July 23, 2021 5:16pm

Biostage Chronicles: WHAT is the end game or play-book for this company, it has NOT done ANYTHING to monetize their asset of an approved IND with NO clinical trial initiative … so WHERE and WHAT is the value proposition?

Pre-open indications: 4 HITs

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

Week in review …

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers! 

The Dow closed UP +228.20 points (+0.68%); the S&P closed UP +44.31 points (+1.01%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +152.39 points (+1.04%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose Friday with hitting new records as they overcame concerns about economic growth from earlier in the week.

For the week, the S&P 500 rose +2%, the Nasdaq added +2.8% and the Dow ended up +1.1%.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “TGIF. Although investors are unsure whether distressed sector equities are ready for serious infusion as earnings releases will poke holes in the dam” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12016

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Friday opened negative at 6/27, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 9/24, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative 10/23, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened negative at 7/25, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 6/26, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative 6/26, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened positive at 17/16, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 26/7, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing positive 27/7 and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened positive at 27/5, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 26/7, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing positive 29/6, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened negative at 4/29, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 7/27, and 1 acquired, closing negative 4/30 and 1 acquired;

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Friday and Thursday closed flat with 200 shares traded, Wednesday closed +$0.01 to $1.71 with 200 shares traded, Tuesday’s volume of 49 shares with a flat outcome proves I am RIGHT re the “pump” promoting, Monday’s 207 shares traded dropping -$0.01 to $1.70, and last Friday’s +$0.01 with 307 shares traded (bought by whom)

  • WHY the “push/promote”; it is to exercise warrants adding more unregistered shares to the “outstanding” which is BSTG’s ONLY vehicle to raise money for operation continuation – they’re BROKE – so the only runway access is WHAT?

 

Pre-open Indications: 4 HITs <SELL: Biostage (BSTG +$0.00), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.70), bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.98), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$2.12)

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) - again, Ionis Pharmaceuticals IONS) - again, Vericel (VCEL), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) to name 5 of the 10 inclining of the 35

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) - again, CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) - again, Regenxbio (RGNX), Editas Medicine (EDIT), bluebird bio (BLUE) to name 5 of the 23 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key Metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 0 of the 10-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 4 of 23-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 10-upside were +0.27% (FATE) to +1.90% (MDXG) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.66% (ATHX) to -27.88% (ADVM);

 

Friday’s (10 of 10) incliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$1.00);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.60 after Thursday’s +$1.72, Wednesday’s -$3.08, Tuesday’s +$7.86 and Monday’s +$2.23);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.54);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.40 after Thursday’s -$1.55, Wednesday’s +$2.04, Tuesday’s +$2.44 and Monday’s -$0.78);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.25 after Thursday’s +$0.61, Wednesday’s +$0.34, Tuesday’s +$1.79 and Monday’s -$0.67);
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.22);
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.18);
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.09);

Friday’s (10 of 23) decliners:

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$10.17 after Thursday’s -$4.87, Wednesday’s +$6.63, Tuesday’s +$7.18 and Monday’s +$3.69);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.50 after Thursday’s -$3.68, Wednesday’s +$4.31, Tuesday’s -$1.59);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$2.33);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$2.17 after Thursday’s -$1.08, Wednesday’s +$0.64, Tuesday’s -$0.15 and Monday’s +$1.21);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$1.00)
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.83 after Thursday’s -$1.36, Wednesday’s -$1.64, Tuesday’s +$2.29 and Monday’s -$1.07);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.75 after Thursday’s -$1.10, Wednesday’s -$0.06, Tuesday’s -$0.08 and Monday’s -$1.19);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.74 after Thursday’s -$1.74 after Wednesday’s +$0.62);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.70);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.48 after Thursday’s -$0.63);

Closing – 1 flat – Biostage (BSTG) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed up +0.88% and XBI closed down -1.14%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +0.26% and XBI closed down -1.26%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +0.46% and XBI closed up +0.92%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +1.42% and XBI closed up +2.31%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +0.68% and XBI closed up +0.16%

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.49 points or -2.77% at 17.20
  • Thursday was down -0.22 points or -1.23% at 17.69
  • Wednesday was down -1.78 points or -9.02% at 17.95
  • Tuesday was down -2.77 points or -12.31% at 19.73
  • Monday was up +4.05 points or +21.95% at 22.95

 

Upside volume:

Friday: 0 out of the 10-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Thursday: 1 out of the 6-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Wednesday: 2 out of the 27-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Tuesday: 5 out of the 29-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Monday: 0 out of the 4-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Downside volume:

Friday: 4 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Thursday: 3 out of the 26-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Wednesday: 1 out of the 7-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Tuesday: 1 out of the 4-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Monday: 4 out of the 30-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

Friday’s percentage (%) of the 10-upside were +0.27% (FATE) to +1.90% (MDXG) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.66% (ATHX) to -27.88% (ADVM);

Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 6-upside were +0.16% (FATE) to +2.12% (IONS) while the 26-downside ranges from -0.90% (RGNX) to -9.41% (KDNY);

Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 27-upside were +0.16% (IONS) to +6.77% (BLCM) while the 7-downside ranges from -0.20% (GBT) to -2.99% (VSTM);

Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 29-upside were +1.36% (SAGE) to +11.71% (MDXG) while the 4-downside ranges from -0.26% (GBT) to -2.22% (PSTI);

Monday’s percentage (%) of the 4-upside were +1.40% (PSTI) to +2.85% (EDIT) while the 30-downside ranges from -0.10% (SGMO) to -7.57% (MDXG);

 

July, first month of Q3/21:

Friday closed negative with 10 advancers, 23 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 6 advancers, 26 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed positive with 27 advancers, 7 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 29 advancers, 4 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (7/19) closed negative with 4 advancers, 30 decliners and 1 acquired

Friday closed negative with 14 advancers, 20 decliners and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 8 advancers, 21 decliners, 5 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 3 advancers, 31 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 2 advancers, 31 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (7/12) closed negative with 11 advancers, 19 decliners, 4 flat and 1 acquired

Friday closed positive with 27 advancers, 6 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Thursday closed barely positive with 17 advancers, 16 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 8 advancers, 25 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 7 advancers, 26 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (7/5) was a holiday

Friday closed negative with 9 advancers, 24 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Thursday (7/1) closed positive with 25 advancers, 8 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Reiterating, “The week ended on a down note that I was expecting so: I’m still right … as I had previously stated, “I expect smaller and choppier gains, brace for more volatility.”

Sector share pricing was subjected to a negative headwind as I had stated, “the algorithmic “Pac-Mans” ate the upside”.

Adding some warning signs for investors – Q2 earnings on the horizon.

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector. NO news has bake- in the decline of the sector.

Keep an eye on “runways” … as quarterly earnings come out

The real issue is that Q2 earnings are going to “suck pond water”!

Next few months – unless, news of clinical results or an M&A after a choppy and marginal performance in the first half.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.