July 21, 2021 5:03pm

Pre-open indications: 6 HITs and 3 MISS <although money was to be made on the bottom buying this a.m.>

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

It takes courage to not be discouraged by sector volatility

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers! 

The Dow closed UP +286.01 points (+0.83%); the S&P closed UP +35.63 points (+0.82%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +133.08 points (+0.92%)

 

Henry’omics:

A second straight advance …

U.S. stocks and the cell and gene therapy sector are higher on Wednesday as equities continue their rebound from a one-day rout to start the week.

A macro sentiment update: Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) stock is trading nearly flat even after the drugmaker reported better than expected second-quarter earnings and revenue and also raised its 2021 guidance. Moderna (MRNA) joined the S&P 500, giving the stock a 20% boost from when the addition was announced a week ago. Its shares are trading 4% higher.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “algorithms could hack share pricing upsides” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12012

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Wednesday opened positive at 17/16, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 26/7, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing positive 27/7 and 1 acquired;

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Wednesday closed +$0.01 to $1.71 with 200 shares traded after Tuesday’s volume of 49 shares with a flat outcome proves I am RIGHT re the “pump” promoting, Monday’s 207 shares traded dropping -$0.01 to $1.70, Friday’s +$0.01 with 307 shares traded (bought by whom), Thursday as 1,596 shares traded as with a close of -$0.01 and last Wednesday with 996 shares traded a +$0.06 upside.

  • WHY the “push/promote”; it is to exercise warrants adding more unregistered shares to the “outstanding” which is BSTG’s ONLY vehicle to raise money for operation continuation – they’re BROKE – so the only runway access is ?

 

Pre-open Indications: 6 HITs <SELL into Strength:  Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.13), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$3.08), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$6.63), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.62); BUY:  bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.16), CRISPR therapeutics (CRSP +$4.31), > and 3 MISS < SELL: Biostage (BSTG +$0.00); SELL: Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$01.15); BUY: Global Blood Solutions (GBT -$0.06)>   

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) - again, Vericel (VCEL), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), ReNeuron (RENE.L), to name 5 of the 27 inclining of the 35

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx (RARE), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY), Verastem (VSTM), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Mesoblast (MESO), Voyager therapeutics (VYGR) to name 7 of the 7 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key Metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 27-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 1 of 7-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 27-upside were +0.16% (IONS) to +6.77% (BLCM) while the 7-downside ranges from -0.20% (GBT) to -2.99% (VSTM);

 

Wednesday’s (10 of 27) incliners:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$6.63 after Tuesday’s +$7.18 and Monday’s +$3.69);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$4.31 after Tuesday’s -$1.59);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$2.04 after Tuesday’s +$2.44 and Monday’s -$0.78);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.77 after Tuesday’s +$3.48 and Monday’s +$2.03);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$1.00 after Tuesday’s +$1.40 and Monday’s +$4.40);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.64 after Tuesday’s -$0.15 and Monday’s +$1.21);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.62);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.65 after Tuesday’s +$1.65 and Monday’s -$0.67);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.38);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.34 after Tuesday’s +$1.79 and Monday’s -$0.67);

Wednesday’s (7 of 7) decliners:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$3.08 after Tuesday’s +$7.86 and Monday’s +$2.23);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.64 after Tuesday’s +$2.29 after Monday’s -$1.07);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.17);
  • Verastem (VSTM -$0.11);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.06 after Tuesday’s -$0.08 and Monday’s -$1.19);
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.02);
  • Voyager Therapeutics *VYGR -$0.01);

Closing 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +0.46% and XBI closed up +0.92%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -1.78 points or -9.02% at 17.95

Upside volume:

  • Wednesday: 2 out of the 27-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

  • Wednesday: 1 out of the 7-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 27-upside were +0.16% (IONS) to +6.77% (BLCM) while the 7-downside ranges from -0.20% (GBT) to -2.99% (VSTM);

 

July, first month of Q3/21:

Wednesday closed positive with 27 advancers, 7 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 29 advancers, 4 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (7/19) closed negative with 4 advancers, 30 decliners and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: A recovering sector …

 I’m still right … as I had stated, “I expect smaller and choppier gains, brace for more volatility.”

The higher share pricing rises and “quickens” in the immediate future, the algorithmic “Pac-Mans” will eat the upside …

Adding some warning signs for investors – Q2 earnings on the horizon.

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector. NO news has bake- in the decline of the sector.

Keep an eye on “runways”.

The real issue is that Q2 earnings are going to “suck pond water”!

Next few months – unless, news of clinical results or an M&A after a choppy and marginal performance in the first half.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.