July 20, 2021 7:30pm

While blaming too much on COVID-19

Pre-open indications: 3 HITs and 4 MISS <although money was to be made on the bottom buying this a.m.>

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

It takes courage to not be discouraged by sector volatility

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers!

 

The Dow closed UP +549.95 points (+1.62%); the S&P closed UP +64.57 points (+1.52%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +223.89 points (+1.57%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes were reconsidering most of Monday’s pessimism in Tuesday's session, while pointing out that hospitalizations and deaths haven't risen as dramatically — and are far below where they were during the worst days of the COVID-19 outbreak.

The cell and gene therapy sector rally rebounded with broad-based gains, though it came on lighter volume.

Many of the cell and gene therapy/biotech stocks that were hit the hardest on Monday, on multiple concerns regained some of their losses Tuesday after six (6) down sessions.

  • As funds, electronic/algorithmic traders alongside investors stepped in to buy the dip.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “recognition for the oversold or as good as it can get. Very thin trading in month, so far has acerbated pricing movements” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12010

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Tuesday opened positive at 27/5, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 26/7, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing positive 29/6, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened negative at 4/29, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 7/27, and 1 acquired, closing negative 4/30 and 1 acquired;

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Tuesday’s volume of 49 shares with a flat outcome proves I am RIGHT re the “pump” promoting after Monday’s 207 shares traded dropping -$0.01 to $1.70 after Friday’s +$0.01 with 307 shares traded (bought by whom), Thursday as 1,596 shares traded as with a close of -$0.01, Wednesday with 996 shares traded a +$0.06 upside and last Tuesday with 1,125 shares traded, up +$0.14 to $1.64.

  • WHY the “push/promote”; it is to exercise warrants adding more unregistered shares to the “outstanding” which is BSTG’s ONLY vehicle to raise money for operation continuation – they’re BROKE – so the only runway access is ... what?

 

Pre-open Indications: 4 HITs < SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.00); BUY: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.63), Voyager therapeutics (VYGR +$0.11), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +7.18),> and 3 MISS < CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.59), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.15 Pluristem (PSTI -$0.08)>

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Intellia therapeutics (NTLA), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Vericel (VCEL), Ultragenyx (RARE) to name 5 of the 29 inclining of the 35

Hammered in today’s market:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) - again, Pluristem (PSTI) to name 4 of the 4 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key Metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 29-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 1 of 4-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 29-upside were +1.36% (SAGE) to +11.71% (MDXG) while the 4-downside ranges from -0.26% (GBT) to -2.22% (PSTI);

 

Tuesday’s (10 of 29) incliners:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$7.86 after Monday’s +$2.23);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$7.18 after Monday’s +$3.69);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$3.48 after Monday’s +$2.03);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$2.44 after Monday’s -$0.78);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE =$2.29 after Monday’s -$1.07);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.79 after Monday’s -$0.67);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.65 after Monday’s -$0.67);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$1.40 after Monday’s +$4.40);
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$1.20 after Monday’s -$0.84);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.09 after Monday’s -$0.99);

Tuesday’s (4 of 4) decliners:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.59);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.15 after Monday’s +$1.21);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.08 after Monday’s -$1.19);
  • Pluristem (PSTI -$0.08 after Monday’s +$0.05);

Closing – 1 – Biostage (BSTG) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +1.42% and XBI closed up +2.31%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +0.68% and XBI closed up +0.16%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was down -2.77 points or -12.31% at 19.73
  • Monday was up +4.05 points or +21.95% at 22.95

Upside volume:

  • Tuesday: 5 out of the 29-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 0 out of the 4-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

  • Tuesday: 1 out of the 4-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 4 out of the 30-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 29-upside were +1.36% (SAGE) to +11.71% (MDXG) while the 4-downside ranges from -0.26% (GBT) to -2.22% (PSTI);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 4-upside were +1.40% (PSTI) to +2.85% (EDIT) while the 30-downside ranges from -0.10% (SGMO) to -7.57% (MDXG);

 

July, first month of Q3/21:

Tuesday closed positive with 29 advancers, 4 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (7/19) closed negative with 4 advancers, 30 decliners and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I’m still right … as I had stated, “I expect smaller and choppier gains, brace for more volatility.”

The higher share pricing rises and “quickens” in the immediate future, the algorithmic “Pac-Mans” will eat the upside …

Adding some warning signs for investors – Q2 earnings on the horizon.

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector. NO news has bake- in the decline of the sector.

Keep an eye on “runways”.

The real issue is that Q2 earnings are going to “suck pond water”!

Next few months – unless, news of clinical results or an M&A after a choppy and marginal performance in the first half.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.