RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: when and where are the bounces for the oversold?

July 28, 2021 8:00am

Risk and sentiment are on the edge and staring into the abyss with the advent of earnings’ releases opening the floodgates next week

Pre-open indications: 1 SELL: ALNY; 7 BUYs: BLUE, IONS, SAGE, QURE, RARE, EDIT, CRSP and 1 Maintain SELL: BSTG

My version of the morning’s “indications” is about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session

There is no breadline for fact and numbers-based share pricing intelligence!

Dow futures are DOWN -0.02% (-5 points), S&P futures are UP +0.09% (+4 point) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.29% (+43 points)

U.S. stock index futures were fluctuating to the upside in Wednesday’s pre-open after indexes pulled back from record highs on Tuesday,

European markets were higher awaiting U.S. earnings and Fed policy remarks,

Asia-Pacific markets were mostly lower activated by regulatory fears over sectors such as technology and private education.

Data Docket: looking ahead to another set of reports on Wednesday; i.e., release of monetary policy statement from the Fed.

• inflation has been spiking for both consumer and producers, challenging the Fed's ability to keep its ultra-accommodative monetary policy in place.

Henry’omics:

The cell and gene therapy sector is still suffering from low volume volatility …

Despite Tuesday’s dip, indexes are still on track to end July higher: The S&P is up 2.4%, the Nasdaq +1.1% and Dow 1.6%.

Tuesday’s evening’s recap: “wipeout with low extremely volume. However, the 3 p.m. hour saw a few buyers coming-in for scarce bottom fishing” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12021

• The Nasdaq closed DOWN -180.14 points (-1.21%);
• The IBB closed down -0.81% and XBI closed down -1%;
• Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 7-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 1 of 25-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
• The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) was up +1.78 points or +10.13% at 19.36
• Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 7-upside were +0.66% (ATHX) to +4.52% (QURE) while the 25-downside ranges from -0.09% (RARE) to -4.53% (ADVM);

Week to date 2 negative closes

Q3/21: July, 5 positive, 1 holiday and 13 negative closes

Q2/21:

• June: 15 positive and 8 negative closes
• May:  8 positive, 12 negative closes and 1 holiday
• April: 11 negative and 10 positive closes

Q1/21:

• March: 10 positive, 12 negative and 1 neutral closes
• February: 9 positive, 10 negative closes and 1 holiday
• January: 10 positive, 9 negative closes and 1 holiday

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles - Maintaining Sell – Could the share price stay up if it wasn’t being “pumped”?

Biostage (BSTG) closed flat on Tuesday after being down -$0.06 to $1.65 on Monday with 406 shares traded after being flat, Friday and Thursday with 200 shares traded (each session) after last Wednesday’s +$0.01 with 200 shares traded.

Question#1: WHAT is the end game or play-book for this company, it has not done ANYTHING to monetize their asset of an approved IND with NO clinical trial initiative … so WHERE and WHAT is the value proposition?

Question#2: Is it “alleged market manipulation” i.e., “promotional’ tactics that highlight how this equity is traded on the over-the-counter market?

MINORITY PUBLIC shareholders are waiting for the specific time, watching and weighing responses to MAINTAIN their RIGHTS.

The morning’s indications:

BUY:

bluebird bio (BLUE) closed down -$0.26 to $24.95 after Monday’s +$0.20 to $26.18 after Friday’s down -$1.00 to $25.98 and Thursday’s -$0.51 to $26.98 and last Wednesday’s $27.49 with a positive +$0.64 or +2.74% pre-market indication.

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down again -$1.79 to $117.43 after Monday’s -$3.05 to $119.11 after Friday’s -$2.50 to $122.27 and has a positive pre-open indication of +0.37 or +0.32%.

Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed down -$0.58 to $39.27 after Monday’s $39.85, Friday’s $40.84, Thursday’s $43.01 and last Wednesday’s $44.09 with a positive +$0.72 or +1.83% pre-market indication.

Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$1.63 to $132.37 after Monday’s $134.00 and last Friday’s $137.71, Thursday’s $147.88 and the previous Wednesday’s $152.75 with a positive +$0.63 or +0.48% pre-market indication

• NTLA is projected to report earnings of -$0.61 per share, which would represent no growth from the prior-year quarter. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $12.03 million, down 26.03% from the year-ago period. NTLA's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of -$2.56 per share and revenue of $36.32 million. These results would represent year-over-year changes of -6.67% and -37.37%, respectively.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed down -$1.05 to $36.37 after Monday’s -$0.61 to $37.42 with a positive +$0.36 or +0.99% aftermarket indication based on Biogen (BIIB) and IONS reporting positive topline P1b clinical study data on investigational Alzheimer's disease treatment at AAIC.

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed down -$1.01 to $43.33 after Monday’s $44.34, Friday’s $45.03, Thursday’s $45.77 and last Wednesday’s $47.51 with a positive +$0.67 or +1.55% pre-market indication

• SAGE reports next week, 8/3 and is expected to post a quarterly loss of -$1.69 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +18.8%. Revenues are expected to be $2.04 million, up 87.2% from the year-ago quarter. <Zacks Consensus Estimates>

uniQure NV (QURE) closed up +$1.22 to $28.23 after Monday’s +$1.00 and has a positive +$0.44 or +1.56% aftermarket indication after a net income earnings’ release i.e., strong beat.

Ultragenyx (RARE) closed down -$0.07 to $79.29 after Monday’s $79.36 and last Friday’s $82.72, Thursday’s $83.55 and the previous Wednesday’s $84.91 with a positive +$0.78 or +0.98% aftermarket indication.

• The U.S. FDA and the European Commission have granted Orphan Drug Designation for UX053 for the treatment of Glycogen Storage Disease Type III (GSDIII), a metabolic disease that affects more than 10,000 patients in the developed world.

SELL:

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$1.52 to $176.59 after Monday’s $178.11 and last Friday’s $182.41, Thursday’s $181.81 and the previous Wednesday’s $180.09 with NO aftermarket indication

• ALNY reports earnings on Tuesday, 8/3 and is expected to post a quarterly loss of -$1.57 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -0.6%. Revenues are expected to be $199.77 million, up 92.2% from the year-ago quarter. < Zacks Consensus Estimates>

The BOTTOM LINE: I used to think negativity was a state of mind. Now, having watched for long enough, I come to realize negativity can be a character trait … the big question is when will the rebound for the oversold … occur?

Volatility is still front-and-center in the sector …

• Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.81% and the IBB closed down -1%
• Monday, the IBB closed down -1.89% and XBI closed down -1.81%
• Friday, the IBB closed up +0.88% and XBI closed down -1.14%
• Thursday, the IBB closed up +0.26% and XBI closed down -1.26%
• Last Wednesday, the IBB closed up +0.46% and XBI closed up +0.92%

The cell and gene therapy sector is still confusing as sentiment rages and fades, volume slithers, momentum is burped and usurped as fundamentals seem ignored.

uniQure NV (QURE) released net income earnings’ release. More Q2 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) release date: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) on 8/2; Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) release “earnings” on 8/3 followed by Vericel (VCEL), MiMedx (MDXG), AxoGen (AXGN) and Editas medicine (EDIT) on Wednesday, 8/4, Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) on 8/5 and Athersys ATHX) on 8/9 – so far.

Remember: Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out.

Risk is no doubt increasing as we head into the troublesome August and September months

RMi’s daily report is a primer that may say little or a lot; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated.

My motto, never leave an investor uninformed about what I know!

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.