July 30, 2021 5:13pm
Breakdowns were again the theme of the session as volatility wreaked havoc with low volume pricing choppiness in July
Pre-open indications: 5 HITs and 2 MISS
My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.
Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers!
The Dow closed DOWN -149.06 points (-0.42%); the S&P closed DOWN -23.89 points (-0.54%) while the Nasdaq closed down -105.59 points (-0.71%)
Henry’omics:
U.S. indexes fell on Friday, but the S&P 500 is still on track to notch its sixth (6th) straight positive month.
In July, the Nasdaq jumped +1.2%, the Dow +1.3%, while the S&P 500 gained 2.3%.
Bada bing, the Russell 2000 fell -0.6%.
It’s a Friday and the end of the month – I expected negativity for the cell and gene therapy sector.
Data Docket: The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.5% in June year over year. It marked a sharp acceleration in inflation but came in slightly below an expectation of a 3.6% jump.
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “feelin’ the squeeze as July ends on a sour note. Wait until next week as earnings flood the week and summer seasonality sets in” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12027
Q2/21 Earnings and dates of releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:
- Friday opened negative at 11/19, 4 flats and 1 acquired, strayed negative at the mid-day to 10/20, 4 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative 10/22, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
- Thursday opened positive at 21/11, 2 flats and 1 acquired, strayed negative at the mid-day to 11/20, 3 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative 8/23, 3 flats and 1 acquired;
- Wednesday opened positive at 29/3, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 28/4, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing positive 31/1, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
- Tuesday opened negative at 2/31, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 6/26, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative 7/25, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
- Monday opened negative at 11/21, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 9/21, 4 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative 12/21, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Friday closed flat with 170 shares traded after Thursday closed flat with 1 share traded, Wednesday’s flat with 350 shares traded, Tuesday closed down -$0.00 with 43 shares traded, Monday’s downside of -$0.06 to $1.65 with 406 shares traded after Friday and Thursday closing flat with 200 shares traded.
- Notice, how the share trades without any “push/promote”;
- They’re BROKE – so WHY are they “pumping” to buy a few days of a “runway”?
Pre-open Indications: 5 HITs <SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.00); BUY: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.02), SELL: Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.04); SELL into Strength: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$4.83), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.89)> and 2 MISS < Pluristem (PSTI -$0.06), Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.33)>
There are clear winners and losers
Jumping with share pricing momentum:
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) - again, CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI), MiMedx (MDXG), AxoGen (AXGN), Athersys (ATHX), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM), Chinook therapeutics (KDNY), Solid Biosciences (SLDB) to name 10 of the 10 inclining of the 35
Hammered in today’s market:
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Cellectis SA (CLLS) to name 5 of the 22 declining of the 35 covered
Key Metrics:
- Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 10-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 2 of 22-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Friday’s percentage (%) of the 10-upside were +0.23% (KDNY) to +14.49% (BCLI) while the 22-downside ranges from -0.10% (EDIT) to -4.62% (ADVM);
Friday’s (10 of 10) incliners:
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$4.83 after Thursday’s +$0.85, Wednesday’s +$3.80, Tuesday’s -$1.63 and Monday’s -$3.71);
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.02 after Thursday’s -$0.75, Wednesday’s +$2.32, Tuesday’s +$1.79 after Monday’s -$3.05);
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.51);
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.46 after Thursday’s -$1.05 after Wednesday’s +$1.36 and Tuesday’s -$1.05);
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.17 after Thursday’s +$0.14);
- MiMedx (MDXG +$0.16);
- Athersys (ATHX +$0.05 after Thursday’s +$0.02);
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.03 after Thursday’s -$0.49);
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.01);
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.01);
Friday’s (10 of 22) decliners:
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$3.24 after Thursday’s +$1.22, Wednesday’s +$4.68, Tuesday’s -$2.87 and Monday’s -$3.18);
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.89);
- Vericel (VCEL -$0.83 after Thursday’s -$0.39);
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.60 after Thursday’s -$0.43);
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.52 after Thursday’s -$0.95 and Wednesday’s +$2.01);
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.49 after Thursday’s +$0.41, Wednesday’s +$1.34, Tuesday’s +$0.38 and Monday’s -$1.43);
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.40 after Thursday’s -$0.52);
- Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.33);
- bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.25);
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.23 after Thursday’s -$1.45, Wednesday’s +$1.38, Tuesday’s -$0.76 and Monday’s -$1.64);
Closing – 2 flats – ReNeuron (RENE.L), Biostage (BSTG) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired
Stats:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Friday, the IBB closed down -0.01% and XBI closed down -1.41%
- Thursday, the IBB closed down -0.61% and XBI closed down -1.66%
- Wednesday, the IBB closed up +2.81% and XBI closed up +3.50%
- Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.81% and XBI closed down -1%
- Monday, the IBB closed down -1.89% and XBI closed down -1.81%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Friday was up +0.53 points or +2.99% at 18.23
- Thursday was down -0.61 points or -3.33% at 17.70
- Wednesday was down -1.05 points or -5.42% at 18.31
- Tuesday was up +1.78 points or +10.13% at 19.36
- Monday was up +0.38 points or +2.21% at 17.58
Upside volume:
Friday: 3 out of the 10-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Thursday: 0 out of the 8-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Wednesday: 2 out of the 31-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Tuesday: 1 out of the 7-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Monday: 2 out of the 12-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Downside volume:
Friday: 2 out of the 22-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Thursday: 1 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Wednesday: 0 out of the 1-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Tuesday: 1 out of the 25-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Monday:3 out of the 21-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …
Friday’s percentage (%) of the 10-upside were +0.23% (KDNY) to +14.49% (BCLI) while the 22-downside ranges from -0.10% (EDIT) to -4.62% (ADVM);
Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 8-upside were +0.29% (EDIT) to +1.73% (MESO) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.15% (ALNY) to -4.26% (RGNX);
Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 31-upside were +0.31% (BLUE) to +7.21% (BCLI) while the 1-downside ranges -1.42% (MESO);
Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 7-upside were +0.66% (ATHX) to +4.52% (QURE) while the 25-downside ranges from -0.09% (RARE) to -4.53% (ADVM);
Monday’s percentage (%) of the 12-upside were +0.30% (VSTM) to +3.84% (QURE) while the 21-downside ranges from -1.38% (MESO) to -4.68% (RGNX);
July, first month of Q3/21:
Friday closed negative with 10 advancers, 22 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired
Thursday closed negative with 8 advancers, 23 decliners, 3 flats and 1 acquired
Wednesday closed positive with 31 advancers, 1 decliner, 2 flats and 1 acquired
Tuesday closed negative with 7 advancers, 25 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired
Monday (7/26) closed negative with 12 advancers, 21 decliners,1 flat and 1 acquired
Friday closed negative with 10 advancers, 23 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Thursday closed negative with 6 advancers, 26 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired
Wednesday closed positive with 27 advancers, 7 decliners and 1 acquired
Tuesday closed positive with 29 advancers, 4 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Monday (7/19) closed negative with 4 advancers, 30 decliners and 1 acquired
Friday closed negative with 14 advancers, 20 decliners and 1 acquired
Thursday closed negative with 8 advancers, 21 decliners, 5 flat and 1 acquired
Wednesday closed negative with 3 advancers, 31 decliners and 1 acquired
Tuesday closed negative with 2 advancers, 31 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Monday (7/12) closed negative with 11 advancers, 19 decliners, 4 flat and 1 acquired
Friday closed positive with 27 advancers, 6 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Thursday closed barely positive with 17 advancers, 16 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Wednesday closed negative with 8 advancers, 25 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Tuesday closed negative with 7 advancers, 26 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Monday (7/5) was a holiday
Friday closed negative with 9 advancers, 24 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
Thursday (7/1) closed positive with 25 advancers, 8 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired
The BOTTOM LINE: There are still some not-so-distant jitters and negativity whispers about next week’s earnings releases’ and I think some underlying worries re sector share pricings.
As I stated yesterday (Thursday), “The oversold got on the horse and rode” … right into the wall of worry as CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP) reports earnings and LPS (loss-per-share) results are to be released in bulk next week
A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector. NO news has bake- in the decline of the sector.
Keep an eye on “runways” … as quarterly earnings come out
We have seen the second release of earnings (QURE and CRSP); but, will the remainder of Q2 earnings “suck pond water”?
I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.