July 15, 2021 5:28pm

Define the risks first and anticipate the earnings LPS (los-per-share) declines as “runways” will be the caveats as barely any news pervades the sector

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Is BSTG “flipping the bird” at regulators?

Pre-open indications: 4 HITs and 2 MISS

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

It takes courage to not be discouraged by sector volatility

 

The Dow closed UP +54.98 points (+0.16%); the S&P closed DOWN -14.27 points (-0.33%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN – 101.82 points (-0.70%)

 

Henry’omics:

The Dow popped; the S&P dived along with the Nasdaq as investors ignored the dips in the cell and gene therapy sector while those “longevity” equities drifted lower Thursday

The stock market rally came off Thursday's lows, but still seems troubled. The major indexes are just below record highs, while small caps continue to retreat, market breadth has narrowed. Most of all for active investors, recent breakouts and other buying opportunities have struggled or failed. <IBD>

The biggest question for investors is ... how long will this draught last?

 

Data Docket: New weekly jobless claims fell to the lowest level since March 2020, closing back in on pre-pandemic levels as the rate of new joblessness slowed further.

  • Initial jobless claims, week ended July 10: 360,000 vs. 350,000 expected and a revised 386,000 during prior week
  • Continuing claims, week ended July 3: 3.241 million vs. 3.300 million expected and a revised 3.367 million during prior week
  • A 16th month low

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “sector flounders with no news” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12001

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Thursday opened negative at 15/18, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 9/25 and 1 acquired, closing negative 8/21, 5 flats and 1 acquired;

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: The “pump” is STILL promoting on Thursday as 1,596 shares traded as with a close of -$0.01 after Wednesday with 996 shares traded a +$0.06 upside, Tuesday with 1,125 shares traded, up +$0.14 to $1.64, Monday with 2,628 shares traded with a NEGATIVE -$0.00 upside, Friday’s 1060 shares traded with the share price closing FLAT following Thursday’s 210 shares traded to “push/promote” the exercise of warrants to add more unregistered shares to the “outstanding” … WHO and WHOM are trading – as if we didn’t know? Is BSTG “flipping the bird” at regulators?

 

Pre-open Indications: 4 HITs < Maintaining SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.01); SELL: Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.26), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.09), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.96)> and 2 MISS < BUY: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.82), BUY: bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.23) >  

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), ReNeuron (RENE.L), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Vericel (VCEL), Pluristem (PSTI) – again, Precigen (PGEN), Verastem (VSTM), Ultragenyx (RARE) to name 8 of the 8 inclining of the 35

Hammered in today’s market:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) – yet, another again; Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) – yet, another again, BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Editas Medicine (EDIT) Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) to name 5 of the 21 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key Metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 8-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 5 of 21-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 8-upside were +0.01% (RARE) to +3.27% (PSTI) while the 21-downside ranges from -0.58% (BSTG) to -5.06% (BLCM);

 

Thursday’s (8 of 8) incliners:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.61 after Wednesday’s -$5.29, Tuesday’s -$1.40 and Monday’s +$0.29);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$0.50 after Wednesday’s -$2.50 and Tuesday’s flat);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.41 after Wednesday’s -$1.10, Tuesday’s -$0.93 and Monday’s -$1.58);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.12 after Wednesday’s -$1.54);
  • Pluristem (PSTI +$0.12 after Wednesday’s +$0.01);
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.03);
  • Verastem VSTM +$0.02);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.01 after Wednesday’s -$2.83, Tuesday’s -$3.44 and Monday’s +$0.04);

Thursday’s (10 of 21) decliners:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.21 after Wednesday’s -$5.24, Tuesday’s -$5.09 and Monday’s -$3.58);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.96 after Wednesday’s -$2.36, Tuesday’s -$4.78 and Monday’s -$4.97);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.16 after Wednesday’s -$2.57, Tuesday’s -$1.27 and Monday’s +$0.67);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.09);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.82 after Wednesday’s -$1.14, Monday’s -$1.00);
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.79);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.46 after Wednesday’s -$4.25, Tuesday’s -$4.48 and Monday’s -$4.53);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.45);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.400;
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.31);

Closing – 6 – Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO), Regenxbio (RGNX), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI), Athersys (ATHX), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) and 1 –Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +0.23% and XBI closed down -0.01%

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was up +0.68 points or +4.16% at 17.01

 

Upside volume:

  • Thursday: 1 out of the 8-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Downside volume:

  • Thursday: 5 out of the 21-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 8-upside were +0.01% (RARE) to +3.27% (PSTI) while the 21-downside ranges from -0.58% (BSTG) to -5.06% (BLCM);

 

 

 

July, first month of Q3/21:

Thursday closed negative with 8 advancers, 21 decliners, 5 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 3 advancers, 31 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 2 advancers, 31 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday closed negative with 11 advancers, 19 decliners, x flat and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  What has changed -- back on the roller-coaster … and sentiment or any support is in the toilet!

Yet, notice the significant decline of the XBI and the positive IBB … are we looking at a positive Friday?

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector. NO news has bake- in the decline of the sector.

The pace of growth for the 2nd half/21 will be hamstrung LPS (loss-per-share) without the usual insignificant company guidance however, keep an eye on “runways”.

I expect smaller and choppier gains, brace for more volatility.

The real issue is that Q2 earnings are going to “suck pound water”!

Next few months – unless, news of clinical results or an M&A after a choppy and marginal performance in the first half.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

July starts with five (5) negative closes and three (3) positive notes; be careful of a volatile summer.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.