.09 points (+0.12%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN – 32.70 points (-0.22%)

 

Henry’omics:

The Dow and the S&P closed up as the Nasdaq dived as the cell and gene therapy sector crashed – again.

 

Data Docket: Powell said in his semiannual testimony before the House Committee on Financial Services that the central bank can wait before it starts to ease its bond purchases despite surging inflation readings. The Fed chair said he still expects inflation to moderate.

  • Powell says economy 'a ways off' from bond taper …
  • U.S. monetary policy will offer "powerful support" to the economy "until the recovery is complete," Powell told a congressional hearing in remarks that portrayed a recent jump in inflation as temporary and focused on the need for continued job growth.
  • “At our June meeting, the Committee discussed the economy’s progress toward our goals since we adopted our asset purchase guidance last December. While reaching the standard of ‘substantial further progress’ is still a way off, participants expect that progress will continue,” Powell said.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “caution as jittery sentiment wraps markets yet our sector could feel an oversold jolt. The crystal ball has gone dark, indications are all but blank and the pick-up stock game is scattered” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11997  

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Wednesday opened negative at 5/26, 3 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 7/27 and 1 acquired, closing negative 3/31 and 1 acquired;

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: The “pump” is STILL promoting on Wednesday as 996 shares traded with a +$0.06 upside after Tuesday with 1,125 shares traded, up +$0.14 to $1.64 after Monday with 2,628 shares traded with a NEGATIVE -$0.00 upside, Friday as 1060 shares traded with the share price closing FLAT, Thursday with 210 shares traded and last Wednesday with 15,903 shares traded to “push/promote” the exercise of warrants to add more unregistered shares to the “outstanding” … WHO and WHOM are trading – as if we didn’t know?

 

Pre-open Indications: 1 HIT <SELL: Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.87) and 1 MISS < Maintaining SELL: Biostage (BSTG +$0.06)>

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Q1/21 LPS Results: https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • MiMedx (MDXG), Biostage (BSTG – pumped, Pluristem (PSTI) to name 3 of the 3 inclining of the 35

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) – another again, Fate Therapeutics (FATE) – another again, Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) -another again, Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) to name 5 of the 31 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key Metrics:

  • Sector volume was NADA with 0 of the 3-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 2 of 31-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 3-upside were +0.27% (PSTI) to +3.64% (BSTG) while the 31-downside ranges from -0.64% (SLDB) to -7.08% (PGEN);

 

Wednesday’s (3 of 3) incliners:

  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.25);
  • Biostage (BSTG +$0.06 after Tuesday’s +$0.14 after Monday’s -$0.00);
  • Pluristem (PSTI +$0.01);

Wednesday’s (10 of 31) decliners:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$5.29 after Tuesday’s -$1.40 and Monday’s +$0.29);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$5.24 after Tuesday’s -$5.09 and Monday’s -$3.58);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$4.25 after Tuesday’s -$4.48 and Monday’s -$4.53);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.14 after Monday’s -$1.00);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$2.83 after Tuesday’s -$3.44 and Monday’s +$0.04);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$2.57 after Tuesday’s -$1.27 and Monday’s +$0.67);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$2.50 after Tuesday’s flat);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.36 after Tuesday’s -$4.78 and Monday’s -$4.97);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.54);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.10 after Tuesday’s -$0.93 after Monday’s -$1.58);

Closing - 1 –Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -1.27% and XBI closed down -2.78%

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -0.79 points or -4.61% at 16.33

 

Upside volume:

  • Wednesday: 0 out of the 3-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Downside volume:

  • Wednesday: 2 out of the 31-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 3-upside were +0.27% (PSTI) to +3.64% (BSTG) while the 31-downside ranges from -0.64% (SLDB) to -7.08% (PGEN);

 

July, first month of Q3/21:

Wednesday closed negative with 3 advancers, 31 decliners and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  What has changed -- back on the roller-coaster … and sentiment or any support is in the toilet!

The pace of growth for the 2nd half/21 will be hamstrung LPS (loss-per-share) without the usual insignificant company guidance however, keep an eye on “runways”.

I expect smaller and choppier gains, brace for more volatility.

The real issue is that Q2 earnings are going to “suck pound water”!

Next few months – unless, news of clinical results or an M&A after a choppy and marginal performance in the first half.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

July starts with five (5) negative closes and three (3) positive notes; be careful of a volatile summer.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.