July 19, 2021 6:15pm

Following six (6) negative closes in a row and nine (9) of thirteen (13) sessions in July

Pre-open indications: 7 HITs and 3 MISS

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

It takes courage to not be discouraged by sector volatility

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers!

 

The Dow closed DOWN -725.81 points (-2.09%); the S&P closed DOWN -58.67 points (-1.59%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -152.25 points (-1.06%)

 

Henry’omics:

U.S. stocks fell destructively Monday, some say it’s on concern a rebound in Covid cases; I say it is a multitude of factors relate to the jinxing of fundamentals, the potential of massive government spending supporting increased inflation worries as well as the conflagration in Washington, DC.

  • OPEP's Sunday agreement to end production limits also weighed on the major stock indexes.

The Nasdaq lost 1.5% as the small-cap Russell 2000 dropped -1.9%, recovering after it briefly dropped into correction territory on an intraday basis - down more than 10% from its March high.

Covid cases have rebounded in the U.S. this month with the delta variant spreading among the unvaccinated. The U.S. is averaging nearly 30,000 new cases a day in the last seven days ending Friday, up from a seven-day average of around 11,000 cases a day a month ago, according to CDC data. <CNBC>

  • "There’s some concern too that maybe the economy is not going to open up as quickly as everyone thinks, and the big boom that everyone’s expecting is going to be more of a pop than a boom." < Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management in Chicago>

The CBOE Volatility index, a gauge of investor anxiety, gained 4.1 points to 22.50, its highest closing level in two months.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “sector woes follow markets weakness. The indexes have been pulling back, especially the Nasdaq while alternative indicators are sending more-negative signals, from declining market breadth as cell and gene therapy stocks continue under pressure” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12007

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Monday opened negative at 4/29, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 7/27, and 1 acquired, closing negative 4/30 and 1 acquired;

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: The “pump” is STILL promoting on Monday as 207 shares traded dropping -$0.01 to $1.70 after Friday’s +$0.01 with 307 shares traded (bought by whom), Thursday as 1,596 shares traded as with a close of -$0.01, Wednesday with 996 shares traded a +$0.06 upside, Tuesday with 1,125 shares traded, up +$0.14 to $1.64 and last Monday with 2,628 shares traded with a NEGATIVE -$0.00 upside to “push/promote” the exercise of warrants to add more unregistered shares to the “outstanding”?

 

Pre-open Indications: 7 HITs < SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.01); SELL: bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.14), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.199), Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.42), Vericel (VCEL -$0.78), Verastem (VSTM -$0.04), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.32), > and 3 MISS < Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.21), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$3.69); BUY: Mesoblast (MESO -$0.07)>  

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Editas Medicine (EDIT), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Pluristem (PSTI) to name 4 of the 4 inclining of the 35

Hammered in today’s market:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), MiMedx (MDXG) to name 5 of the 30 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key Metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 0 of the 4-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 4 of 30-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 4-upside were +1.40% (PSTI) to +2.85% (EDIT) while the 30-downside ranges from -0.10% (SGMO) to -7.57% (MDXG);

 

Monday’s (4 of 4) incliners:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$3.69);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$2.03);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.21);
  • Pluristem (PSTI +$-0.05);

Monday’s (10 of 30) decliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$4.40);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.23);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE-$1.48);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.19);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.07);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.99);
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.84);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.78);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.67);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.67);

Closing – 1 Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB closed up +0.68% and XBI closed up +0.16%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was up +4.05 points or +211.95% at 22.95

Upside volume:

  • Monday: 0 out of the 4-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

  • Monday: 4 out of the 30-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 4-upside were +1.40% (PSTI) to +2.85% (EDIT) while the 30-downside ranges from -0.10% (SGMO) to -7.57% (MDXG);

 

July, first month of Q3/21:

Monday (7/19) closed negative with 4 advancers, 30 decliners and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I’m still right … on negative influences killing our sector, we’re back on the roller-coaster and sentiment or any support is in the toilet!

Adding some warning signs for investors – Q2 earnings on the horizon.

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector. NO news has bake- in the decline of the sector.

The pace of growth for the 2nd half/21 will be hamstrung LPS (loss-per-share) without the usual insignificant company guidance however, keep an eye on “runways”.

I expect smaller and choppier gains, brace for more volatility.

The real issue is that Q2 earnings are going to “suck pond water”!

Next few months – unless, news of clinical results or an M&A after a choppy and marginal performance in the first half.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.