July 16, 2021 5:23pm

The Advance/Decline (A/D) lines validate a sinking sentiment yet, again  

Pre-open indications: 4 HITs and s MISS

Week in review …

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

It takes courage to not be discouraged by sector volatility

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers!

 

The Dow closed DOWN -300.09 points (-0.86%); the S&P closed DOWN -32.92 points (-0.75%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -115.90 points (-0.80%)

 

Henry’omics:

U.S. stock indexes gave up their gains on Friday as a worse-than-expected consumer sentiment reading overshadowed strong retail sales numbers and earnings reports.

Although, the three averages are on track to close the week in red. The Dow is down -0.5%, the S&P 500 is -1% lower and the Nasdaq is -1.9% lower on the week.

Despite the week’s losses, the Dow is still up 13% for the year and sits just 1% from an all-time high. The S&P 500 is up 15% on the year and is about 1.4% below its record level.

While the cell and gene therapy sector opened positive, sank at the mid-day with all that back-and-forth to close negative after share pricing dissipation.

 

Data Docket: The U.S. consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan came in at 80.8 for the first half of July, down from 85.5 last month and worse than economists estimated, who projected an increase. The survey released Friday showed inflation expectations rising with consumers believing prices will increase 4.8% in the next year, the highest level since August 2008.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “wrapping a demoralizing share pricing week for the cell and gene therapy sector as trading drives the sector down, investors could be less willing to jump in until” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12004

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Friday opened positive at 22/11, 1 flat and 1 acquired, slipped negative at the mid-day to 14/19, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative 14/20 and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened negative at 15/18, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 9/25 and 1 acquired, closing negative 8/21, 5 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 5/26, 3 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 7/27 and 1 acquired, closing negative 3/31 and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 0/32, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 6/27, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative 2/31, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened negative at 5/27, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 6/27, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative 11/19, 4 flats and 1 acquired;

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: The “pump” is STILL promoting on Friday with a +$0.01 with 307 shares traded (bought by whom) after Thursday as 1,596 shares traded as with a close of -$0.01 after Wednesday with 996 shares traded a +$0.06 upside, Tuesday with 1,125 shares traded, up +$0.14 to $1.64, Monday with 2,628 shares traded with a NEGATIVE -$0.00 upside and last Friday’s 1060 shares traded with the share price closing FLAT to “push/promote” the exercise of warrants to add more unregistered shares to the “outstanding” … WHO and WHOM are trading – as if we didn’t know? Is BSTG “flipping the bird” at regulators?

 

Pre-open Indications: 4 HITs < BUY: Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.40), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.88), Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.47); SELL: Mesoblast (MESO -$0.39)> and 3 MISS < Maintaining SELL: Biostage (BSTG +$0.01); BUY: bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.75), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.85)>

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) - again, ReNeuron (RENE.L) - again, Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) - again, BioLife Solutions (BLFS) to name 5 of the 14 inclining of the 35

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) – yet, another again + one, Vericel (VCEL), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), bluebird bio (BLUE), Ultragenyx (RARE) to name 5 of the 20 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key Metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 14-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 0 of 20-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 14-upside were +0.27% (AGTC) to +3.44% (CLLS) while the 20-downside ranges from -0.10% (SGMO) to -6.06% (PSTI);

 

Friday’s (10 of14) incliners:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.59 after Thursday’s +$1.61, Wednesday’s -$5.29, Tuesday’s -$1.40 and Monday’s +$0.29);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$2.50 after Thursday’s +$0.50, Wednesday’s -$2.50 and Tuesday’s flat);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.84 after Thursday’s -$0.46, Wednesday’s -$4.25, Tuesday’s -$4.48 and Monday’s -$4.53);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.88 after Thursday’s +$0.41, Wednesday’s -$1.10, Tuesday’s -$0.93 and Monday’s -$1.58);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.82 after Thursday’s -$1.16, Wednesday’s -$2.57, Tuesday’s -$1.27 and Monday’s +$0.67);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.58 after Thursday’s +$0.01, Wednesday’s -$2.83, Tuesday’s -$3.44 and Monday’s +$0.04);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.47);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.46 after Thursday’s -$0.31);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.40 after Thursday’s -$1.09);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.29);

Friday’s (10 of 20) decliners:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.85 after Thursday’s -$2.96, Wednesday’s -$2.36, Tuesday’s -$4.78 and Monday’s -$4.97);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.46 after Thursday’s +$0.12 after Wednesday’s -$1.54);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.86 after Thursday’s -$0.40);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.85 after Thursday’s -$3.21, Wednesday’s -$5.24, Tuesday’s -$5.09 and Monday’s -$3.58);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.75);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.51 after Thursday’s -$0.82 and Wednesday’s -$1.14);
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.39);
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.28);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.24 after Thursday’s -$0.45);
  • Pluristem (PSTI -$0.23 after Thursday’s +$0.12 after Wednesday’s +$0.01);

Closing –1 –Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed up +0.90% and XBI closed flat 0.00%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +0.23% and XBI closed down -0.01%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -1.27% and XBI closed down -2.78%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.98% and XBI closed down -1.67%
  • Monday, the IBB closed down -0.37% and XBI closed down -1.47%

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +1.44 points or +8.47% at 18.45
  • Thursday was up +0.68 points or +4.16% at 17.01
  • Wednesday was down -0.79 points or -4.61% at 16.33
  • Tuesday was up +1.06 points or +6.25% at 17.18
  • Monday was down -0.01 points or -0.06% at 16.17

 

Upside volume:

  • Friday: 3 out of the 14-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 1 out of the 8-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 0 out of the 3-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 0 out of the 2-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 11-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Downside volume:

  • Friday: 0 out of the 20-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 5 out of the 21-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 2 out of the 31-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 0 out of the 31-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 0 out of the19-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 14-upside were +0.27% (AGTC) to +3.44% (CLLS) while the 20-downside ranges from -0.10% (SGMO) to -6.06% (PSTI);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 8-upside were +0.01% (RARE) to +3.27% (PSTI) while the 21-downside ranges from -0.58% (BSTG) to -5.06% (BLCM);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 3-upside were +0.27% (PSTI) to +3.64% (BSTG) while the 31-downside ranges from -0.64% (SLDB) to -7.08% (PGEN);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 2-upside were +1% (PGEN) to +9.99% (BSTG) while the 31-downside ranges from -0.27% (PSTI) to -9.04% (BLCM);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 11-upside were +0.04% (RARE) to +11.28% (BLCM) while the 19-downside ranges from -0.64% (MESO) to -5.15% (EDIT);

 

July, first month of Q3/21:

Friday closed negative with 14 advancers, 20 decliners and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 8 advancers, 21 decliners, 5 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 3 advancers, 31 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 2 advancers, 31 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday closed negative with 11 advancers, 19 decliners, 5 flat and 1 acquired

Friday closed positive with 27 advancers, 6 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Thursday closed barely positive with 17 advancers, 16 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 8 advancers, 25 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 7 advancers, 26 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Friday closed negative with 9 advancers, 24 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Thursday (7/1) closed positive with 25 advancers, 8 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I haven’t been wrong, we’re back on the roller-coaster and sentiment or any support is in the toilet!

The cell and gene therapy sector followed the stock market closing lower Friday, which ended a three-week win streak for the major indexes and adding some warning signs for investors.

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector. NO news has bake- in the decline of the sector.

The pace of growth for the 2nd half/21 will be hamstrung LPS (loss-per-share) without the usual insignificant company guidance however, keep an eye on “runways”.

I expect smaller and choppier gains, brace for more volatility.

The real issue is that Q2 earnings are going to “suck pound water”!

Next few months – unless, news of clinical results or an M&A after a choppy and marginal performance in the first half.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.